The Tourism Authority of Thailand's (TAT) China office has told operators not to expect many Chinese tourists soon, due to rising unemployment and new infections.
The surging unemployment rate of 6% or 27 million on the mainland remains a challenge as Thailand eagerly awaits its No.1 source market.
Lerdchai Wangtrakoondee, director of TAT's Shanghai office, said the situation in China is returning to normal, although outbound tour operators are still on hold.
He said Thailand will face tough competition from rivals to lure Chinese tourists back, led by the Maldives, which plans to lift travel restrictions to all nationalities in July.
Singapore already opened its border to Chinese business travellers early this month.
The TAT's best case is tourists will return to Thailand during Golden Week or the national holiday in October.
In the worst case, Thailand has to wait until Chinese New Year in 2021, which will fall in February.
During the first five months this year, Thailand welcomed 1.2 million tourists from the mainland, a sharp fall of 74.1% year-on-year, with tourism receipts decreasing by 75.8% to 57.2 billion baht, according to the Tourism and Sport Ministry.
As the mainland has reported new infection cases during the past week in Beijing, TAT's Beijing office said the rising numbers may slow down the market recovery beyond the Golden Week period.
The agency has to monitor the market closely to see whether the situation escalates in the next few weeks.
