Strategy corner - How teams will tackle cold, rainy…

A morning shower at Silverstone had just abated by the time we put pen to paper. Rain was forecast throughout the Formula 1 British Grand Prix weekend but, apart from the odd droplet, it held off until Sunday morning.

The strategies for the race are entirely dependent on whether we see more of it throughout the afternoon. But, since the British weather is about as predictable as the lottery, we'll not go through every single permutation.

What we do know is that temperatures are low and, in the case of dry weather, this will change the way that the tyres operate during the course of Silverstone's 52-lap race. The high-load corners around the former aerodrome put a lot of stress on the tyre shoulders and sidewalls and, in warmer races, this has often promoted high levels of thermal degradation as the tyres deform through Stowe, Copse, et al.

In colder conditions, with track temperatures likely to be around 25C or lower, thermal degradation is not going to be the limiting factor in the Pirellis - it'll be graining. High levels of graining will yield high physical wear, and that'll put tyre strategy on a knife edge.

Per Pirelli motorsport chief Mario Isola, there's a possible two-, three-second difference between stopping once and stopping twice - very slightly in the favour of the two-stop. That doesn't sound like much, and track position might be worth pursuing by sticking to one stop as overtaking is not likely to be straightforward, but this could be compounded by the tyre wear. Through longer stints, careful management is needed to avoid the worst of the graining issues expected; without that diligence, then the one-stopper can very quickly unfurl.

The two-stop, then, is probably the safer bet.

Lance Stroll, Aston Martin Racing, Yuki Tsunoda, Red Bull Racing Team (Photo by: Sam Bloxham / LAT Images via Getty Images)

A one-stopper would likely comprise a medium-hard strategy, or vice versa for those out of position looking to try something different. Two-stop strategies would preferably, per Isola, follow the medium-hard-hard pattern. The problem with this for Aston Martin, Williams, Racing Bulls and Haas is that they only have one set of hard tyres remaining. A medium-hard-soft is possible, but would require extending the previous two stints as the soft would only be useful for 10 to 14 laps.

As mentioned, the cooler conditions will avoid the issue of thermal degradation and create more mechanical issues for the tyres, but how will that precipitate? Isola explains that the front-left is primed for a bit of a battering around the circuit, given the plethora of high-speed, high-load right-hand corners.

"The limitation is the front left, and it is about wear, while the degradation is something they can manage," Isola explained. “We saw [on Friday] from the long runs that the degradation was quite manageable. They can manage the race pace in order to keep the degradation at the level they want.

"The medium was working well - don't forget that we are one step softer compared to last year, so the medium that we have this year was the soft last year, and it was working well. The hard for sure is a consistent tyre, and they don't have an issue with tyre management with a hard compound. With cooler conditions, we didn't have an issue with warm-up."

Isola said that the calculated delta between the medium and the hard was largely based on Friday's warmer conditions; with the change in temperatures and potential loss in grip due to the Sunday morning rain, this could expand the difference between the two tyres.

"Clearly, in colder conditions, maybe the hard could have a slightly lower grip compared to what we have seen yesterday,” he added. “It is a possibility. The delta lap time between hard and medium was at 0.7s, I believe, in the range of 0.7s. If the hard has less grip than expected, this delta could be a little bit more.

Lando Norris, McLaren, Oscar Piastri, McLaren, Max Verstappen, Red Bull Racing (Photo by: Jakub Porzycki / NurPhoto / Getty Images)

"Then we know that during the race, because of the pace management, the delta usually is reduced. We have to consider that the number we can see is lower, but the difference between the two tyres could be higher because of the temperature."

In the event of wet weather, the intermediate will get a run-out; based on the findings from last year's race, the intermediate delivered strong grip but began to fall apart quickly in the drying conditions as the thermal management of a very soft and treaded compound proved tricky.

Either way, cold conditions will ensure that teams have to maximise their time on the softer compounds, if Isola's suggestion of a larger delta comes to pass. Nobody has two sets of mediums available, so extending the stint on the C3s and potentially dipping into the allowance of soft tyres later on might be the game plan for a few teams.

"If we have rain in the morning and the track is not in perfect dry condition at the start of the race, it's much better to start on the medium rather than the hard, because clearly you have more grip in these changeable conditions," Isola concluded. Of course, this could all be moot if the heavens open up before the race...

...and as we say that, it's started raining again.