Afternoon summary
- Labour has announced that it will use a humble address vote tomorrow to try to force the government to publish its Brexit legal advice. (See 4.15pm.)
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Ministers have been cautioned against reintroducing random stop and search as part of a plan to bolster police powers in the war on knife crime. As the Press Association reports, shadow Home Office minister Afzal Khan, who is a former police officer, told the Commons that random stop and search would “poison community-police relations”. He spoke out after Sajid Javid, the home secretary, said that he wanted to make it “easier for police to be able to use [stop and search] and reduce the bureaucracy around it”. Speaking during a Commons urgent question, Khan said:
Intelligence-led stop and search does work, it is an important tool in the police arsenal. I’m in favour of it, the Labour party is in favour of it, random stop and search doesn’t work and he has no evidence it will. We do know however it can poison community-police relations.
In response the Home Office minister Nick Hurd said that the government has “no plans to change the requirement that reasonable grounds for suspicion are needed before a routine stop and search is carried out”.
- James Brokenshire, the communities secretary, has defended the government’s decision to put the philospher Sir Roger Scruton in charge of a government housing commission. As the Press Association reports, the government was urged to sack the academic last week after it emerged he had described homosexuality as “not normal” and said Islamophobia was a “propaganda word”. But in the Commons, responding to an urgent question on this, Brokenshire said:
It saddens me that someone who has done so much to champion freedom of speech, freedom of expressions, freedom of thought should be subject to the kind of misinformed, ill-judged and very personal attacks of the kind that we have seen over the last few days.
As a public intellectual, a renowned author of over 50 books, countless articles and public lectures he has engaged in a variety of topics often expressing, yes, strong and controversial views.
Most of what is reported is highly selective, taken completely out of context and distorted to paint an inaccurate picture. I don’t have to agree with Sir Roger to acknowledge this nor do I have to agree with his views on a number of different issues but we live in a free society were people can hold different opinions.
That’s all from me for today.
Comments will close around 6pm. Thanks for contributions posted already.
UK could end up with no deal Brexit or Tory leadership contest by accident, says Rees-Mogg
Jacob Rees-Mogg, the Conservative Brexiter and chair of the European Research Group, which represents Tory MPs pushing for a harder Brexit, has told the Sydney Morning Herald that the UK could end up with a Tory leadership contest, or a no deal Brexit, by accident. There were two risks in British politics at the moment, he said.
One is the risk of an accidental leadership election and the other is an accidental departure from the European Union without any agreement having been made. There’s no great campaign but it could just happen without anybody really planning ... and that could happen at any point, it’s not under anybody’s specific control.
The European Union has been urged to remain “steadfast” over its guarantees to Northern Ireland by pro-Remain parties. As the Press Association reports, senior figures from Sinn Fein, the SDLP, Alliance and the Greens said Brussels must remain firm in demanding a permanent “backstop” arrangement which would keep Northern Ireland aligned with the EU.
At a cross-party press conference in London, Sinn Fein vice president Michelle O’Neill said:
The backstop needs to be permanent, the backstop is the only guarantee we have in this debacle, the only insurance policy we have throughout all of the Brexit mess.
Our message is very firm: there can be no backtracking from that position on the backstop that Theresa May and her government signed up to in December last year.
According to the BBC’s Nick Eardley, more than 20 Tory MPs have already signed an amendment to the finance bill saying the reduction in the maximum stake for fixed odds betting terminals (FOBT) from £100 to £2 should come into effect in April next year, not October as planned.
Amendments going down to Finance Bill tonight to force Government to introduce maximum £2 bet on FOBTs on 1 April next year. Hearing cross-party support, including twenty plus Tories.
— Nick Eardley (@nickeardleybbc) November 12, 2018
With a rebellion on that scale brewing, it is highly likely that the government is going to have to end up backing down on this issue.
