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The Independent UK
The Independent UK
Politics
Chris Stevenson

Supreme Court pick LIVE: Trump decides justice nominee - but will not reveal choice yet

Contenders: Federal appeals court judges Raymond Kethledge (left), Brett Kavanaugh (centre) and Amy Coney Barrett ( Reuters )

Donald Trump has talked up what has has called one of "the most important" decisions of his presidency - a replacement for retiring Supreme Court Justice Anthony Kennedy, but he says with his final four options “you can't go wrong.” 

President Trump has been seeking to ramp up the interest in the pick, which will be announced on Monday evening. The new justice will solidify the court's conservative leanings, opening the door to new decisions on some landmark rulings, like gay rights and abortion provisions.

Mr Trump spoke to reporters Sunday afternoon before returning to Washington from a weekend at his private golf club in New Jersey, where he deliberated his decision amid furious lobbying and frenzied speculation. Relishing the suspense, Mr Trump insisted he still had not finalised his decision, which he wants to keep under wraps until the announcement from the White House. 

Live Updates

01:29
Democrats who were invited to tonight's announcement but declined included Senators. Joe Donnelly of Indiana, Heidi Heitkamp of North Dakota, Doug Jones of Alabama, Joe Manchin of West Virginia and Diane Feinstein of California.

Ms Feinstein is the ranking Democrat on the Judiciary Committee. The others are Republican targets for the confirmation vote who come from Trump-won states where they face re-election this fall. 

The nominee is expected to meet in coming days with senators at their offices, going door-to-door in get-to-know-you sessions ahead of confirmation hearings. 
01:28
Top contenders for the Supreme Court job have included federal appeals judges Brett Kavanaugh, Raymond Kethledge, Amy Coney Barrett and Thomas Hardiman. Momentum appeared to be with Mr Kavanaugh andMr  Hardiman, though the process has been fluid. 

Senator Orrin Hatch, a Republican from Utah, said late on Monday that he had spoken with Mr Trump and did not think Ms Barrett was the choice. Indeed, she was seen still at her home in Indiana.

Mr Hatch said: "I don't think she's going to be the one who's chosen this time. But I assume she will be next time." 
 
23:31
  
Here is some analysis of what might happen whoever Mr Trump chooses tonight
22:40
Senator John Cornyn has said Republicans know they're in for a contentious battle to confirm President Donald Trump's nominee to serve on the Supreme Court, but “won't back down from the fight.” 
Mr Cornyn, the second ranking Republican in the Senate, said it's “extremely disappointing” that some Democrats have made clear they'll oppose the nominee even before the president announces his choice. 
Mr Cornyn said Democrats have pledged to stop the nominee at all costs, but “we will see President Trump's nominee confirmed on a timely basis.” 
 
21:59

Leading Democrats, including frequent Trump target Elizabeth Warren, have called on the American people to help them fight any nomination. There are some strong words in the Twitter video below.

 
21:47
President Donald Trump is said to have made his choice for the new Supreme Court Justice, according to White House officials - but will wait until 9pm to make the announcement.
21:13
The top democrat in the Senate, Chuck Schumer has said a weekend move by the Trump administration to undercut the Affordable Care Act is another reason for senators to closely scrutinize the president's Supreme Court nominee. 

With little warning, the Republican administration announced it is freezing payments under an "Obamacare" program that protects insurers with sicker patients from financial losses. If the decision is made permanent, it would lead to higher premiums. 

Mr Schumer says the administration's action highlights the stakes for senators. 

He said: "Because President Trump has said repeatedly that he would nominate judges to overturn the ACA, the Supreme Court vacancy is only further putting health care front and center, raising the stakes for maintaining these vital health care protections." 

——— 
20:18
The White House guest list for the Monday night announcement includes Judiciary Committee chairman Chuck Grassley, a Republican from Iowa, and another committee member, John Kennedy, a Republican from Louisiana . 

Mr Kennedy said he was bracing for a tough confirmation battle as Democrats focus the nominee's views of the Supreme Court's Roe v. Wade ruling legalising abortion. 

