The Betfair Hurdle is a different race these days from the plotters’ paradise of the 70s and 80s, and with four of the last five renewals won by a lightly raced novice on the way up, the trend is too well-established to ignore.
Even ruling out second-season hurdlers leaves a long list of possibilities, however, including Irish Roe, who was only narrowly beaten in a Grade Two at Doncaster last time but gets weight from most of the field.
Lalor and Kalashikov also fit the bill, but no trainer has a better recent record in the race than Gary Moore, which tips the balance in favour of the progressive Knocknanuss (3.35), a seven-length winner last time out, at around 14-1.
Newbury 1.50 Barters Hill, a Grade One-winning novice two seasons ago, is back over hurdles for his first run since an injury in November 2016 and likely to need it. King Uther is quirky but improved last time and Richard Johnson takes over from the Warwick-bound Tom Cannon.
Warwick 2.05 Midnight Tour is the class act in the field, beaten 10 lengths in the Mares’ Hurdle at Cheltenham last March. She floundered over three miles on heavy going last time but drops back in trip here and Alan King’s string is in excellent form.
Newbury 2.25 Cloudy Dream is the only one of the three runners with recent form, but both Saphir Du Rheu and Native River are top-class at their best and unlikely to be too far short of full fitness with Cheltenham imminent. They are closely matched at the weights, but slight preference is for Colin Tizzard’s consistent runner, who won this event last year .
Warwick 2.40 Another small field and it is hard to see beyond Saint Calvados, who gets weight from his three rivals and has been an impressive winner on his two starts in Britain to date. He is already prominent in the Arkle Trophy betting and should advance his cause further here.
Newbury 3.00 All eyes will be on Altior as he returns to the track after a wind operation scarcely a month before the Champion Chase at Cheltenham. He faces a tough opponent too in Politologue, who has improved into a leading Festival candidate himself and will exploit any shortage of race-fitness in the favourite.
Warwick 3.15 The fitness of Thomas Crapper needs to be taken on trust, but he has gone well fresh in the past and has been dropped 4lb since his last start in April, when he unseated Charlie Poste four out at Cheltenham when still going well.
Lingfield 1.10 Natalie Express 1.45 Intense Pleasure 2.20 Gabrial The Devil 2.55 My Target 3.30 Bamako Du Chatelet 4.05 Count Otto 4.35 Born To Finish
Newbury 1.15 Whatswrongwithyou 1.50 King Uther 2.25 Native River 3.00 Politologue 3.35 Knocknanuss (nap) 4.10 Duke Des Champs 4.40 Good Boy Bobby
Uttoxeter 1.20 Samson’s Reach 1.55 Ballymoy 2.30 Grove Silver 3.05 Transient Bay 3.40 Diablo De Rouhet 4.15 Hope’s Wishes 4.45 Jaunty Thor
Warwick 1.30 Rio Quinto 2.05 Midnight Tour (nb) 2.40 Saint Calvados 3.15 Thomas Crapper 3.50 Just A Thought 4.20 Solighoster 4.50 Vado Forte
Wolverhampton 5.45 Port Soif 6.15 Dark Alliance 6.45 Bezos 7.15 Pilgrim Soul 7.45 Orvar 8.15 Reckless Wave 8.45 Ravenhoe