In a related development, Tom Watson, the shadow culture secretary and deputy Labour leader, says a written answer he has had from Jeremy Wright, the culture secretary, shows that Wright met Philip Davies, the pro-gambling Tory MP, shortly before the decision to delay the reduction of the maximum stake was announced in the budget. (The new limit had been expected to come into force in April 2019, not October as announced in the government, although ministers reject claims the measure has been delayed, saying at one point April 2020 was the planned introduction date.)
BREAKING: Jeremy Wright met with two Tory MPs, who receive hospitality from - and lobby on behalf of - the gambling industry on Oct 10, just three weeks before his decision to delay FOBTs stake reduction. Also appears that he had not read Tracey Crouch's review. Thought not. pic.twitter.com/Eu19Qr921l
— Tom Watson (@tom_watson) November 12, 2018
As the Guardian reported earlier this month, Tracey Crouch resigned as sports minister because she was furious about Wright siding with Davies on this policy and not her.
Updated
Here is Downing Street on the FT story claiming that Michel Barnier, the EU’s chief Brexit negotiator, has told EU foreign ministers a deal is almost ready. (See 2.32pm and 3.27pm.)
Theresa May's official spokesman on reports of a deal: "I read some quotes attributed to Barnier by some anonymous minister . I have talked about taking things with a pinch of salt before - that applies here - I would apply a bucket of salt to this one. Negotiations are ongoing."
— Christopher Hope (@christopherhope) November 12, 2018
Labour to use humble address vote to try to force government to release Brexit legal advice
Labour has announced that it is going to use its opposition day debate tomorrow to stage a vote on a motion that would oblige the government to publish its Brexit legal advice. This is the “humble address” procedure, that was used successfully by Labour to get the government’s Brexit impact assessment.
The motion will say:
That an humble address be presented to Her Majesty, that she will be graciously pleased to give directions that the following papers be laid before parliament: any legal advice in full including that provided by the attorney general on the proposed withdrawal agreement on the terms of the UK’s departure from the European Union including the Northern Irish backstop and framework for a future relationship between the UK and the European Union.
Commenting on the move, Sir Keir Starmer, the shadow Brexit secretary, said:
It’s simply untenable for the government to put forward any Brexit deal to parliament without providing the legal advice on what’s been agreed.
At this critical stage, MPs can’t be kept in the dark nor can we risk parliament being bounced into a decision without having all of the facts available.
Ministers should accept this motion and allow MPs to have an informed debate about the UK’s future relationship with the EU after Brexit.
This is from the BBC’s Adam Fleming on the FT’s Barnier story. (See 2.32pm.)
Am being steered away from interpreting @MichelBarnier's remarks to EU27 ministers today as "deal done, take it or leave it" - "that's not the message he intended to send." EU officials have been saying for a few days now that the "architecture of the agreement" is stable.
— Adam Fleming (@adamfleming) November 12, 2018
Gordon Brown's speech and Q&A - Summary
Gordon Brown’s office has sent out an abridged text of the speech he gave to the Institute for Government on Brexit but - as is usual with Brown - it doesn’t really do justice to the one he delivered. He was talking off the cuff, only loosely quoting from the text released in advance, and the full speech was much longer, much more nuanced, much more interesting (and a bit funnier) than the beefed-up press release sent out by his office.
Another feature of Brown speeches is that sometimes they are almost too complicated for their own good. Although Brown was calling for a second referendum, he didn’t deliver a straightforward ‘we must remain’ message and he was at pains to stress the importance of listening to both sides of the remain/leave argument. He also implied that the second referendum he sees as inevitable might end up not being a remain/leave one, but a rejoin/stay out version.
Here are the main points.
- Brown said that some form of people’s royal commission should be set up to develop an alternative Brexit plan. This could operate like a citizen’s jury, he suggested.
We have to deal with the very real concerns raised in the referendum and since by the British people and not yet answered. We cannot reunite a divided country without talking to the country, getting outside the Westminster bubble, entering a dialogue with the regions and nations and engaging the people in an open, outward looking conversation about our future in a more systematic and constructive way than is happening right now.