"I suspect this is going to be a rough, tough, down in the dirt, ear-pulling, nose-biting fight," Mr Kennedy said. 
20:03
Here is a piece from the Associated Press on how the Supreme Court judge confirmation may play out once a nomination is made.

FINDING THE VOTES 
Republicans may have a narrower margin for error than they did when the Senate confirmed Trump's first Supreme Court nominee, Neil Gorsuch, by a vote of 54-45 in April 2017. 
Democratic Senator Doug Jones of Alabama has replaced Republican Sen. Luther Strange, cutting the GOP's Senate majority to 51-49. Meanwhile, Republican Sen. John McCain of Arizona is battling brain cancer and has not been back to the Capitol since December. 
That increases the focus on two Republicans — Senators Susan Collins of Maine and Lisa Murkowski of Alaska. Both support a woman's right to have an abortion and will be looking for assurances that the nominee would not overturn the Roe v Wade decision establishing abortion rights. Mr Trump pledged in 2016 that he would be “putting pro-life justices on the court.” 
On the Democratic side, the focus will be on Senators Heidi Heitkamp of North Dakota, Joe Donnelly of Indiana and Joe Manchin of West Virginia. All three voted to confirm Mr Gorsuch and are up for re-election in states that Mr Trump won handily. Whatever they decide will upset a large group of voters in their home states. 
If Ms Collins and Ms Murkowski vote “no” and Democrats all vote “no,” the nomination would be blocked. If Mr McCain were to miss the vote, only one GOP defection would be needed to block the nomination if all Democrats were opposed. 

OLD WOUNDS 
Democrats are still stinging from Republicans refusing to even grant a hearing to President Barack Obama's choice to serve on the Supreme Court, Merrick Garland. 
They are calling on Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, to wait until after the November election to schedule a hearing and vote. Mr McConnell has rejected that possibility, saying the decision to not fill the vacancy under Mr Obama was prefaced on it being a presidential election year. 
Democrats say Mr McConnell is being hypocritical in moving forward with the nomination. While that argument won't sway Republicans, their strategy could stiffen Democratic resolve to oppose the nominee. Liberal advocacy groups are challenging Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, to keep the Democrats united. 
19:35
As the announcement of a new Supreme Court justice nears, former White House communications director Anthony Scaramucci is running a poll on who is most likely to get the job.

19:33
Former Senator Jon Kyl will guide President Donald Trump's Supreme Court nominee through the Senate confirmation process. 

Known as 'Sherpas' - a reference to the guides that take climbers up Mount Everest - they liaise with the White House and keep an eye out for any roadblocks to the nomination.
 
White House spokesman Raj Shah said the Arizona Republican “has agreed to serve as the Sherpa for the President's nominee to the Supreme Court.” 

Mr Kyl, a former member of Republican leadership, served on the Senate Judiciary Committee before retiring from the Senate in January 2013. He works for Washington-based lobbying firm Covington & Burling. 
 
18:58
Mr Casey has pulled no punches in that series of tweets - saying that the nomination is a "corrupt bargain" between the "far right, big corporations and Washington special interests".

Mr Casey has called the Heritage Foundation far-right before, the think tank itself deny those claims.
 
18:49
Democratic Senator  Bob Casey of Pennsylvania — up for re-election later this year — says he'll be opposed to any nomination Donald Trump puts forward. 
Mr Casey says the list of judges Trump has used to find a Supreme Court nominee is the “fruit of a corrupt process straight from the DC swamp.” He cites involvement of the conservative Heritage Foundation think tank in drafting the list. 

Bob Salera, a campaign spokesman for Senate Republicans, said Casey has “given up any pretense of being a moderate voice” by opposing Mr Trump's nominee sight unseen. 
Casey says he is “pro-life,” but regularly sides with supporters of abortion rights in Senate votes. 
18:23
As Donald Trump's decision on his pick for the new Supreme Court justice nears, concerns are growing over the political leaning of his nominees. 
 
