Migration from capital cities to Newcastle and Lake Macquarie grew more than 10 per cent over the past year after a sharp rise in the September quarter.
Figures from the Regional Australia Institute, based on Commonwealth Bank data, show 11 per cent more people moved from a state capital to Lake Macquarie year-on-year and 10 per cent more moved to Newcastle.
Lake Macquarie and Newcastle were ranked fifth and sixth on the list of Australian local government areas attracting the most new residents from capitals in the September quarter. Both attracted a two per cent share of all capital-city escapees.
The top four, Gold Coast (11 per cent), Sunshine Coast (5 per cent), Greater Geelong (4 per cent) and Wollongong (3 per cent), are also close to major cities.
Lake Macquarie (17 per cent) and Newcastle (22 per cent) had a much larger quarter-on-quarter rise than the other cities in the top six, but the Gold Coast (13 per cent) and Sunshine Coast (16 per cent) had larger year-on-year migration growth.
RAI chief economist Kim Houghton said Newcastle's "10 per cent increase in inflows from what would predominantly be Sydney is quite significant".
"People will certainly notice that," he said.
"For Newcastle, 10 per cent doesn't sound a lot over a year, but, if you think about it in terms of the actual numbers of movers and the impact of that on the community, that is quite significant."
Maitland had a 10 per cent rise in migration from capital cities in the September quarter and a 16 per cent year-on-year increase. Cessnock had a 27 per cent quarterly rise and 18 per cent on the year.
The Newcastle Herald reported on Friday that the price of housing blocks in Newcastle and Lake Macquarie had jumped 30 per cent in the June quarter.
Dr Houghton said many moderate- to high-growth areas had not planned for significant influxes of people.
"There will be a bit of a lag in terms of some of that housing infrastructure as well as some of that social infrastructure," he said.
He said the number of people moving from capital cities to regions had grown 2 per cent across Australia in the quarter, but net migration to regional areas had risen 14 per cent because fewer people were moving from regions to capital cities.
"That's contributing to some of the house price squeezes in regions because, of course, if people aren't leaving regions in the numbers that they usually do, that's not freeing up houses for sale and that's not freeing up properties for rent, either," he said.
The median price of a detached house in Newcastle has rocketed past $800,000 and overall dwelling prices, including units, have almost exceeded Melbourne's.
Dr Houghton expected migration patterns to continue as regional NSW had a lot of job vacancies in high-paying, skilled roles.
Lockdowns in NSW and Victoria during the September quarter likely had affected migration flows, but the next two quarters would show if there was evidence of a post-pandemic "regional renaissance" and "underlying shift" to regional areas.
In the news
- Newcastle Independents pledge to replace six Newcastle surf clubs
- Teens at risk of suicide need more help
- Newcastle and Hunter's unwanted COVID-19 crown retained
- Gladys Berejiklian gave $170m to hospital after Maguire complaint, ICAC told
- 'Incentives' but farmers won't be forced onto emission reduction scheme
- WA police defend search for missing Cleo
