A large-scale study examining thousands of U.S. neighborhoods found no evidence that increases in undocumented immigration drive crime, challenging a connection President Donald Trump has repeatedly made while advocating for stricter immigration enforcement.
The research, published in the Journal of Urban Affairs, tracked crime trends across 11,500 neighborhoods representing about 46 million residents in U.S. cities between 2010 and 2018. Researchers found that neighborhoods where the share of undocumented residents increased experienced greater declines in property crime and no significant change in violent crime.
"Consistent with the research base more generally, unauthorized immigration does not drive crime rates in U.S. neighborhoods," said lead author Charis Kubrin, a criminology professor at the University of California, Irvine.
The study, co-authored by researchers from UC Irvine, Stanford University and the University of Akron, is the first to examine the relationship between undocumented immigration and crime at the neighborhood level on such a broad national scale. Previous research had largely examined the question at the state or metropolitan level.
The findings contrast with a central argument Trump has used to support tighter immigration policies. During his 2024 presidential campaign, Trump repeatedly highlighted crimes committed by undocumented immigrants, labeling them "Biden migrant crime" and arguing that stricter border controls were necessary to protect Americans.
The administration has maintained the public-safety framing during Trump's second term. In February, the White House claimed its immigration policies were "protecting our communities" and highlighted the deportation of immigrants charged with or convicted of crimes among its enforcement accomplishments.
Researchers behind the new study estimated undocumented populations using restricted Census data and a methodology similar to one used by the Department of Homeland Security.
One finding differed from the overall pattern: robberies increased in neighborhoods with growing undocumented populations, even as aggravated assaults and property crimes declined. Researchers said the pattern may reflect undocumented immigrants being targeted as victims rather than committing robberies themselves.
"An increase in robberies, despite decreases in all other crime categories, would be consistent with the idea that undocumented immigrants are disproportionately likely to be targets of robbery given greater involvement in the cash economy," co-author John Hipp said.
The researchers cautioned that their data do not identify victims' immigration status, meaning the study cannot definitively establish that explanation.
