I set about selecting my American Express betting tips feeling a little conflicted, as on one hand I was pleased to start the year with a great value runner-up tip in Hawaii, but on the other it could have been so much better.
After also picking the runner-up at the Dubai Invitational on the DP World Tour, we were close to starting the season with a winning double at huge prices.
It didn't happen, however, so I'll stop dwelling and swiftly move on to an exciting full field at the American Express.
This week we get a chance to go one better, so I've once again teamed up with the betting experts at Golf Monthly HQ to offer a series of great value tips that we believe can win the American Express 2026...
Sony Open Betting Tips 2026: Bazza's Best Bets
Pick One: Sam Burns (+2500) To Win @ BetMGM
Sam Burns has strong form in this event, with two top-10 finishes and four top-25 finishes in six starts. He also rounded out 2025 positively, finishing 4th at the BMW Championship and 7th at the Tour Championship.
Sam Burns is widely considered as one of the best putters on the PGA Tour, an important measure for success here, ranking third for Strokes Gained: Putting in the last 12 months.
He also putts well on this type of surface, so if the flat stick gets hot there could be trouble for the field.
Pick Two: Si Woo Kim (+3500) To Win @ BetMGM
After repeatedly quashing LIV Golf rumours, Si Woo Kim started 2026 with a very impressive performance in Hawaii, finishing in T11 at the Sony Open.
Similarly to Burns, Kim also finished 2025 well with four consecutive top-20 finishes including when 4th at the RSM Classic.
Si Woo Kim has form on correlating courses, with strong performances at the WM Phoenix Open, RBC Heritage and The Players Championship.
If his putting is at least to the field average standard, we could see another strong effort from the four-time PGA Tour winner.
Value Bet: Rasmus Hojgaard (+5000) To Win @ BetMGM
Rasmus Hojgaard has been playing some great golf of late, finishing 7th at the DP World Tour Championship last time out, 3rd at the Sanderson Farms Championship on the PGA Tour and twice finishing runner-up on the DP World Tour in his last eight starts worldwide.
He also has the ability to get really streaky with the putter, which can help him to compete in this type of birdie-fest event. To top it all off, he finished 12th at the WM Phoenix Open in 2025 so he ticks plenty of boxes at a great price.
Top-5 Finish Bet: Jordan Spieth
Jordan Spieth shook off the rust in Hawaii last week in impressive fashion, finishing in T24 at the Sony Open thanks to four consecutive sub-70 rounds.
Spieth has won (and come second) at the RBC Heritage, posted six top-10 finishes at the WM Phoenix Open and twice emerged victorious from the John Deere Classic - so his correlating form is super strong.
If he can build on his fitness and his performance from last week, he has a great chance here.
Pick One: Robert MacIntyre (+2500) To Win @ BetMGM
The Scot has moved up to 6th in the world after his T4 finish last week at the Sony, where he admitted he needed to work on his attitude after snapping his putter in the second round.
He sounded very happy with his game after finishing four back of Chris Gotterup and I’m confident he can be up on the first page of the leaderboard again this week.
MacIntyre is a great putter and has the ability to go low, which is what will be required in California.
He has played here once before, missing the cut two years ago, so his experience of the courses could be key, too. With the form he arrives in and the fact he was slightly disappointed to finish inside the top-five last time out, I can see him righting the wrongs of last week and picking up his third PGA Tour title.
Pick Two: Patrick Rodgers To Finish Top-10
Patrick Rodgers is one of the best PGA Tour players yet to win and, while picking up his maiden title will be tough in such a strong field, I do like his chances for a top-10.
The big-hitting former Stanford man began 2026 very strong with a solo-3rd finish at the Sony Open, where he was top 10 in driving and 14th in putting.
He was 132nd in Approach last season but 21st last week so it looks like he has improved his iron play in the off-season, which should lead to plenty of birdie chances at the low-scoring AmEx.
He is an experienced head with four runners-up finishes on Tour as well as five third-places so should be able to capitalize while he’s playing this well.
Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (Available in the US), 877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY), 1-800-327-5050 (MA), 1-800-NEXT-STEP (AZ), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA), 1-800-981-0023 (PR). 21+ only.
