The recent March international break finalized the list of all 48 teams set to compete at the 2026 World Cup this summer.
There is no place for four-time champion Italy on the global stage for the third time running, but most of the planet’s biggest teams will travel to the United States, Canada and Mexico to duke it out for the world title currently held by Argentina.
Argentina is looking to become the first team to defend its crown since Brazil in 1962, which would be a remarkable achievement considering there has been a different winner at each tournament since the turn of the century.
With excitement for this summer’s World Cup ramping up, the Opta supercomputer has been whirring away to pick out the favorite to go all the way in the United States, Canada and Mexico.
Supercomputer Predicts Winner of 2026 World Cup
It’s the European champion that is backed to lift the World Cup in July, with Spain sitting atop Opta’s rankings.
Inspired by Barcelona stars like Lamine Yamal, Pedri and Fermín López, Spain is given a 16.02% chance of going all the way this summer. La Roja last won the World Cup in 2010, before falling into a minor slump. But Luis de la Fuente’s team is back and firmly in the mix these days.
The biggest threat to Spain is believed to be France. A penalty shootout was all that came between Les Bleus and a second consecutive crown in 2022, while three of the last five finals have featured France. Backing Didier Deschamps’s side, with a chance of 12.54%, is a strong bet.
England is next up, given a 10.66% chance of winning its first global crown since 1966. The Three Lions are a somewhat unknown commodity under Thomas Tuchel and have yet to really catch the eye, but there can be no denying the level of quality surging through the England squad.
Just one more nation is given a strong chance of winning. Reigning champion Argentina falls narrowly behind at 10.09% as Lionel Messi seeks to end his international career on the ultimate high.
| Nation | Chances of Winning |
|---|---|
| Spain | 16.02% |
| France | 12.54% |
| England | 10.66% |
| Argentina | 10.09% |
Beyond that quartet, a drop down in chances of winning suggests anything else would come as a significant shock. Looking to upset the odds are Portugal (6.92%) and Brazil (6.82%).
Germany sits marginally below with a 5.84% chance of reclaiming a title last won in 2014, given little hope of matching Brazil’s record of winning five World Cups.
The Netherlands (3.86%) and Norway (3.30%) will be the dark horses for this one, given more chance than Belgium (2.35%) in a clear sign that the latter’s golden generation is fully over. Colombia (2.10%) will be expecting a deep run this summer.
| Nation | Chances of Winning |
|---|---|
| Portugal | 6.92% |
| Brazil | 6.82% |
| Germany | 5.84% |
| Netherlands | 3.86% |
| Norway | 3.30% |
| Belgium | 2.35% |
| Colombia | 2.10% |
Just nine more teams are given anything more than a 1% chance of winning. Morocco (1.93%) is seen as the biggest hope in Africa, having captivated a global audience four years ago with a run to the semifinals.
Of the three cohosts, it is Mexico leading the way with a 1.74% chance of winning. That puts El Tri comfortably ahead of the United States (1.24%), while Canada sits just outside the top 20 teams at 0.82%.
| Nation | Chances of Winning |
|---|---|
| Morocco | 1.93% |
| Mexico | 1.74% |
| Uruguay | 1.66% |
| Switzerland | 1.61% |
| Croatia | 1.37% |
| Ecuador | 1.34% |
| Japan | 1.25% |
| United States | 1.24% |
| Türkiye | 1.03% |
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This article was originally published on www.si.com as Supercomputer Predicts 2026 World Cup Winner.
