Despite an indifferent first half to his maiden full season at the helm, Manchester United were seemingly content on trusting Ruben Amorim to lead a successful long-term project at Old Trafford.
However, a clash with director of football Jason Wilcox, among those pushing the Portuguese to switch to a back four, suddenly rendered Amorim’s position untenable. In the blink of an eye, Man Utd’s latest hope was out the door, forcing the club into their seventh interim appointment since Sir Alex Ferguson’s retirement.
The Red Devils have typically opted for familiarity when it comes to caretakers, and it‘s no different this time around. In fact, former midfielder Michael Carrick, who worked on José Mourinho and Ole Gunnar Solskjær’s coaching staffs at the club, is getting another go at the job, this time for a decent chunk of time.
Carrick previously served as Man Utd’s interim boss between Solskjær and Ralf Rangnick, winning two of his three games at the helm. Now, the ex-Middlesbrough boss has until the end of the 2025–26 season to impress, with INEOS likely pleading for stability as opposed to anything particularly swashbuckling.
While United have flattered to deceive for the most part this season, they’re actually in a pretty good spot in terms of their Premier League standing. A top-five finish and thus a place in next season’s Champions League must be the goal, and here’s how Opta’s supercomputer is currently projecting the rest of the season to play out for Carrick’s United.
Current Predicted 2025–26 Premier League Table
At the time of Carrick‘s arrival, Man Utd sit just one point of fifth-placed Brentford. It’s a congested middle-class, it has to be said, with a mere seven points separating the Bees and Bournemouth in 14th. Thus, any one of those in between will believe they at least have a chance of making a push during the second half of the season.
Opta, though, thinks the tight nature of the table will work against United. They’re projecting Carrick to lead the Red Devils to an eighth-place finish, amassing 54.39 points. That means they’ll pick up just 22 points from their final 17 games of the season, a rate of 1.29 points per game.
The supercomputer is backing Arsenal to canter to a first Premier League title in 22 years, with Manchester City and Aston Villa comfortably occupying second and third respectively. Liverpool, suddenly dull and quite unwatchable, are also predicted to qualify for next season’s Champions League without much fuss.
| Pos. | Team | Expected Points | Champions League Chances (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. | Arsenal | 84.50 | 100 |
| 2. | Man City | 74.64 | 98.19 |
| 3. | Aston Villa | 73.46 | 95.80 |
| 4. | Liverpool | 64.77 | 58.49 |
| 5. | Chelsea | 57.91 | 13.13 |
| 6. | Newcastle | 57.60 | 11.62 |
| 7. | Brentford | 57.03 | 9.65 |
| 8. | Man Utd | 54.39 | 3.69 |
| 9. | Brighton | 54.32 | 4.04 |
| 10. | Fulham | 53.17 | 2.30 |
| 11. | Crystal Palace | 50.96 | 0.97 |
| 12. | Tottenham | 49.90 | 0.90 |
| 13. | Sunderland | 49.73 | 0.44 |
| 14. | Everton | 49.30 | 0.50 |
| 15. | Bournemouth | 48.17 | 0.28 |
| 16. | Leeds | 41.23 | 0.00 |
| 17. | Nottingham Forest | 40.48 | 0.00 |
| 18. | West Ham | 30.21 | 0.00 |
| 19. | Burnley | 28.35 | 0.00 |
| 20. | Wolves | 22.03 | 0.00 |
However, there’s set to be a battle for what will likely be the final spot in UEFA’s premier club competition. Opta are backing Chelsea to edge Newcastle United, but an array of teams could throw themselves into the mix, including Man Utd. Their projected points haul is barely three worse off than Chelsea’s.
Despite this, United’s chances of Champions League qualification are rated as low as 3.69%. Brentford (9.65%) are supposedly more likely, as are Brighton & Hove Albion (4.04%).
An eighth-place finish may be enough for a spot in next season’s Conference League, which United supporters would be thrilled about, but that would depend on the final league positions of the Carabao Cup and FA Cup winners. Last season, Brighton, who finished eighth, missed out on Europe because of Crystal Palace’s domestic cup success.
Still, at least it’s a major improvement on 2024–25.
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This article was originally published on www.si.com as Supercomputer Predicts Man Utd Finish As Michael Carrick Takes Over.