I propose a new kind of royal commission - not the usual royal commission of the great and good to ‘take minutes and spend years’ but what I call a royal commission of the people, a platform that is designed to enable, encourage engage and empower voices and concerns over the way ahead.
It would enable us to hear views and opinions in all regions and nations and in all sectors and involving all stakeholders in industry.
It would encourage a national conversation by organising deliberative hearings around the country that listen to the concerns of the public about the causes and consequences of Brexit and their aspirations for the future and
It would engage us in a dialogue about the difficult issues from migration to sovereignty and our longterm economic future, empowering all voices to be heard.
Brown cited the citizens’ assembly in Ireland that helped to draft a new abortion law, subsequently approved in a referendum, as an example of what he had in mind.
But he did not say how long this would take, implying that either article 50 would have to be suspended to allow this to happen, or that the people’s royal commission could draw up plans for rejoining the EU after March.
- He said that there was a “strong chance” of the UK rejoining the EU if he left and that, if he were in power, he would be talking to the EU to maintain this as an option. He said:
If Britain has to leave the European Union, I still believe there is a strong chance of coming back. So I think the one thing we’ve got to tell, voices from Britain to our friends in Europe, is that this is not over, the door should be kept open, lines of communication should be kept open. I don’t want to sound defeatist by saying that we are going to lose, because I’m not saying that. But I’m saying if ... I believe that one of the issues would be what terms the European Union would be prepared to offer [if the UK wanted to rejoin], and I think that’s got to be thought through. And if I was in a position of authority at the moment I would be talking to the European Union exactly about what understanding we could have on these kind of issues.
- He said he thought there would be a second referendum. But he did not say when it might take place, implying that it could end up being a referendum to rejoin.
I have always said that I think there will be a second referendum. I believe that in the end the situation will have been seen to have changed since 2016 and that the people should in the end have the final say. But I also believe that we have got to find a far better way of listening and hearing the voices of people.
- He criticised the government for not using measures allowed under freedom of movement rules to control EU immigration. If the government were to use such powers, public opinion on Brexit might shift, he argued.
If we were able to do what other countries in Europe seem quite happy to do within freedom of movement, you could be still part of the single market and you could register jobs when they become vacant at local job centres - the Swiss require jobs in high unemployment areas to be registered at job centres, so in effect local people have have the first option of getting those jobs. When someone comes to the country in Germany, they are required to register as being there. When someone doesn’t get a job after nine months in Belgium, you are required to leave. When someone is in France and they are subject to the laws in France, you cannot be paid lower wages simply because the wages in the country you are coming from are lower. You’ve got to be paid French wages. Now, all these things could change the attitude that people have in this country to what they believe was a situation that was not properly controlled. But the government has not put these forward, and they could still do so.
- He criticised the government for failing to resolve what the UK’s longterm future relationship with the EU should be - and said, even if the UK left in March, this would remain undecided. He said:
Normally in a negotiation you set your longterm objectives and work out how to achieve them. But whatever the deal is and with or without a deal, the longterm questions about Britain’s future will remain unanswered and unresolved. Even with a deal our end-point - Canada or Norway - is unresolved. Our longterm relationship to the customs union is unresolved, our longterm relationship to the single market is unresolved and the scope to sign trade deals is unresolved.
We will have, at best, a short-term fix in the absence of an agreed end point - a short-term fix because the Cabinet cannot agree on an end point. Indeed the selling point of the short term fix to the hard Brexiteers will be that a hard Brexit is still possible as the end game.
At this point, as Brown delivered his speech, he quoted from the words Churchill used to criticise the Baldwin government over war planning in 1936. Churchill said the government was “decided only to be undecided, resolved to be irresolute, adamant for drift, solid for fluidity, all powerful to be impotent.” The same applied to Theresa May’s government, Brown said.
