It has been a month since the Cabinet of Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga was formed Sept. 16. The following is the third installment of a series analyzing Suga's brand of politics.
As an advocate of factionless politics, Yoshihide Suga's path to the prime ministership was cleared by lawmakers who aligned with him but do not belong to any faction.
On the evening of Oct. 13, about 15 young members of the House of Representatives gathered around Suga at a restaurant in Tokyo. While not affiliated with any faction, the young lawmakers are members of a group called Ganesha no Kai, which takes its name from the Hindu god.
After having his picture taken with each member of the group, Suga reiterated his strong intentions, saying, "I want to forge ahead with drastic reforms." The members presented him with a collection of messages that included phases such as "Where there is a will, there is a way," and "For the people of Japan." They were phrases that Suga himself likes to use.
In the election for president of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party, five factions supporting Suga joined the campaign task force, but it was the Ganesha group that were willing to work in the background.
"It has spontaneously become a group before we realized it," said Deputy Chief Cabinet Secretary Manabu Sakai, a leading member of the Ganesha group, who, like Suga, was elected from a Kanagawa Prefecture constituency. In the 2018 LDP presidential election, the Ganesha group was mobilized under Suga to gain support from factionless lawmakers for former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe.
--True feelings
Up to the time that Abe announced his resignation, Suga had clearly stated he had "never considered" becoming the post-Abe prime minister. Did he really think that? Ganesha group members had a chance to ask Suga about it.
It was at an Italian restaurant in Tokyo on the evening of June 30. One member, mindful of the LDP presidential election in September of next year when Abe's term was set to expire, broached the subject when he turned to Suga and bluntly stated, "You should be prime minister." Suga lightly chuckled and began recounting his own memories of supporting Abe's return in the 2012 presidential election.
While Suga's response was not direct, one Ganesha member recalled: "Looking back, what he said was very meaningful. I think it might have implied, 'You should push me up to the position of prime minister.'"
Suga, who belonged to a faction in the past, understands firsthand how difficult it is to be factionless. There are about 25 mid-ranking and young factionless lawmakers who are regarded as affiliated with Suga. When he was chief cabinet secretary, Suga looked after factionless members of the House of Councillors in addition to the Ganesha group. Suga has dealt with the factionless through appointments of state minister and parliamentary vice-minister, saying, "I'm watching out for any unfair treatment in personnel matters."
Senior lawmakers with no faction affiliations, including National Public Safety Commission Chairperson Hachiro Okonogi and Economy, Trade and Industry Minister Hiroshi Kajiyama, are also aligned with Suga, leading some in the party to chaff at the "de facto faction called factionless."
--Bolstered presence
With a weak political base within the party, Suga raised his presence by building pipelines outside the party.
One is his connection with ruling coalition partner Komeito. Suga is particularly tight with the party's former secretary general Tetsuo Saito, with whom he frequently talked by cell phone when he was chief cabinet secretary.
The two met at midday on Oct. 7 at a Chinese restaurant in a Tokyo hotel. The purpose was to commend Saito, who had stepped down as secretary general, for his long years of service.
Saito told Suga, "I'm also the head of the party's general election task force, so I'm counting on you to continue working with us."
Komeito's biggest concern is the timing of a possible dissolution of the House of Representatives. Komeito wants to avoid an early dissolution because Soka Gakkai, the party's main support base and the key player in campaigns, has been forced to hold back on activities due to the coronavirus pandemic.
Suga is said to have a direct "hotline" to Soka Gakkai's vice chairman, Hiroshi Sato. Sato is the de facto manager of election-related activities for both Komeito and Soka Gakkai. The two met through an acquaintance when the Democratic Party of Japan was in power. Since the LDP regained power, they have been communicating directly, including on the political situation. Some within the Soka Gakkai believe that a "sign of dissolution" should be given as soon as possible.
--Phantom joining of forces
Suga also has a solid relationship with the Nippon Ishin no Kai. He is especially close to Osaka Mayor Ichiro Matsui, who serves as the party's president.
The relationship between Suga and Matsui deepened after Matsui became governor of Osaka Prefecture in the fall of 2011, when the party won the double election for both governor and mayor of Osaka. When Suga met Matsui, a former LDP member, he sympathized with Matsui's stance on overcoming vested interests, and the two hit it off.
Prior to the 2012 election for the House of Representatives, Matsui and Toru Hashimoto, a former mayor of Osaka, approached Suga, who had been close to Abe in the opposition Liberal Democratic Party, and called for a joining of forces. At that time, Matsui and Hashimoto belonged to the regional Osaka Ishin no Kai party, which was aiming to advance into national politics and become a third force.
When word got out about the contact with the Osaka Ishin no Kai, which was in the spotlight at the time, it bolstered Abe's presence, who had been deemed a "has-been" after stepping down as prime minister. Although they did not join forces, Abe won the LDP presidential election that year. In the subsequent lower house election, the LDP returned to power with a resounding victory.
Even after Suga became chief cabinet secretary, he maintained good relations with Matsui, and from time to time the two men share meals with Abe and Hashimoto.
As Matsui puts his political life on the line in the Nov. 1 referendum to implement the Osaka metropolis plan, Suga is taking a wait-and-see attitude. The LDP's Osaka prefectural chapter is at odds with the Nippon Ishin no Kai, and some observers say staying on the sidelines is the most support Suga can offer.
For Suga, the Nippon Ishin no Kai, which keeps its distance from other opposition parties that are increasingly critical of his administration such as the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan and the Japanese Communist Party, is important as a way to drive a wedge between the opposition parties. Suga's consideration of the Nippon Ishin no Kai has been carefully calculated with an eye toward the future management of the administration.
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