Please Gamble Responsibly. See BetMGM.com for Terms. First Bet Offer for new customers only (if applicable).
Subject to eligibility requirements. Bonus bets are non-withdrawable. In partnership with Kansas Crossing Casino and Hotel. This promotional offer is not available in DC, Mississippi, New York, Nevada, Ontario, or Puerto Rico.
Pick One: Sam Burns (+2500) To Win @ BetMGM
I'm picking Sam Burns, but I realize it's something of a risk given it's his first start of the year, so there's concern for me about potential rust early on.
Having said that, he has two top-10s and couple more top-20s in his six starts here previously, so it's not the worst place to be kicking off the campaign.
If his putting at the Hero World Challenge proves to be a blip, Burns is exactly the sort of character who is likely to be in contention. He hits it a long way and is an amazing putter/scorer. Hopefully he can come out firing and just edge Scheffler.
Pick Two: Rasmus Hojgaard (+5000) @ BetMGM
Hojgaard is another player who fits the mould of an American Express winner, with incredible length off the tee and strong putting stats - especially towards the end of last season when back in Europe.
If he can ride the wave of confidence he picked up towards the end of 2025, Hojgaard might stand a chance of putting himself in contention this week.
Let's not forget, either, the guy is a Ryder Cup winner, so he certainly has the talent to capitalize if he can make a strong start.
Pick One: Patrick Cantlay (+2500) To Win @ BetMGM
Although Cantlay hasn't played since the Procore Championship in November, he enjoyed fine results at the Tour Championship and FedEx St. Jude Championship, showing me that his form was there prior to his time off.
Finishing T5th at this tournament last year, Cantlay claimed a solo ninth at The American Express in 2022 and a runner-up result in 2021, demonstrating course form.
Given he lives in the area, has had time off to recover, and possesses an excellent all-round game, I think he will be Scheffler's nearest challenger this week.
Pick Two: Max Greyserman (+10000) @ BetMGM
I will admit that this is a do-or-die pick, but Greyserman did showcase some nice form at the end of 2025, finishing runner-up at the Baycurrent Classic, firing some low rounds in the process.
Last year, he claimed a T7th at The American Express and, while his form last season wasn't the best, his performance in La Quinta was one of his strongest, which should be a confidence booster.
He's making his first start of 2026, so will be looking for improvements at an event that's suited him previously.
Golf Monthly Betting Picks: Wins In 2025
Player |
Event |
Price |
GM Staff Member |
Richard Mansell |
Porsche Singapore Classic |
+6000 |
Matt Cradock |
Sami Valimaki |
RSM Classic |
+5500 |
Jonny Leighfield |
Eugenio Chacarra |
Hero Indian Open |
+3500 |
Elliott Heath |
Sergio Garcia |
LIV Golf Hong Kong |
+2200 |
Jonny Leighfield |
Ludvig Aberg |
Genesis Invitational |
+2200 |
Matt Cradock |
Laurie Canter |
Bapco Energies Bahrain Championship |
+2200 |
Jonny Leighfield/Matt Cradock |
Matt Fitzpatrick |
DP World Tour Championship |
+1600 |
Matt Cradock |
David Puig |
BMW Australian PGA Championship |
+1400 |
Jonny Leighfield |
Tommy Fleetwood |
Tour Championship |
+1200 |
Jonny Leighfield |
Ben Griffin |
World Wide Technology Championship |
+1200 |
Baz Plummer/Jonny Leighfield |
Joaquin Niemann |
LIV Golf UK |
+900 |
Matt Cradock |
Tyrrell Hatton |
Hero Dubai Desert Classic |
+900 |
Jonny Leighfield |
Joaquin Niemann |
LIV Golf Virginia |
+750 |
Jonny Leighfield |
Rory McIlroy |
The Masters |
+650 |
Baz Plummer |
Tommy Fleetwood |
DP World India Championship |
+650 |
Baz Plummer/Jonny Leighfield |
Scottie Scheffler |
PGA Championship |
+400 |
Matt Cradock/Elliott Heath |
Rory McIlroy |
Amgen Irish Open |
+400 |
Jonny Leighfield |
