Tesla vehicle insurance registrations in China dropped around 11% sequentially last week and with the second quarter nearly finished, global vehicle deliveries could only see a slight increase compared to the first quarter. However, it may not matter for TSLA investors as the stock took off Monday following the robotaxi service launch in Austin, Texas.
Tesla insurance registrations in China totaled around 13,800 for the week ended June 22, down about 11% from the 15,500 the previous week, according to data compiled by independent China auto industry trackers on Tuesday.
Through 12 weeks into Q2, Tesla registrations in China are roughly 5% below the seasonally weak Q1 and down 17% vs. a year earlier. Since the beginning of 2025, Tesla vehicle registrations in China are down nearly 8%. China's registrations data act provide a rough gauge for deliveries.
Tesla stock fell 2.4% to 340.47 during Tuesday's stock market. The stock gained 8.2% on Monday, moving above its 21-day exponential moving average and is now well above the 200-day moving average.
Deliveries Report Comes Next Week
Tesla is expected to report global second-quarter vehicle delivery and production data on July 2. The current consensus has Tesla vehicle deliveries of 393,000, which is 11% below a year ago but about 17% above the Q1 total, according to FactSet. However, since the beginning of June analyst delivery forecasts have ranged from 377,000-342,000.
At the end of last year, when Tesla was predicting 20%-30% EV delivery growth in 2025, the Q2 consensus was 502,000.
U.S. sales of Tesla vehicles in the U.S. fell 16% in April, according to recently released data from S&P Global Mobility. Meanwhile, through the first five months of 2025, Tesla vehicle sales in China's domestic market have fallen nearly 8% compared with the same period in 2024, according to the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA).
For the full year, analysts expect Tesla to deliver 1.69 million vehicles, down 5.6% compared to 2024.
Troy Teslike, whose Tesla delivery tracking is highly regarded among retail Tesla stock investors, posted to X on Sunday that he does not believe Tesla will hit 1.60 million deliveries in 2025 and that the analyst consensus will come down in the "next 8 days."
An underwhelming deliveries release next week may not move Tesla stock meaningfully after it soared Monday on robotaxi optimism. TSLA jumped more than 10% to as high as 357.54 intraday, before retreating slightly, advancing 8.2% to 348.86 on Monday.
How Tesla Stock Is Responding To The Robotaxi Launch
Tesla Stock And Robotaxi Impact
At Tuesday's close, Tesla stock is now down 1.7% in June. TSLA ended last week down about 1%, after a 10% in the previous week reclaimed the stock's 200-day moving average and 50-day line.
Overall, Tesla stock has moved 43% higher on robotaxi bets following the April 22 Q1 conference call. Shares are down about 16% for the year, and have retreated 30% from their all-time high of 488.54.
Tesla stock has a 21-day average true range of 5.36%. The ATR metric, available on IBD's MarketSurge charting tool, gauges the characteristic breadth of a stock's behavior. Stocks that tend to make large jumps or dives in daily stock market action, the kind that can trigger sell rules and shake investors out of a stock, have a high ATR. Stocks that tend to make more incremental moves have lower ATRs.
Investors can keep tabs on the IBD Leaderboard watchlist, the IBD 50 list of top growth stocks and IBD SwingTrader along with the IBD Sector Leaders list.
Tesla stock has a 70 Composite Rating out of a best-possible 99. The stock also has a 91 Relative Strength Rating and a 59 EPS Rating.
Please follow Kit Norton on X @KitNorton for more coverage.
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