The three horses at the front of the betting for today’s Welsh Grand National at Chepstow are also right at the top of the weights and that presents them with a serious task for what is usually one of the most attritional races of the year.
Shotgun Paddy, Monbeg Dude and Midnight Prayer are all admirable types and may have it in them to lump their burdens to glory but, with the course already soft and expected to take 10mm of rain during Boxing Day, that may not be the way to bet.
All three of them have been set to shoulder 11st 4lb or more. Since Master Oats won this race when it was transferred to Newbury 20 years ago, only one winner has carried more than 11st 3lb and that was Synchronised, who proved good enough to win a Cheltenham Gold Cup.
Halfway between Midnight Prayer and the bottom of the weights sits Benbens (2.35) whose profile suggests him as a plausible winner of this test. Twice a winner over fences as a novice last season, he has continued to improve this autumn, running well against quality rivals.
Some may remember him for his barging match with Dolatulo at Stratford in March. It may not have looked much of a race at the time but Dolatulo won the Rowland Meyrick at Wetherby on Friday.
Benbens was running a fair race in the Becher Chase last time before unseating some way out. Before that he seemed the likely winner of a race at Cheltenham’s November meeting before getting collared close home, with subsequent winners third and fourth.
It could be said his stamina ran out that day but his amateur rider hit the front a long way from home and one can be fairly sure Ryan Hatch will make more of an effort to conserve his energy here. This useful young rider is growing in confidence as opportunities come his way and Benbens could go well for him at odds of around 16-1. It would be a third success in this race for the trainer Nigel Twiston-Davies.
Others to consider include Benvolio, who ran well in a hot race for the Badger Ales at Wincanton and will be better suited by the going this time. Venetia Williams fields a tough pair of sloggers in Emperor’s Choice and Summery Justice and it would be no great surprise if either of them kept going while others fell away, though both are also capable of getting tailed off.
1.25 Chepstow
Twiston-Davies could get off to the right start with Brownville in this handicap hurdle, which he also won seven years ago with Ballyfitz. His runner this year was well backed to score on his handicap debut last time at Leicester, when a tongue tie, fitted once more, may have helped. He should still be very competitive with an extra 7lb.
1.40 Kempton
This looks a weak race for the grade and Balder Succes may be able to notch his first success of the season. He flew round here as a promising novice last season and, although he was a shade disappointing in the Tingle Creek last time, that was not his first flop at Sandown.
1.55 Chepstow
This has not been a great race for Paul Nicholls but he has a strong contender in Old Guard, a winner on the Flat for Roger Charlton this summer who made a promising hurdles debut when scoring at Newbury last month. The runner-up, Karezak, showed the worth of the form in a better race next time and is 6lb better off but Old Guard has more to give.
2.15 Kempton
The switch to Phil Middleton has done Tales Of Milan some good and he may follow up his all-the-way win in the London National.
2.50 Kempton
From an in-form yard that won this last year Keshi Pearl looks fairly treated for her handicap debut. She was third in a Listed race when last seen.
3.10 Chepstow
Beaten only once in four starts over fences, in April at the end of a long season, Headly’s Bridge copes well with deep going and may still have an edge over the handicapper.