- He said the government’s failure to decide what sort of Brexit it wanted created four longterm problems. He said:
What’s more, the failure to agree and the prolonged uncertainty that arises, means ignoring the real longterm challenges - the four major threats for the future - longterm investment plans by companies put at risk; the union put at risk; British global influence in danger of reaching its lowest-ever ebb and Britain’s social cohesion in jeopardy because of our failure to face up to the issues raised in the Brexit vote.
- He said MPs should have the right to vote to instruct the government to return to Brussels to try for a better Brexit deal.
- He said Brexit could leave the country more divided than it was in the 1970s, 1980s or early 1990s. He said:
There is a further worry: If the next two years of negotiation involve a process as inward looking, divisive and partisan - as dominated and driven by internal Conservative politics as the past two years, we will become an even more divided country - more divided than in the 70’s during the three-day week, than in the 80’s during the miners’ strike and than in the early 90s because of poll tax.
Indeed we have to look back to the angry debates on the corn laws in the 1840s and on Ireland in the 1880s - but these were before the advent of a full democracy.
If the government did not change course, both sides would feel betrayed, he said:
I fear a sense of betrayal will increasingly take root on all sides. Millions of young people who want to remain, feeling betrayed that their future is being mortgaged by an older generation.
Remain voters feeling betrayed because the European referendum was won, in their view, on the basis of dishonest propaganda and in the view of the Electoral Commission by corrupt electoral practises.
Leave voters feeling that pledges made at the referendum are not being delivered; for example the promises of being better off, of more money for the NHS, of absolute freedom for the fishing industry and of how easy a clean break would be.
- He said he thought the Scottish government should be able to sign deals with the EU on devolved matters. He said:
I don’t see why the Scottish parliament shouldn’t be able to sign a treaty with the European matter on a devolved matter, not on non-devolved matters but on devolved matters. I don’t see why even if we’re outside the European Union that would be prevented.
- He quoted Shakespeare to make the case for Britain being internationalist - and he criticised the film Dunkirk for presenting an isolationist view of British history. (See 1.02pm.) Making the case for patriotic internationalism, Brown said:
If you go back to Shakespeare’s John of Gaunt, the soliloquy about “this sceptred isle” and the “moat defensive” free from foreign powers powers, he also says in that poem “renowned for deeds in countries far from home”, “dear for our reputation throughout the world” - these two views were even in that poem, written by Shakespeare.
Even with Shakespeare, and what was seen as a Brexiteer soliloquy, you could see that he understands that we’re an internationalist country, we’re outward looking because we’re a trading [country], the channel is not a moat, it’s a highway to the world. And these are the views we’ve got to get across.
UPDATE: I’ve corrected the reference to the Churchill quote, which was from a 1936 speech referring to the Baldwin government not, as I wrongly said earlier, from a 1937 speech referring to the Chamberlain government.
Updated
According to the Financial Times (paywall), Michel Barnier, the EU’s chief Brexit negotiator, told EU foreign ministers this morning that the main elements of an exit treaty deal are ready to present to the UK cabinet tomorrow. The FT says: “Barnier told ministers from the EU’s remaining 27 member states that ‘the parameters of a possible agreement are very largely defined’ but still require political endorsement.”
ITV’s Robert Peston has been interviewing Gordon Brown.
Gordon Brown just told me he thinks there will have to be another referendum on whether and how we Brexit - could be in months, could be two years away...
— Robert Peston (@Peston) November 12, 2018
That is three out of four living ex prime ministers - Brown, Blair, Major - who now say there should be another referendum. Where does the PM, @David_Cameron, who gave us the last one stand?
— Robert Peston (@Peston) November 12, 2018
The EU’s support for Ireland’s position in Brexit negotiations over the border with Northern Ireland is “stronger than ever”, the deputy prime minister Simon Coveney said after a bilateral with the EU’s chief Brexit negotiator, Michel Barnier. He said:
The support and solidarity of Michel Barnier and his negotiating team is stronger than it has ever been.
