Total Recall (5.15) can prove the answer to a fantastically competitive Grand National at Aintree. Having looked like becoming a hot favourite when the weights were revealed two months ago, he remains a very reasonable price at 12‑1 and can give his trainer, Willie Mullins, a second success in the race he first won with Hedgehunter in 2005.
Some will be put off by the fact that he fell when last seen but I can forgive that tumble, at the third-last in a typically hot Cheltenham Gold Cup. Many a good horse has been caught out by that fence and although the National field usually goes a strong pace, it is unlikely to match the Gold Cup for intensity.
Timeform published some numbers this week showing that horses who fell last time out have a weak record in the National over the past decade. But those with longer memories will recall Rhyme N Reason falling in the 1988 Gold Cup and then landing the National the following month, while Red Marauder fell at the first fence in his prep run before winning at Aintree in 2001.
The owner JP McManus also has a big chance of a second National success, though possibly not with his most obvious contender, Anibale Fly, whose jumping is not to be trusted. His Carlingford Lough is a class horse on a fair weight and has usually shown his best form in the second half of a season. Regal Encore also has each-way possibilities at big odds.
Tiger Roll has to be on the short list after his cross-country success at Cheltenham, though he cannot be relied upon for a similarly doughty effort on back-to-back starts. Milansbar only just misses my top four and can keep Bryony Frost in contention for a long way. Conditions are possibly not quite attritional enough for Raz De Maree or Houblon Des Obeaux but both will appeal to each-way or place-only punters.
Best bets for Aintree’s other races
2.25 The hugely promising and unbeaten On The Blind Side missed Cheltenham because of a minor setback but will be all the fresher here and can sustain the stable’s fine run.
3.00 Petit Mouchoir had a hard race last month, so this is a fine chance for Shantou Rock.
3.40 Blinkers helped Paper Lantern to an impressive Easter win at Fairyhouse and he may be hard to catch if they do the trick again.
4.20 Having fared best of the British runners well when third in the Stayers’ Hurdle, Wholestone can take this less-demanding contest.
Aintree: 1.45 Ah Littleluck (nb), 2.25 On The Blind Side, 3.00 Shantou Rock, 3.40 Paper Lantern, 4.20 Wholestone, 5.15 Total Recall (nap), 6.20 High Expectations.
Newcastle: 1.30 Granard, 2.05 Ascot De Bruyere, 2.40 Gogo Baloo, 3.20 Plus Jamais, 3.55 Henry’s Joy, 4.30 Applaus, 5.00 Sky Full Of Stars, 5.45 Ange Des Malberaux.
Lingfield: 1.55 Pride Of Angels, 2.30 Betty F, 3.05 Mouille Point, 3.35 Silent Attack, 4.15 Dorian Gray, 4.50 Dream Warrior, 5.40 Officer Drivel.
Chepstow: 2.15 Pray For A Rainbow, 2.50 Gustav, 3.30 Shivermetimbers, 4.05 Kimberlite Candy, 4.40 Ardmayle, 5.35 Renard, 6.05 Good And Hardy.
Wolverhampton: 6.00 Berkshire Royal, 6.30 Avocet, 7.00 Carraigin Aonair, 7.30 Knockabout Queen, 8.00 Tivoli, 8.30 Mister Manduro, 9.00 Pea Shooter.
(all times BST)
