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Sports Illustrated
Sports Illustrated
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Ryan Phillips

The Concerning Numbers Behind the Dodgers' Midseason Malaise

Somehow, the loaded Los Angeles Dodgers are scuffling. The two-time defending World Series champions have shocked baseball by losing eight of their last nine games entering Monday night’s matchup with the Royals, and they’re 9–12 in the second half. A look inside the numbers shows this isn’t just a random midseason losing streak. The Dodgers have some serious problems right now.

Now, let’s be real: no one is particularly worried about the Dodgers. Yet, at least. They’re still overwhelming favorites to win the World Series, and their addition of ace Tarik Skubal at the trade deadline only enhanced those chances. But beneath the surface, L.A. has shown some cracks since the All-Star break, and if the playoffs started today, the champs wouldn’t even get a bye in the first round. It’s also worth noting this is the first time the Dodgers have endured a streak of losing eight of nine games since their infamous September collapse in 2017 when they dropped 11 in a row (yet still won 104 games in the regular season and came within one game of winning the World Series).

So what gives? How is the most loaded roster in baseball history struggling? There are issues on both sides of the diamond and almost everything has gone wrong at once.

The pitching staff has fallen apart

During the team’s current nine-game stretch, Dodgers pitchers rank dead last in baseball with an fWAR of -0.5. The Mariners are next worst at -0.2. L.A. pitchers also rank last in FIP (5.85), xFIP (4.91), home runs allowed per nine innings (2.09), and are second-worst in ERA (5.47).

That is a stunning reversal.

Before July 30, when this skid started, Dodgers pitchers ranked second in fWAR (15.8), fourth in ERA (3.58), ninth in FIP (3.87), sixth in xFIP (3.83), and were allowing 1.15 homers per nine.

In the span of nine games, one of baseball’s best pitching staffs has become one of its worst.

Part of the change has been bad luck. Opposing hitters’ batting average on balls in play has jumped from a league-best .259 to .277 during the streak. But that doesn’t explain it all. L.A.’s pitchers have seen their collective strikeout rate drop from 24.7% to 20.7%, and their walk rate has increased from 8.3% to 10.2%. More balls are being put in play and more runners are on base.

Fewer strikeouts, more walks and nearly twice as many home runs is not a good combination. It doesn’t take a math wiz to figure out why the team’s ERA has jumped.

No one has been more emblematic of those struggles than closer Edwin Diaz. The 32-year-old reliever has entered three games during his team’s slide and has been horrendous. He has pitched two innings over three appearances, allowing four runs on five hits, with three walks, three strikeouts and two home runs allowed. His ERA over those three games is 18.00, and he’s allowed two home runs while blowing two saves. By himself, he has cost the Dodgers -0.4 fWAR. Oddly enough, he was credited with the Dodgers’ only win since July 31. He “earned” it after blowing a save in a perfect example of classic baseball irony.

In 66 1/3 innings for the Mets in 2025, Diaz only allowed three home runs and blew three saves. He’s nearly matched that in two innings during this skid.

Los Angeles Dodgers pitcher Edwin Diaz
Edwin Diaz has blown two saves in his last three games. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Diaz hasn’t been the only Dodger toiling. Justin Wrobleski has made two starts since July 31 and is 0–2 with an 11.74 ERA, 12.90 FIP, and 2.48 WHIP in 7 2/3 innings. Before that, he was 11–2 with a 2.88 ERA, a 3.59 FIP and a 1.02 WHIP in 112 2/3 innings. He was third among Dodgers pitchers in fWAR (2.4) during that time.

This is a staff-wide issue, not just a few guys getting knocked around. Even the newly arrived Skubal wasn’t his sharpest in his first appearance for the Dodgers and wound up taking a loss against the Cubs.

The Dodgers built what looks like an unfair pitching staff on paper. But opposing hitters have made it look remarkably ordinary lately.

The superteam’s offense has gone silent

It’s not just the pitching staff that has tanked over the past two weeks. L.A.’s vaunted offense has also taken a big hit.

In the season’s first 109 games, the Dodgers’ offense ranked first in wRC+ (113) and on-base percentage (.341), second in fWAR (20.7) and slugging (.433), fourth in runs (562) and fifth in home runs (141). They averaged 5.16 runs per game.

In the past nine games, that same lineup looks nearly unrecognizable.

Los Angeles Dodgers shortstop Mookie Betts
Mookie Betts has a wRC+ of 84 this season in 81 games, the first time he’s ever graded out as below average at the plate. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Since July 31, L.A. is 25th in fWAR (0.4), 24th in wRC+ (84), 22nd in on-base percentage (.300) and has only scored 29 runs. That’s 3.2 per game. Again, there is some bad luck involved, as their BABIP has dropped from .303 to .283. That said, the team’s walk rate has plummeted from one of the best marks in baseball (10.1%) to one of the worst (6.4%). Despite that shift, the team’s strikeout rate has actually dropped from 20.6% to 19.0%.

They’re putting the ball in play more, but not doing any damage when they do.

During the losing streak, several of L.A.’s stars have badly labored and sport wRC+ numbers below the league average of 100. The list includes Freddie Freeman (93), Teoscar Hernández (72), Max Muncy (51), Mookie Betts (24) and Tommy Edman (0). Kyle Tucker (195), Shohei Ohtani (154) and Andy Pages (123) have held up their end of the bargain, but the rest of the lineup has been a mess.

At the beginning of the season, the Dodgers looked to have a lineup with no easy outs. All of a sudden there are plenty to be found.

There are some truly remarkable stats when you dig deeper. Muncy is striking out in nearly half his at-bats (46.2%). Betts, a former MVP with a career slugging percentage of .506, is slugging .194. Hernández hasn’t drawn a single walk. Everywhere you look, guys are finding new ways to contribute to losses.

Looking even further back, the Dodgers have been below average offensively since the All-Star break. Their team wRC+ in the second half is 95, and they rank 23rd in runs scored (85). This is starting to look less like a bad nine-game stretch and more like a trend.

The good news for L.A. is that the team is far too talented for this to last. Diaz’s ERA isn’t going to stay at 18.00, Betts will start slugging and Muncy will stop swinging at everything in sight. The sheer number of stars on the roster will eventually begin to overwhelm the competition again.

At least we all think it will.

August isn’t a time for panic, especially for a franchise like the Dodgers. These are the dog days of summer, after all. But for the first time all season, the Dodgers don’t look inevitable. They just look bad.


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