Through two games of the Champions League season, we’re already a quarter of the way into the league phase and a clear picture of how the competition will transpire is starting to emerge.
Six teams have a perfect record after two games. Others have had a difficult start to their Champions League season.
Bayern Munich are the current table-toppers after a pair of lopsided victories, followed closely by Real Madrid. All six Premier League teams in the competitions have already managed at least one win, and in the marquee matchup of the league phase so far, reigning champions Paris Saint-Germain defeated Barcelona.
Regardless of there still being six games to go in the league phase, it’s never too early to start thinking about the knockout rounds. Opta’s supercomputer has been hard at work trying to forecast what will transpire in the coming months and the future looks bright for a number of European giants.
Supercomputer Predicts 2025–26 Champions League Top Eight Qualifying Teams
The top eight teams on the table come the end of the league phase will secure automatic qualification to the round of 16. As of right now, arguably the eight best teams in all of Europe are predicted to finish in the top eight.
Following a perfect start to their European campaign, Arsenal are predicted to finish top of the league phase. After their impressive away win at Montjuic, current holders PSG are penciled in to come in second when the league phase concludes.
German giants Bayern Munich currently sit at the top, but Opta has them finishing third. Kylian Mbappé already has five goals in the Champions League season, a huge reason why Real Madrid are expected to come in fourth.
Pep Guardiola’s Man City failed to make the round of 16 a season ago but they’re now predicted to finish fifth—a finishing point which could have been higher had they not slumped to a draw against Monaco.
Both Barcelona and Liverpool will be disappointed after losing in Gameweek 2. However, the top-two finishers in the league phase from a season ago are still expected to rebound and finish sixth and seventh respectively.
Last year’s finalists Inter are predicted to secure the final direct qualification spot with an eighth place finish.
Supercomputer Predicts 2025–26 Champions League Knockout Round Playoff Teams
Teams that finish the league phase from ninth all the way down to 24th will play in the knockout round playoffs, a two-legged home and away series to determine the final eight teams that will complete the round of 16 bracket.
The three remaining Premier League teams in the competition, Chelsea, Tottenham Hotspur and Newcastle United are all expected to qualify without much trouble. The supercomputer even predicts them all hosting the away leg of said playoff round.
Similarly, Opta predicts the four three remaining Serie A teams will also make it to the knockout rounds, with Napoli, Atalanta and Juventus all advancing with relative ease.
Borussia Dortmund and Atlético Madrid have become regulars in the do-or-die stages of the Champions League. After emphatic victories in Gameweek 2, both teams are expected to finish well among the top- 24.
Azerbaijani side Qarabag FK have impressed with two wins so far and that should catapult them into the knockout playoffs. Belgian outfit Union St. Gilloise, who are making their Champions League debut, are also forecasted to make it through.
After defeating Liverpool, Galatasaray are expected to advance to the knockout playoff series. Sporting CP and Marseille will meet on Gameweek 3 and both teams are also projected to progress past the league phase.
Club Brugge survived and qualified in 24th a season ago and are expected to make it to the knockout stage playoffs for the second campaign in a row.
In their first Champions League appearance since making the semifinals in 2021–22, Opta predicts Villarreal to narrowly make it through in 22nd. Finally, if the supercomputer is correct, Eintracht Frankfurt will capture the final ticket to the knockout round playoffs.
Bayer Leverkusen, who finished sixth in the 2024–25 league phase, are forecasted to be the first team to miss out on qualification this season.
Supercomputer Predicts Top Five Favorites to Win 2025–26 Champions League After Gameweek 2
Mikel Arteta’s Gunners will hope Opta’s crystal ball proves to be prophetic, as it currently gives Arsenal a 17.39% chance of winning their first ever Champions League, the best odds of any team after Gameweek 2.
Despite their recent defeat, Liverpool have the second best odds with 14.43%. The supercomputer might predict Liverpool to fend off Arsenal in its Premier League predictions, but the order between the two is flipped when it comes to the Champions League.
The third best odds belong to Paris Saint-Germain. Luis Enrique’s reigning champions are given a 12.47% chance of repeating as European monarchs.
The only other team with double-digit odds of winning the Champions League are Barcelona. Hansi Flick’s side got an early wake-up call from PSG, but they still currently have a 10.37% probability of ending an 11-year Champions League drought, the fourth best of any team.
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This article was originally published on www.si.com as Supercomputer Predicts Champions League Knockout Stage Qualifying Teams After Gameweek 2.