Clearly this is a very important week for Brexit negotiations. The two negotiating teams have really intensified their engagement and the support and solidarity is very very strong.
The issues aren’t new. There is still clearly work to do between the two negotiating teams I we need to give them time and space to finish that job and the sooner that can be done the better for everybody.
Earlier on Monday Coveney tweeted that he was still hopeful of a deal this week despite the continuing challenges Theresa May is facing.
Early start - on the way to Brussels for EU General Affairs Council + meeting with @MichelBarnier who continues to have our full support - negotiating teams have been working hard, let’s hope we can find a breakthrough on #Brexit this week....
— Simon Coveney (@simoncoveney) November 12, 2018
Brown says there is 'strong chance' of Britain rejoining the EU after Brexit
Q: What did you make of Jeremy Corbyn’s comment about it not being possible to stop Brexit?
Brown says Corbyn would be the first to say that the Labour conference decision is one he must honour. He says, when he was in government, Corbyn used to remind him that he was bound by conference decisions
Q: Wouldn’t a royal commission take years?
Brown says, if the UK does leave the EU, there will be “a strong chance of coming back”.
The door must be kept open to that, he says.
He says, if he were in government, he would be working on this. An issue to be considered would be the terms on which the UK could rejoin.
He says Emmanuel Macron and Angela Merkel do not want the UK to leave.
- Brown says there is a “strong chance” of Britain rejoining the EU after Brexit and that that option should be kept open.
And that’s it. The Q&A is over.
I will post a full summary soon.
Q: You sound as if you think we will leave the EU, but remain in a Norway-style relationship with the EU.
Brown says he is not here to make predictions.
The point he is making is that, if the UK does leave next year, the key issues will not be resolved, he says.
He says, if there is a meaningful vote in the Commons, all options should be open. That should include renegotiating the deal and extending article 50.
And if the UK does leave, there must be the option of returning, he says.
Q: During the referendum people understood the sovereignty issue.
Brown says his argument is that there is new evidence about how the European court of justice decides matters. He says the Lisbon treaty forces it to take national identity into account.
He says he does not accept the idea that being in the EU takes all sovereignty away from the British.
Q: Can you say more about your royal commission idea?
Brown says he is not proposing a conventional royal commission.
In Ireland there were deliberative assemblies before the change to abortion law, designed to achieve consensus on proposed changes to the law. Iceland used a similar procedure after the banking crash, he says.
He says when he was prime minister the government explored these ideas.
These techniques are worth looking at, he says.
He says, given that fewer people read newspapers - something he welcomes, he suggests, referring to the Sun - he says the government must find new ways of listening to the public.
Q: What do you mean by the idea that Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland could bypass Whitehall and have their own relationship with the EU?
Browns says there is no doubt that Scotland, in particular, wants it own relationship with the EU.
The government talks a lot about “our precious union”.
But it is less willing to honour devolution than in the past, he says.
He says he does not see why Scotland should not be able to sign treaties with the EU.
- Brown says Scotland should be able to sign treaties with the EU.
Brown says he thinks a second Scottish independence referendum is “unlikely at the moment”.
Q: If there was a second referendum, and remain won narrowly, what would happen then?
Brown says there is no public support for any of the options available at the moment.
People are looking for something else, he says.
He says he will not predict when a referendum will be, he says.
But there should be an open debate on these issues, he says.
And he says, under the Fixed-term Parliaments Act, elections do not happen easier. Governing parties are more likely to change their leader than call an election, he says.
Brown says there is a view, going back to Dunkirk, that Britain is at its best when it is alone. The film Dunkirk promoted this, he says. In the film, the French never got a look in.
He says there is an alternative view, which he shares, that Britain is at its best when it is working with other countries.
But that patriotic internationalism never got a look in during the referendum, he says.
Brown says there was no campaigning during the EU referendum in the industrial towns. People there feel they have not been listened to, he says. He says politicians need to communicate with them.
Q: What sort of new measures would you introduce on immigration?
