Carbon Dating
Available at 250-1 with the bookies and not tempting, even at those odds. In his last three races, he has beaten a total of just one horse, finishing last of five in a trial race round Epsom in April and last of 11 in the Irish 2,000 Guineas when last seen. Hard to find a reason why he should do better this time.
Elm Park
Unfashionably bred but improved throughout his juvenile season, winning four times and peaking with a Group One success in the Racing Post Trophy, which has been won by a subsequent Derby winner three times since 2004. Beaten six lengths in the Dante on his reappearance but the two in front of him were race-fit, whereas his preparation had been interrupted, so perhaps he will fare better this time. But the impression is that he may lack the necessary pace for a Derby run on drying ground and he did not seem at ease in a recent gallop at this track.
Epicuris
This French horse would have run in the Chantilly equivalent last Sunday but for red tape. He has become hard to manage at the starting stalls and requires the help of a horse whisperer, to which British officials have no objection but which the French would not allow. He won a Group One race as a two-year-old but all his form since his debut run has been in small fields on soft ground, making him hard to assess in this context. He won’t get soft ground here unless the forecast is wildly wrong and he is unlikely to be allowed to set a steady pace, as he has been doing. If, by any chance, he is a better horse for settling behind a lead and copes well with a sound surface, he will go close, but that is quite a risk for a punter to take on minimal evidence. There is some hope in his pedigree that dry ground may be fine for him but overall his profile is that of a horse short on speed.
Giovanni Canaletto
Bred to be good, as a brother to the 2013 Derby winner and a half-brother to another horse who won £1m in prize money. The issue with him has been racecourse experience, or lack thereof. He was third of 18 on his debut and then won a minor race. His reappearance this spring was delayed by an infection and, when he did make it back to the track a fortnight ago, he was beaten by a filly who had been running in handicaps. But he finished very strongly that day, in a contest that did not work out well for hold-up horses. If, as seems likely, he is fitter and more streetwise for the experience, he must be a major player here. The distance and ground should suit and he will have the invaluable help of Ryan Moore. A longer gap since his last race would have been preferable and he may still be “babyish”, as his trainer called him after that last race, but he looks the right type to run well.
Golden Horn
Became a hot Derby favourite quite unexpectedly by winning the Dante Stakes as third-favourite, powering past Jack Hobbs and Elm Park to win by two and three-quarter lengths. The form of his two previous races has been working out well and he caught the eye of some form judges as early as his debut, so the Dante was no one-off flash in the pan. His pedigree is equivocal on the subject of his stamina for this mile and a half but his performances on the track strongly suggest it should not be a problem. He is likely to settle well in midfield before finishing powerfully and it will take a fine rival or bad luck to stop him.
Hans Holbein
Closely related to an Irish Leger winner and it would be no surprise if he also ended up in long-distance races. His trainer, Aidan O’Brien, said this week: “He will probably end up getting further than a mile and a half,” which is not the sort of admission you make about an expected Derby winner, given that the bloodstock market favours speed so heavily over stamina these days. Hans Holbein took time to get off the mark, scoring at the third attempt in April before making all on soft ground in the Chester Vase, holding off Storm The Stars. He may again race from the front here but, on a drying surface and against classier rivals, he will surely be vulnerable.
Jack Hobbs
Became the Derby favourite after winning by 12 lengths at Sandown in April at a time when no other candidate for the race seemed able to run an impressive trial. But that was just a handicap and he faced a much greater test in the Dante, in which he was eventually second to Golden Horn. That was a fine effort but there is no clear reason why he should turn the tables now, especially as he seems less likely than the Dante winner to be suited to Epsom’s unique demands. His trainer plans to walk the course on Saturday morning to ensure the ground still has enough give for him to be allowed to take his chance.
Kilimanjaro
Was well beaten in two juvenile runs on fast ground at Gowran but has blossomed, having been given time, distance and a hood. Followed up his maiden win at Dundalk by landing the Lingfield Derby Trial a fortnight later, but that looked a weak renewal of a race that has hardly been influential in recent years. Even in victory around a course that has some of Epsom’s undulations, he did not totally convince as a horse who would be suited by the Derby course. Could run on into, say, fourth if allowed to do his own thing but it’s possible he may be used to set the race up for Giovanni Canaletto.
Moheet
There’s a strong suspicion that we haven’t seen the best of this horse, though whether he can make his stamina stretch to this mile and a half seems rather doubtful. He was supposed to be a miler and ran a fair race to be third in the Craven back in April, having been held up off a steady pace. But the Guineas went badly wrong for him, his jockey riding the first two furlongs without a stirrup and then steering an erratic course in the closing stages that brought them into collision with a rival when he still had a chance to get involved. There is better to come but the likelihood is that it will require a step back down in distance.
Rogue Runner
German-based 100-1 shot who is hard to fancy on the strength of his fifth place in a Group Three at Frankfurt when last seen. He was favourite for that, which makes his ploddy effort the more disappointing. If the soft ground was to blame, then he might do better here but his two wins were in weak contests at Hoppegarten and he has a massive amount to prove.
Storm The Stars
Took him four attempts to win a race but, in hindsight, his first two efforts in October look pretty good. Having been beaten a neck by Aloft, who was later second in Elm Park’s Group One, he was beaten a head by Golden Horn. Storm The Stars finally broke his maiden at Leicester in April and stepped up on that when chasing home Hans Holbein at Chester. Most recently, he made all to win a Goodwood race that is seen by some as the weakest of all recognised Derby trials. That was his sixth start but he still seemed to be learning on the job and was described by connections as “mentally immature” and “a big, naughty teenager, not a professional yet”. The Leger, rather than the Derby, was supposed to be the aim but he takes his chance in an open year. If he got his own way in front, he could stay on well enough for a place.
Success Days
Not really bred to stay this far or be this good but has earned his entry with comfortable wins in both the Ballysax and the Derrinstown, two key Irish trials for this race. Both of those were staged on very testing ground, something this grey is bred to appreciate but is not likely to get here. “Soft ground is definitely the key to him,” his trainer said after his latest success. On a drier surface, he seems sure to be caught flat-footed, as appeared to happen to him on the final run of his juvenile year.
