Manchester United have been given a 39 per cent chance of securing a top-four finish in the Premier League this season, following a recent upturn in form.
Despite being beaten 3-1 by Aston Villa in their first game under new head coach Unai Emery on Sunday, United have made significant strides in recent weeks. Since being humbled 6-3 by Manchester City in the derby at the start of October, the Reds have won three of their last six league matches, with their only defeat coming at Villa.
That recent run of results featured an excellent 2-0 win over top-four rivals Tottenham Hotspur, as well as a 1-1 draw against Chelsea at Stamford Bridge. Erik ten Hag is beginning to get a more consistent tune out of his players, even if the odd bump in the road is still to be expected.
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Naturally, their recent form has changed the outlook on their hopes of forcing their way back into the conversation for Champions League football for next season. After finishing sixth last term, United are desperate to get back into Europe's premier club competition.
As per the fivethirtyeight supercomputer, United have been given a 39 per cent chance of qualifying for the Champions League next season. At the moment, only Manchester City (98), Arsenal (87) and Liverpool (52) have been given a higher percentage chance.
Tottenham, who are currently inside the top four, despite losing three of their last four games, have only been given a 36 per cent chance of staying there come the end of the season. Antonio Conte's side have been poor of late and United are just three points and one place behind them in the table.
More specifically, the supercomputer has given United a 16 per cent chance of finishing in fourth place and a 14 per cent chance of finishing third. Considering the club is still going through a transitional period, a top-four finish would be an excellent achievement for Ten Hag, regardless of what position they finish in.
On the flip side, although nobody is talking about it now and never was at the start of the campaign, United have been given just a one per cent chance of winning the Premier League title this term. Arsenal and Manchester City currently lead the way in that battle and, at the moment, look unlikely to be joined by anyone else in the race.
How does the supercomputer work?
FiveThirtyEight uses SPI ratings, which have an attacking and defensive component to determine which team is going to win any specific game. This is then all built up to see how many points each side will accumulate by the end of the season.
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