Brown says the UK is proposing “point control” as a way of handling immigration after Brexit. People won’t think that amounts to real change.
But other EU countries impose measures despite free movement, he says. For example, jobs have to be advertised locally. Migrants can be required to register. Or they can be required to leave if they don’t find a job.
He says the UK government has not adopted measures like this, even though they are allowed under freedom of movement.
If these things were known in 2016, there would have been a “very different” debate in the referendum.
- Brown says EU referendum would have been “very different” if UK government had imposed migration measures allowed under free movement.
Brown calls for second referendum on Brexit
Gordon Brown has finished his speech at the Institute for Government now. I will post a summary in a bit.
First, though, I’ll cover the Q&A.
Q: So you think a second referendum will happen?
Yes, says Brown. But he says the important thing is the timing.
He says David Cameron never had a proper debate on immigration. But in the EU countries like Germany are bringing in policies like registration for migrant workers.
So things have changed, he says.
He says the British keep being told that they are powerless in relation to EU law. But the Lisbon treaty said national identity had to be taken into account in judgments.
He says he thinks Iain Duncan Smith blocked talk of plans for restrictions on EU workers when he was work and pensions secretary because he did not want compromise with the EU.
The people should have the final say, says Brown.
- Brown calls for second referendum on Brexit.
Q: And should that be Labour policy?
Brown says the Commons procedure committee will publish a report tomorrow.
He says MPs will be able to propose amendments.
There is nothing wrong with parliament saying to the government it must go back to Brussels to negotiate, he says.
He says the Irish did that all the time.
And article 50 could be extended, he says.
Updated
Gordon Brown calls for people's royal commission to draw up alternative Brexit plan
Gordon Brown, the former Labour prime minister, is giving a speech on Brexit at the Institute for Government. I will post a summary soon, but here are some early highlights.
Gordon Brown says long term brexit issues unresolved - are we Canada or Norway? We are facing only a 'short term' fix and cabinet cant decide beyond that. He calls for a Royal Commission Says people will be 'shocked' to know we may have years of talks ahead of us #ifgbrexit pic.twitter.com/jRugBHJ4jz
— iain watson (@iainjwatson) November 12, 2018
Gordon Brown says govt decision on #brexit is 'indecision' - govt rushed in to article 50 without a plan
— iain watson (@iainjwatson) November 12, 2018
.@OfficeGSBrown Gordon Brown says because cabinet and Tory party incapable of coalescing around a plan for Brexit UK’s long-term relationship with EU, this future should be determined by a glorified citizen’s jury. What do you think? pic.twitter.com/13MjtZPA8j
— Robert Peston (@Peston) November 12, 2018
Updated
Mordaunt suggests May cannot take cabinet for granted over Brexit deal
Here is the quote from Penny Mordaunt, the international development secretary, referred to earlier. Mordaunt voted leave in the referendum and, although she says she backs Theresa May, she has been reluctant to say in public that she specifically backs May’s Chequers plan. This morning Mordaunt said:
The important thing is that there’s two checks on this deal - there’s cabinet and there’s parliament. And so cabinet’s job is to put something to parliament that is going to deliver on the referendum result. We need to work together as a cabinet to do that. And I’m going to be supporting the prime minister to get a good deal for this country.
Mordaunt was careful to include a sentence expressing support for the PM, but the overall message is anything but loyal. She is saying Theresa May cannot take the cabinet for granted.
Lib dem peer Lord Lester faces suspension for three and a half years for sexual harassment
These are from my colleague Peter Walker.
Parliament latest: Lib Dem peer Lord Lester suspended from Lords till June 2022 over complaint he sexually harassed a woman.
— Peter Walker (@peterwalker99) November 12, 2018
This has to be agreed by the Lords, likely this week. If so it will be longest suspension in either Lords or Commons since WWII. Findings are from Lords Privileges and Conduct Committee.
