The first weekend of the 2026 Major League Soccer season is in the books, and defending MLS Cup champions Inter Miami were on the wrong side of a statement result.
The Herons made the trip to the West Coast to take on Los Angeles FC in the marquee match of an action-packed opening slate. A historic crowd of 75,673 fans filled the Los Angeles Coliseum to watch Lionel Messi face off with Son Heung-min.
The Black & Gold dominated what was ultimately a one-sided affair, securing a 3–0 victory over Inter Miami thanks to goals from David Martínez, Denis Bouanga and Nathan Ordaz. The defeat for Javier Mascherano’s men threw into question whether the new-look Herons could mount a successful title defense.
Here’s how Opta’s supercomputer predicts the MLS regular season to pan out following the madness of opening weekend.
Supercomputer Predicts 2026 MLS Cup Winners
| Predicted Position | Club | Current Points | Expected Points | Title Chances |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LAFC | 3 | 64.31 | 16.30% |
| 2 | Sounders | 3 | 62.26 | 12.82% |
| 3 | Inter Miami | 0 | 61.75 | 14.18% |
| 4 | Whitecaps | 3 | 58.81 | 8.90% |
After they ran riot against Inter Miami, LAFC are Opta’s early pick to win MLS Cup. Marc Dos Santos’s men have a 16.30% chance of lifting the Philip F. Anschutz Trophy for the first time since 2022.
The supercomputer also tipped the Black & Gold to win the Supporters’ Shield with around 64 points come Decision Day in November. Seattle Sounders are projected to finish the regular season only two points behind LAFC, blocking them from topping the Western Conference and winning the Supporters’ Shield.
Inter Miami’s opening weekend defeat puts them third in Opta’s overall standings. The Herons are still expected to finish first in the Eastern Conference, though, with 61.75 points considered enough to get the job done. The total would be four less than their 65 from last year, which was only enough for third place.
The good news for the Herons is that Opta ranks them as the second-favorites to win MLS Cup. The defending champions have a 14.18% chance of going back-to-back.
After their storybook run to the MLS Cup final last year, Vancouver Whitecaps only have a 8.90% chance of claiming the elusive title. Although it’s the fourth-highest odds among the 30 MLS clubs, it paints a less-than-ideal picture for the Western Conference side still seeking its first-ever MLS Cup.
Supercomputer Predicts Inter Miami’s 2026 MLS Season
Inter Miami might only have one game under their belt this season, but it came against arguably their biggest challengers for the 2026 MLS Cup. The worrying result has fans wondering if the lopsided defeat is a sign of things to come, or just a tale of a flat performance.
Opta provided some clarity to the burning questions by predicting the following chances for the Herons’ in 2026:
- Supporters’ Shield: 33.70%
- Making the Playoffs: 94.32%
- Winning the Conference: 27.48%
- Winning MLS Cup: 14.18%
Even though Mascherano’s men may trail LAFC in the overall predictions, they still have a staggering 94.32% chance of making the MLS Cup playoffs—and if there’s one thing the club proved last year, it is that the postseason is a whole new game.
After all, in 2025, Inter Miami finished third in Eastern Conference and third in the Supporters’ Shield race. Yet when it came to the playoffs, they were the best team in the league and ultimately crowned the new kings of MLS.
As long as there is a place for the Herons in the MLS Cup playoffs, they are the team to beat in the fight for the Philip F. Anschutz Trophy, even if they do not win their conference or tally the most points in the division.
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This article was originally published on www.si.com as Supercomputer Predicts 2026 MLS Cup Winners After LAFC Send Inter Miami Spiraling.
