Tuesday’s best bets, by Chris Cook
There appears to be no question of Aidan O’Brien sending a reduced team over for York’s Ebor meeting, just because the yard has been a bit out of sorts. His six runners there for tomorrow’s opening card will include four of the nine runners in the Great Voltigeur; he’s saddling stars like Kew Gardens and Saxon Warrior who will make a real difference to the excitement level among punters and spectators.
The question is, what can we expect from those horses? It’s almost a month since O’Brien acknowledged there was a bug in the yard, following a disappointing display by Magic Wand in the Irish Oaks. A good number of his horses appear to run their race but some are also running well below form and I think the overall picture is worrying for anyone who’s interested in backing one of his this week.
His record in the past fortnight is four winners from 41 runners, a 10% strike-rate that does not compare well with his standard strike-rate in Irish racing of 21%. Of his nine shortest-priced runners in that time, only one has won, the 30-100 shot Zagitova in a Cork maiden. He’s had two horses beaten at 4-9, albeit they ran second and may have been over-rated by punters.
Two-thirds of the way through August, he’s had six winners in Ireland this month, compared to the 23 with which he has ended August in each of the last two seasons. And, for what it’s worth, he’s only 2/36 in Britain since the start of last month.
The surest thing in the history of horse racing is that O’Brien’s yard will be mopping up again at some point. But when? There’s not much reason to hope that things will turn around within the next four days, in my view. And yet I do like Kew Gardens. Hmmm.
Those with no interest in trainer form will not be with me in finding 16-1 tempting about Roca Magica (2.00) in Kempton’s opener. She comes from the Ed Dunlop yard that has been pottering along on a single-figure strike-rate since March but has suddenly picked up this month and is on 18% for the last fortnight.
She didn’t cope with three initial runs at the big tracks in June and was outpaced when dropped back to five furlongs for her nursery debut last month. But here she’s back up to six in an all-weather race full of unpromising sorts and the in-form David Probert aboard. I’ll take my chances.
Later on the Kempton card, Right Direction (4.30) is napped for her handicap debut. Saeed Bin Suroor’s filly took an age to reach the track but has been progressive in three starts this summer and is fairly priced at 3-1 after finishing strongly to score at Doncaster. She’s a Cape Cross half-sister to Cross Counter, the recent Gordon Stakes winner.
At Hamilton, Iain Jardine’s Falmouth Light (2.50) is interesting after winning tidily at Doncaster on his first start for the yard, stepped up in distance. He can go in again from 5lb higher after a useful break at odds of 7-2.
Hamilton 1.20 Happy Power 1.50 John Kirkup 2.20 Collide 2.50 Falmouth Light 3.20 Mable Lee 3.50 Pammi 4.20 Handsome Bob 4.55 Phebes Dream
Brighton 1.40 Union Rose 2.10 Loving Pearl 2.40 Zoffany Bay 3.10 Institution 3.40 Wotadoll 4.10 Dusty 4.40 Lazizah
Kempton 2.00 Roca Magica (nb) 2.30 Meringue 3.00 Enzemble 3.30 Appointment Only 4.00 Fortune And Glory 4.30 Right Direction (nap) 5.05 Kamra 5.35 True North
Yarmouth 4.50 Terri Rules 5.20 Dinastia 5.50 Encryption 6.20 Busy Street 6.50 Choco Box 7.20 Arnarson 7.50 Topmeup
Newton Abbot 5.00 Set List 5.30 As You Like 6.00 Passing Call 6.30 Mamoo 7.00 Alanjou 7.30 Ayelya
Tips by Chris Cook
