BANGKOK _ For the past five years, Prayuth Chan-Ocha ruled with absolute power as the head of Thailand's military junta. Now he'll lead a coalition with a razor-thin majority against a vengeful opposition tired of being silenced.
Thai lawmakers on Wednesday picked Prayuth to return as prime minister following a disputed election in March, ensuring the military retains influence in a new administration. With the support of a junta-appointed Senate, Prayuth easily beat out pro-democracy candidate Thanathorn Juangroongruangkit.
Prayuth's return marks a victory for royalist elites in Bangkok, who have used the courts or military to overturn election results for more than a decade to prevent exiled former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra from running the government. Thaksin's allies won the most seats in the March election, but were unable to convince enough smaller parties to join them in a coalition.
The military views Thaksin as a threat to Thailand's royalist establishment, which has long maintained greater influence over the levers of power than elected politicians. About a week after the March election, King Maha Vajiralongkorn revoked Thaksin's royal decorations because the former prime minister fled Thailand in 2008 after being sentenced to prison, a conviction Thaksin says was politically motivated.
While centralized control paved the way for Thailand's emergence as a prime manufacturing base in the 1980s, frequent coups and political violence over the past decade have eroded the country's competitiveness. Potential gridlock from a starkly divided lower house could hinder growth in Southeast Asia's second-largest economy, which expanded at the weakest pace in the first quarter since 2014 as exports, tourism and public investment moderated.
"There'll be a lot of bickering and bargaining in the parliament," said Kevin Hewison, an expert on Thai politics and an emeritus professor at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. "Prayuth tends to get cranky and that could impact the government."
The hot-headed former army chief is known for lashing out at opponents, and a return to some form of parliamentary democracy will test his patience. Prayuth's Palang Pracharath, carved out of the junta that seized power in 2014, will lead a 19-party coalition that has a majority of only a handful of seats in the 500-member Lower House.
"History suggests that a government of many parties may not last its full term," said Prajak Kongkirati, head of the government and politics department at Thammasat University in Bangkok. The government's thinking will be focused on political survival, rather than long-term vision, he said.
Thanathorn, who finished second to Prayuth, has warned of potential street protests if the military escalates its campaign to suppress the opposition. While Thanathorn has linked up with Thaksin's allies in parliament, his Future Forward party is more overtly pro-democracy and anti-junta.
Authorities have targeted Thanathorn since the election, filing sedition charges against him for allegedly providing assistance to an anti-military protest leader. His party also could face disbandment. The junta says none of the cases are political.
"We're like frogs in the boiling pot of water," Thanathorn, who has been suspended by parliament until his legal case is cleared, told reporters before the vote. "By the time we realize it's hot, it's already too late. The world is changing and we can't stay the same."