— Peter Walker (@peterwalker99) November 12, 2018
Committee found that Lord Lester sexually harassed complainant, “offering her corrupt inducements to sleep with him”, during his duties in the Lords. The woman concerned is not identified.
— Peter Walker (@peterwalker99) November 12, 2018
Lord Lester could have been expelled from Lords, but offence took place ten years ago, when the power to expel peers did not speak exist, hence the long suspension.
— Peter Walker (@peterwalker99) November 12, 2018
Here is the report from the Lords privileges and conduct committee (pdf) about the case.
Britain has all but given up on a special Brexit summit at the end of November as there remain too many sticking points outstanding to complete the talks in the time originally hoped for.
UK and EU negotiators were talking until 2.45am last night, Downing Street said, but sources downplayed the prospect of any immediate breakthrough as the impasse on the Irish border backstop continues.
Negotiations will continue intensively this week, but unless there is dramatic progress by the end of Wednesday, there can be no European summit to sign off a draft deal this month. “There’s no breakthrough at the moment,” a Whitehall source said.
The absence of a breakthrough means that Tuesday’s scheduled cabinet meeting will not be the substantive discussion intended to sign off the UK’s Brexit negotiating position as had been expected. It will note developments and discuss no deal planning instead.
A Brexit deal could be signed off at the European Union’s scheduled summit in December, on the 13 and 14, which would leave little time to squeeze in a parliamentary vote to ratify the agreement before Christmas.
According to the BBC’s Adam Fleming, the text of the draft Brexit withdrawal agreement now runs to 500 pages.
I'm told that the #Brexit Withdrawal Agreement is now at least 5⃣0⃣0⃣pages long. Good luck if you have to print that out (and by that I mean me).
— Adam Fleming (@adamfleming) November 12, 2018
In Brussels they are briefing that the Brexit talks went on until 3am last night, my colleague Daniel Boffey tells me. But he adds: “They want us to know that it is not for want of effort that things aren’t going well.”
Penny Mordaunt, the international development secretary, said today that the cabinet would act as a potential “check” on the Brexit deal, the Sun’s Tom Newton Dunn reports.
Penny Mordaunt: "There are two checks on this deal. There is Cabinet, and there is Parliament". It's what we all know, but still a stunning public statement - PM vs her own Government.
— Tom Newton Dunn (@tnewtondunn) November 12, 2018
Newton Dunn also says the government is giving up hope on there being an emergency Brexit summit in November.
More: Tusk has told No10 that a deadline for a November summit is this Wednesday night. But it appears the Govt is beginning to give up hope for one. Whitehall source: "I wouldn't get your hopes up".
— Tom Newton Dunn (@tnewtondunn) November 12, 2018
So, the likelihood is now a December 13/14 summit, which pushes the Meaningful Vote into January. Will be very tight to pass all the ensuing Brexit deal legislation in less than 3 months, meaning Article 50 could have to be extended by a month or two.
— Tom Newton Dunn (@tnewtondunn) November 12, 2018
Updated
UK-EU negotiators were up until 2.45am last night, says No 10, as it insists progress being made
I’m just back from the Number 10 lobby briefing. And the best Brexit line was a single factual detail. British officials were up until 2.45am last night negotiation Brexit with their EU counterparts in Brussels, the prime minster’s spokesman said. He insisted that progress was being made towards a deal.
The spokesman implied that Olly Robbins, the PM’s most senior adviser on Brexit, was one of those burning the midnight oil, but he did not say so.
It is hard to know quite what to make of this. The spokesman gave us the anecdote (we don’t normally get process details like that at lobby) to show that the government is working hard to get a deal.
But the fact that they were up until almost 3am and still could not reach a deal does show quite how serious the deadlock is.
