Age shall not weary them
Queensland’s iconic spine may not have a single player younger than 31 but New South Wales should not – and will not – think the fabulous foursome are vulnerable because of their advancing years. Last year’s series win by the Blues was not an indication that Cameron Smith, Johnathan Thurston, Billy Slater and Cooper Cronk had reached the end of their incredible run.
There is certainly nothing to suggest any of the four have had a drop in their performances this year. Thurston, the defending Dally M Player of the Year, has an incredible 13 try assists in just 10 matches to go with two tries of his own. Smith has been arguably Melbourne’s best this year and ranks in the top 10 in dummy half runs and tackles while he sits 13th in line break assists. Slater ranks second among all full-backs in try assists despite missing three games with injury. And Cronk continues to rank as the game’s most effective and consistent kicker.
If the Blues are to beat the Maroons for a second straight year – and a third straight series opener – it won’t be because this foursome has reached the end of the line.
Reputations on the line
New South Wales coach Laurie Daley did something few of his predecessors did with team selection last season by picking a pair of halves on form and not standing and avoiding selections based on type rather than performance. It worked. Trent Hodkinson and Josh Reynolds were hardly fashionable but they managed to do what Mitchell Pearce had not done in the previous four years – lead New South Wales to a series victory.
Daley has discarded the successful formula to return to Pearce this year. Wingers Daniel Tupou and Will Hopoate were chosen on the back of quality club form in 2014. They were chosen on reputation and size this year. In-form South Sydney winger Alex Johnston – who was selected for Australia and has 28 tries in 30 games – was overlooked for Hopoate, who has struggled for the last-placed Eels playing fullback and centre.
Daley – and advisor Bob Fulton – have reverted to selection by type in 2015. Halves have been picked on an ability to tackle rather than an ability to create tries. Wingers have been picked on height rather than an ability to score them. This conservative approach hasn’t worked for the Blues in the past and the duo are putting their reputations on the line by backing it to come up trumps in 2015.
Lethal left
Queensland’s ability to score down their left edge has become the stuff of legend and with Hopoate playing out of position, the Maroons will again be ready to fire plenty of their attack through Greg Inglis and Darius Boyd.
Inglis and Boyd have become Origin’s greatest tryscorers with 15 apiece thanks in part to Johnathan Thurston’s preference for directing play to the left. Boyd has scored three tries in each of the last three series while Inglis is looking to break his longest Origin tryscoring drought, currently standing at four matches.
It has become almost an Origin tradition for the Maroons to target the left winger du jour of the Blues. They will again. Hopoate will be tested time and time again and if he fails to play shutdown defence then the Blues are unlikely to come away with the series opener on Wednesday night.
Tryscoring Blues
New South Wales managed just four tries in last year’s series win, a serious statistical improbability. That was with tryscoring wizard Jarryd Hayne, who crossed for one of the four. In 2013 the Blues managed just five. The last time New South Wales managed three tries in a game was the 2012 deciding game three.
This year the Blues go in without Hayne and with centres Michael Jennings and Josh Morris as their highest tryscorers with just three apiece. With a halves pairing who have shown little creativity at Origin level in 15 combined matches and five of seven backs who don’t have a tryscoring strike rate of 50% over the last three years, it will be fascinating to see where New South Wales’ tries come from. And such is the concern with the Blues’ ability to put points on the board that a score in excess of 12 should be good enough for the Maroons.
The start of something brilliant
Michael Morgan was a late call-up to the Maroons team but he could prove a critical inclusion. While nobody could question the class of Daly Cherry-Evans, his role in the team seemed superfluous to needs with Thurston and Cronk in the halves and Smith an 80-minute hooker.
Morgan gives Queensland speed, punch and utility value off the bench. He has been in devastating form and if the game is close at the death and Morgan comes on with fresh legs, he could break the game open for the Maroons. This might be Morgan’s Origin debut but it certainly won’t be his last game for the Maroons.
