In the shadow of Super Netball’s most tumultuous season – punctuated by fury over rule changes, a last-minute relocation to Queensland, the first send-off, the national captain being benched and a racism row which has shaken the sport to its core – finals begin this weekend.
Despite constant controversy on and off the court in 2020, it could be one of netball’s great truisms – that defence wins championships – which proves the best predictor of who will be crowned premiers in a fortnight.
In Super Netball’s inaugural season, the Sunshine Coast Lightning had the best defensive record and won the title. In 2018, Lightning were second-best defensively, by just a goal, and went on to claim back-to-back flags. And last year, the NSW Swifts took the mantle and beat Lightning, mainly thanks to a superlative effort at the back.
This year, minor premiers the Melbourne Vixens have the best defensive record, conceding an average of just 55 goals a game. Might history be on the Victorians’ side? The statistics suggest it is possible.
The only top four side not to have lost to any other finalist, Simone McKinnis’s side have dropped just two games this season, and drawn one, when they clawed back a 14-goal deficit against West Coast Fever.
In the best smothering performance of the year, the Vixens kept the Adelaide Thunderbirds, blessed with several stand-out goalers, to just 43 goals. In that match, keeper Em Mannix, who has shared a bib with Jamaican Kadie-Ann Dehaney this year, took a season-high eight intercepts, just one off the league record she set in 2019. Mannix also had 10 deflections.
While dedicated defenders like Mannix, Dehaney, Jo Weston and Kate Eddy get much of the credit for such results, disciplined defence is weaved through the Vixens’ play across the court. They get “hands over” everything, creating pressure on the passer and they chase tips hard.
If the Vixens go all the way this year, intercepts, deflections, rebounds, pressure over the shot, leads covered and forced bad passes – those non-flashy, selfless acts, some of which are not even recorded – will be key.
The other side of the ledger matters too, and despite not re-writing their game plan to exploit the controversial two-goal super shot, the Melburnian side have excelled at it.
Combined, Tegan Philip, Caitlin Thwaites and Mwai Kumwenda have knocked down 81 from 126 super attempts across the regular season, the most accurate in the league at 60%. They also have the best feeder in the league in Liz Watson.
To make the grand final, the Vixens have to get past Sunshine Coast in a major semi-final, to be played on the Lightning’s home court on Saturday afternoon. The winner will go straight through to the 18 October decider, while the loser will have to go via a preliminary next week.
The Vixens beat Kylee Byrne’s side in both meetings this year; first by 12 goals in early August, when mid-to-long range specialist Steph Wood shot just 3/6 supers and again on Sunday, by just four, set up by a dominant early defensive display. But McKinnis has made it clear finals are different.
Wood has not dominated matches this year, but she has scored more supers than anyone else in the league, putting in 45 from 76 at 59% accuracy. She has partnered well with Cara Koenan, the stand-out young Australian shooter of the season, so Mannix and Weston will have their work cut out for them.
Lightning also have the formidable pairing of Karla Pretorius, who leads the league with 38 intercepts and tends to rise in big moments, and Phumza Maweni in defence. Match-winners on their own, if they are both on-song, the Vixens will need to react and adapt.
In the minor semi-final, to be played on the Sunshine Coast on Sunday, the Fever, coached by new Diamonds boss Stacey Marinkovich, face reigning premiers the Swifts for a place in the preliminary.
With two of the league’s most prolific scorers, in Fever’s Jhaniele Fowler, who averages 57 goals a game, and the Swifts’ Sam Wallace at each end, goals are guaranteed, meaning who gets the ascendancy defensively may have the edge. The sides have split the honours in their two meetings this year.
If Diamonds and Fever keeper Courtney Bruce can get on top of Wallace early and start hunting for ball outside the circle, the Swifts, who have only won one of their last five, will be in trouble.
Conversely, if the Fever cannot find an answer for Helen Housby – who has battled both injury and illness this season, but has the ability to break open any game – and have to move Bruce out to GD, they risk being exposed at the back, given their lack of defensive depth. Defence, after all, can win championships.
