Tesla announces global third-quarter deliveries next week and the EV giant just posted its strongest weekly China vehicle registrations of the quarter, signaling a big improvement compared to Q2 but still lagging behind last year. TSLA shares are just 14% below record highs as of Tuesday's stock market close.
Tesla insurance registrations in China totaled 17,300 for the week of Sept. 15 to 21, up nearly 13% from 15,350 the previous week, marking its highest weekly total so far in Q3, according to data compiled Tuesday by independent China auto industry trackers.
Along with Tesla's China insurance registrations jump last week, other major Chinese electric vehicle manufacturers also broadly saw increases. Registrations tend to ramp up at the end of the quarter.
Of Tesla's total vehicle registrations, there were 10,340 Model Ys, 850 of the newly released six-seat Model Y L and 6,060 Model 3 vehicle registrations, according to CnEVPost.
During the prior week, 1,030 new Model Y L vehicles were registered while 894 were registered three weeks ago. The new, slightly longer wheelbase Model Y variation appears to be having an incremental boost to sales since deliveries Sept. 2.
Twelve weeks into Q3, Tesla registrations in China, a rough gauge for deliveries, are now up 33% compared to Q2 but down around 8% to Q3 2024. So far this year, Tesla vehicle registrations in China have declined 6%.
Tesla Q3 Deliveries Upcoming
Investors will get another China vehicle registrations report next week before Tesla reports third-quarter global vehicle deliveries. The EV giant will then announce Q3 earnings on Oct. 21.
Officially, analyst consensus has global Tesla Q3 vehicle deliveries coming in around 446,000, according to FactSet. That would be about 16% above the second-quarter total but still down 4% vs. Q3 2024. Few analysts have updated Q3 delivery targets since late July, however.
Piper Sandler on Sunday projected 495,000 Q3 deliveries while GLJ Research forecasts 467,000. Meanwhile, Kalshi prediction market has been pegging deliveries at 510,000 units.
UBS analysts on Tuesday predicted that Tesla Q3 deliveries will come in at 475,000, up from its prior view of 431,000. For Q4, UBS forecasts 428,000 deliveries, down 14% vs. a year ago and down 10% quarter over quarter. UBS has a sell rating and a 215 price target on TSLA shares.
Mizuho also on Tuesday raised its Tesla stock price target to 450 from 375, noting that U.S. tariffs should have a minimal impact on new vehicle prices and that consumers appear to be buying EVs before the tax credit ends.
After the U.S. tax credit expires on Sept. 30, deliveries are likely to fall significantly in the U.S.
The EV giant updated its website over the weekend showing that customers can still take advantage of the tax credit if they order a vehicle by Sept. 30, not if it is delivered by that date. The IRS revised guidance about expiring EV tax credits in late August.
Tesla Stock Performance
TSLA fell about 2% to 425.85 during Tuesday's stock market after gaining 1.9% to 434.21 on Monday. Tesla stock jumped 7.6% last week to 426.07, following Musk's disclosure of $1 billion worth of share buys.
In the prior week, Tesla stock surged 12.85%, racing out of a consolidation buy point of 367.71, according to MarketSurge charts. At Tuesday's market close, Tesla was 14.7% below December's all-time high of 488.54.
Baird analyst Ben Kallo on Friday upgraded Tesla to outperform from neutral with a price target of 548, up from 320. Kallo wrote that Tesla's vehicle volumes will likely decline again in 2025 and near-term fundamentals "will be choppy," but that TSLA could outperform as Tesla is increasingly viewed as the leader in physical artificial intelligence.
At this point, investors looking to start a position should see if Tesla pulls back or perhaps forges a handle to a consolidation going back to end of last year.
Investors can keep tabs on the IBD Leaderboard watchlist, the IBD 50 list of top growth stocks and IBD SwingTrader along with the IBD Sector Leaders list.
Tesla stock has a 79 Composite Rating out of a best-possible 99. The stock also has an 87 Relative Strength Rating and a 53 EPS Rating.
Please follow Kit Norton on X @KitNorton for more coverage.
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