Many fear the conservative politics of certain candidates will see a shift to the right in social issues. For example Kamala Harris, senator for California, has shared her concerns in no uncertain terms on social media.

 
 
17:38
The new Supreme Court appointment will not change the ideological breakdown of a court that already has a 5-4 conservative majority, but nevertheless could move the court to the right. Retiring Justice AnthonyKennedy sometimes joined the liberal justices on key rulings on divisive social issues like abortion and gay rights, a practice his replacement may not duplicate.

President Donald Trump's selection will set up a confirmation showdown in the Senate, where his fellow Republicans hold a slim 51-49 majority, though with ailing Senator John McCain at home in Arizona as he faces cancer treatment they currently can muster only 50 votes. Without Republican defections, however, Senate rules leave Democrats with scant options to block confirmation of Mr Trump's nominee.
17:17
Republican Senators Lindsey Graham of South Carolina and Roy Blunt of Missouri said that they believe any of the top four contenders could get confirmed by the GOP-majority Senate. 

“They're good judges,” Mr Blunt said on NBC's “Meet the Press.” He added: “I think they'd be fine justices of the Supreme Court. I do think the president has to think about who is the easiest to get confirmed here. And I expect we will do that on sort of a normal timetable, a couple of months.” 

Outside adviser Leonard Leo, currently on leave from the Federalist Society, said on ABC's “This Week” that this kind of jockeying is standard, noting that “every potential nominee before announcement gets concerns expressed about them by people who might ultimately support them.” 
16:49
Republican Senate candidate Josh Hawley is warning Missouri voters that "our way of life is at risk" in a new television ad that seizes on the Supreme Court vacancy to attack his Democratic opponent, Senator Claire McCaskill. 

Mr Hawley began running the ad Monday, the same day President Donald Trump is scheduled to unveil his pick to replace retiring Supreme Court Justice Anthony Kennedy. The nomination is subject to Senate confirmation. 

The Supreme Court vacancy is expected to energise Republican voters across the nation in this fall's midterm elections. The 38-year-old Mr Hawley, Missouri's attorney general, has a special connection to the court: He clerked for Chief Justice John Roberts. 

The advert says: "The eyes of the nation are on Missouri. We decide which values control the Senate, and the Supreme Court." 
 
16:28
The conservative Judicial Crisis Network is set to launch a $1.4 million (£1.1m) ad buy on behalf of President Donald Trump's Supreme Court nominee. 

When the announcement is made later tonight, the campaign will kick off. It will feature cable and digital advertising - offering biographical information - in states including Alabama, Indiana, North Dakota and West Virginia. 

The group started advertising after Justice Anthony Kennedy announced his retirement. The new advert brings their total investment to $2.4 million. They will also launch a website with information on the nominee 
15:47
A number of activist groups have warned that a number of rights could be under threat when Mr Trump puts another conservative on the court.

From gay rights:
 

“I'm very close to making a final decision. And I believe this person will do a great job,” Mr Trump said. Asked by reporters how many people were being considered, the president said: “Let's say it's the four people ... they're excellent, every one.” 

While Trump did not name the four, top contenders for the role have included federal appeals judges Brett Kavanaugh, Raymond Kethledge, Amy Coney Barrett and Thomas Hardiman. The White House has been preparing information materials on all four, who were part of a longer list of 25 names vetted by conservative groups. 

Mr Trump tweeted later on Sunday that he was looking forward to the announcement and said an “exceptional person will be chosen!” He is hoping to replicate his successful announcement of Justice Neil Gorsuch last year. 

The president has spent the days leading up to the decision mulling the pros and cons of the various options with aides and allies. He expressed renewed interest in Mr Hardiman — the runner-up when Mr Trump nominated Justice Gorsuch, but his thinking is said to remain fluid.

Mr Hardiman has a personal connection to the president, having served with Mr Trump's sister on the 3rd US Circuit Court of Appeals in Philadelphia. He also has a compelling personal story: He went to the University of Notre Dame as the first person in his family to go to college. He financed his law degree at the Georgetown University Law Center by driving a taxi. 

Associated Press contributed to this report

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