Perhaps Guus Hiddink will end up taking on the Chelsea job long-term, but for now, for all his bullish talk of trophies, his task is simply to stop the bleeding. There had been rumblings for a while, but the suddenness of Luiz Felipe Scolari's demise was shocking, as though Saturday's draw against Hull led to the realisation that if things carried on as they were, Chelsea were not merely slipping out of the title race but were also in danger of failing to qualify for the Champions League.
Hiddink must first secure Chelsea's place in the top four; anything beyond that is a bonus. To an extent, of course, he is restricted, as the imbalances in the squad cannot be addressed until the summer, which leaves three things he can tackle: fitness, morale and organisation.
Fitness is a clear problem. Chelsea looked exhausted in the closing stages of the 3-0 defeat against Manchester United, and, while the sending-off of Frank Lampard clearly made a difference, it is no coincidence that they also succumbed late against Liverpool at Anfield.
Opta stats show that only 14% of Chelsea's goals have been scored in the last 15 minutes of games: no other Premier League side has scored a lower proportion of their goals late in games this season. Not all goals, of course, are equal, and to an extent it doesn't matter all that much if teams are just adding third and fourth goals to what may already be convincing wins, but Chelsea have won only four points with goals scored in the final 15 minutes – better than only five other sides.
Hiddink's sides have a reputation for formidable fitness. A pre-World Cup training camp in 2002 made his South Korea side so fit that he even had to deny dark – and groundless – allegations of doping. Of the five players who ran furthest in Euro 2008, three were members of his Russia squad.
There have been regular leaks from Chelsea over the last few months about a supposed lack of intensity in training, something most link to the departure of Steve Clarke, whose move to work with Gianfranco Zola at West Ham has led to a corresponding improvement in their results. Hiddink perhaps can change that, but there is a big difference between preparing a side for a one-off four- or five-week tournament and for the grind of a club season.
As Dr Claudio Bertolini, a former head of Lazio's medical department, describes it, pre-season is about getting players to a level of fitness, the rest of the season is about trying to maintain it. Jose Mourinho recently blamed Internazionale's sluggish start to the second half of the Italian season on their demanding winter training schedule, designed to give them sufficient stamina to see them through the tough months of April and May, as Serie A and the Champions League reach their climaxes.
There is no magic formula. When asked about Australia's stamina during the 2006 World Cup, Tim Cahill said "we just work bloody hard" – there is clearly rather more to it than that, and extra fitness work in mid-season does run the risk of exhausting players for games.
Besides which, the age profile of the Chelsea squad militates against them. They have a mean age of 28.2, as opposed to a mean of 25.8 for the other three members of the Big Four. By way of comparison, 14 of Hiddink's Russia squad at the Euros were aged between 24 and 26. Even if Hiddink could start again with this squad, the chances are that younger opponents would outrun them.
Organisation – particularly in terms of defending dead-balls – has become a major problem (again, seemingly coinciding with Clarke's departure). That is such an obvious flaw – consider the recent goals conceded against Ipswich, Southend, Manchester United – that it is inconceivable any new coach would not immediately address it.
Quite why Scolari couldn't remains a mystery, and strengthens the suggestion that the players really weren't paying him any heed. Hiddink, with his reputation as a disciplinarian, will surely at least have the players' attention (although you would have said the same about Scolari as well), but one niggle remains.
Scolari is widely perceived to have failed to adjust to the English game; why should Hiddink be any different just because he has experience coaching European clubs? Scolari sides put England out of three successive tournaments (admittedly, twice with the aid of penalties); Hiddink has no such record of success.
Before Russia's 2-1 victory over England in Moscow in October 2007 (and how different that might have been had Steven Gerrard buried that volley to make it 2-0 just after half-time), Hiddink had come up against English opposition 10 times and failed to win, his teams scoring five goals while conceding 18. It is far from certain that he will be able to make the adjustment, or at least make it quickly enough.
Hiddink's most immediate impact is likely to be on morale. Whether he can reconcile the cliques in the squad remains to be seen, but at least by talking to Scolari about them he is acknowledging there is a problem. Hiddink has a history of motivating players who are known to be difficult, and that must be a positive sign. "He's a great man-manager and that's always been a strength," said the notoriously opinionated Clarence Seedorf, who was part both of Holland's divided Euro 96 side and of the team that reached the semi-finals of the World Cup two years later. "He's very good at dealing with moments of pressure and motivating sides."
Andrei Arshavin, similarly, fears a grave future for Russia should Hiddink desert them. "For me, the most important thing is that Hiddink doesn't leave the Russian team," he told Sport Express. "If Guus was to quit, our side could just collapse."
Most important, perhaps, is to get Didier Drogba playing again, although it is unclear whether his recent poor form is down to attitude or continuing problems with his knee. Without him, though, Chelsea are one-dimensional, reliant on Nicolas Anelka who, for all his potency in one-on-ones against the goalkeeper, is far less effective when teams sit deep against him.
The very act of making a change may be enough to re-energise Chelsea – blood-sacrifice sometimes brings short-term gain – but the truth is that many of the problems afflicting the club are endemic. All Hiddink can do is to patch over the leaks, coax the club to the safe harbour of the top four and recommend a major refit in the summer.
