Nottingham Forest's chances of staying in the Premier League took a major hit this weekend, with statisticians calculating that the Reds are more likely to get relegated than not.
Defeat to Newcastle United at the City Ground on Friday night extended their winless run to five games and dragged them ever closer to the dropzone. Positive results for many of their rivals in the relegation battle has only increased anxiety over a possible return to the Championship.
Leeds United picked up all three points with a 4-2 win over Wolves, while Everton, Leicester City and Southampton all took a point from their perspective games against Chelsea, Brentford and Tottenham.
Data buffs at FiveThirtyEight have crunched the numbers to predict just how likely each club in nine teams fighting relegation are to go down, taking into account factors such as squad strength, fixture schedule and underlying performance metrics, e.g. expected goals.
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Despite sitting just above the relegation zone, Leicester City are given just a 13 percent chance of going down after they drew with Brentford. Southampton are still the most likely to be relegated, according to the statistics, despite picking up a dramatic draw against Tottenham.
The stats are not in Forest's favour, though. They are now given a 56 per cent chance of being relegated, meaning they are now the second most likely team to go down after the Saints.
Below you will find the bottom nine teams in the Premier League and their likeliness to get relegated calculated as a percentage.
Premier League Relegation Predictor:
12. Crystal Palace 10%
13. Wolves 23%
14. Leeds 17%
15. Everton 40%
16. Nottingham Forest 56%
17. Leicester City 13%
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18. West Ham 19%
19. Bournemouth 54%
20. Southampton 68%
Will Forest stay up? Comment below!
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