A residential block of flats could collapse if the new Chinese super embassy in London was attacked with a van packed with explosives, The Standard can reveal.
People near the proposed diplomatic complex in Tower Hamlets could also be injured within nearly 180 metres if there was a terror strike on that scale.
The details are contained in a “sensitive” document drawn up by engineering and design experts Arup for Tower Hamlets council amid the controversy over the mega-embassy set to be opened by Beijing at Royal Mint Court, near the Tower of London.
The 51-page analysis outlines the potential impact of three scenarios; a bomb carried by a person (Person Borne Improvised Explosive Device - PBIED), a car bomb (Vehicle Borne Improvised Explosive Device - VBIED), or a larger van bomb (Large Vehicle Borne Improvised Explosive Device - LVBIED) .
It identified seven nearby buildings which could be affected including residential blocks St Mary Graces Court in Cartwright Street, Sceptre Court, 40 Tower Hill, and Swan Court, Star Place.
The others are at least partially residential Royal Mint Garden, 85 Royal Mint Street, and Tower Bridge House in St Katharine’s Way, offices in Commodity Quay, as well as SG House, 41 Tower Hill and Minories car park.
Assessing the risks, the document states: “It can be observed that the St Mary Graces Court (building G), due to its close proximity to the rear of the embassy, would be the worst affected by VBIED or LVBIED attack at the rear of the embassy.
“The worst scenario could be possible building collapse or severe damage to building frame under LVBIED attack.”
The report also says that if there was a person-borne bomb attack at the rear entrance of the embassy, people within nine metres of the explosion “are likely to be dead or suffer severe injuries as a direct result” of the blast wave.
People as far as 55 metres away may be injured due to broken glass or falling debris.
A car bomb at the front of the embassy could kill or severely injure people due directly to the blast within 17 metres of the explosion.
People as far as 103 metres away might be injured due to broken glass or falling debris.
if it was a bigger attack, using a van ladden with explosives, people within 29 metres of the explosion are likely to suffer death or severe injuries as a direct result of the blast wave.
People as far as 176 metres away from the attack location could be injured due to broken glass or falling debris.
Mark Nygate, treasurer for the Royal Mint Court Residents’ Association (RMCRA), told The Standard: “The blast assessment highlights why the residents are so concerned about their safety and security and why any mitigating measures agreed between the council and the Embassy only protect Embassy staff and not the locals.”
The report lists measures which could be taken to counter the terror risk including street parking controls, designing planters or garden features so bombs cannot be hidden inside them, regularly emptying bins and asking staff and local residents to be vigilant to potential threats.
The RMCRA is challenging in the High Court the plans for the new embassy which it says would breach local people’s human rights.
The association argues that planning conditions imposed as part of approving the development are worthless as China does not have to abide by then due to the Vienna Convention protection of diplomatic premises.
It also says there was a failure to make public two documents, one on security and the second on the terror blast assessment, so local people could not comment on them as part of the planning process.
Ricardo Gama, partner at law firm Leigh Day respresenting the RMCRA, said: “The residents’ association’s case is that the blast assessment and security statement contained important information about the security risks to their homes, for example from blast threats to the proposed embassy.
“They say that the documents should have been provided to them so that they could understand the risks and provide their views on ways that they could be mitigated.”
Local residents recently raised concerns after razor wire was put up at the site after a security incident.
The proposed embassy development has faced fierce opposition, partly due to concerns that China will turn it into a huge spying centre which could be used to target the City, Parliament, Whitehall and other countries in Europe.
Ministers insists that they followed planning rules in giving the go-ahead for the new embassy which at 20,000-square metres would be the biggest in Europe.
Beijing had threatened “consequences” if the UK government rejected the proposed development.
China purchased the Royal Mint Court site for £255 million in 2018, and it included the homes of around 200 local residents.