Starmer says May is bluffing when she says UK will leave with no deal if MPs voted down her plan
Sir Keir Starmer, the shadow Brexit secretary, told the BBC’s Victoria Derbyshire a few minutes ago that he thought Theresa May was bluffing when she said the UK would leave the EU with no deal if MPs voted against her plan. Starmer, a former director of public prosecutions, said he knew how important it was to UK security being involved in agencies like Eurojust. May, a former home secretary, knows this too, he argued. If the UK left with no deal, this cooperation would cease. He told the programme:
I don’t think, in my heart of hearts, that this prime minister would attempt to take us out without a deal. She has done a lot of work on things like counter terrorism and security information. I don’t think she would put that in jeopardy ... I think this talk of ‘We’ll leave in March without a deal’, I think it’s a bluff.
Starmer argued that, if MPs voted against May’s deal, the government would in practice have to come up with an alternative to a no deal Brexit.
I’m off to the lobby briefing now. I will post again after 11.30am.
And here is the story from my colleagues Daniel Boffey and Jennifer Rankin on the EU general affairs council.
German Europe minister says customs union backstop mustn't give UK 'unfair' advantage on standards
As she arrived for the EU’s general affairs council meeting this morning Nathalie Loiseau, the French Europe minister, said whether or not there would be a Brexit deal was up to the British. She told reporters:
The ball is in the British court. It is a question of a British political decision ...
I have no crystal ball unfortunately. We are determined, we are committed to find a good deal. We know that it is better than a no-deal.
She also said the EU would not agree to a backstop plan allowing the whole of the UK to stay in the customs union if the UK could withdraw unilaterally. She said:
If you have any sort of temporary arrangement, this needs to be a bilateral decision from the EU27 and the UK at the same time, and we have to know at that moment what sort of solution there is for the Irish border.
Michael Roth, the German Europe minister, told reporters as he arrived that the EU would need assurances that the UK would not undercut it on standards if it stayed in the customs union. He said:
A customs union is an option but we must be careful that it doesn’t lead to unfair relations between the EU27 and the UK, particularly in environmental, workplace and social standards. It must be a genuine backstop.
Roth also said he remained an “optimist” on the question of whether a deal would be reached, but said that “time is more than ripe for a sensible outcome”.
And Didier Reynders, the Belgan foreign ministers, told reporters on his way in that he hoped a deal would be possible before Christmas.
Asked if a special Brexit summit would be held in November, he said:
We are ready to do that but to organise a summit you need to have some progress.
If we are in the same situation as 10 days ago it is a nonsense to organise it this month. It will be maybe the case in December.
We have seen some movement but it seems to be not enough.
Justine Greening, the Conservative pro-European former education secretary, has just told the BBC’s Victoria Derbyshire that she is certain that there are more government ministers thinking of following Jo Johnson and resigning from the government because they cannot support Theresa May’s Brexit plan. But she would not be drawn on how many ministers there were in this category, saying she could not know for sure.
EU ministers reaffirm need for no deal planning as Barnier tells them deal not yet reached
Michel Barnier, the EU’s chief Brexit negotiator, told EU foreign ministers at the general affairs council meeting this morning that there is still no Brexit deal yet.
Here is the statement from the EU.
The commission’s chief Brexit negotiator, Michel Barnier, informed the EU27 ministers of the situation following negotiations with the UK over the last few weeks. Michel Barnier explained that intense negotiating efforts continue, but an agreement has not been reached yet. Some key issues remain under discussion, in particular a solution to avoid a hard border between Ireland and Northern Ireland.
During the meeting, ministers however also recalled the need to continue the work at all levels on preparations for every possible scenario.
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Tories claim Labour's policy on second referendum unclear after Starmer contradicts Corbyn
Here is my colleague Peter Walker’s story on Sir Keir Starmer contradicting Jeremy Corbyn and saying Brexit can be stopped.
And here is some reaction.
Pro-European Labour MPs have welcomed Starmer’s comment.
Good to see Keir Starmer reflecting Labour Party Policy and correcting the erroneous statements by Jeremy Corbyn https://t.co/B5g6lSlBh1
— Mike Gapes (@MikeGapes) November 12, 2018
Thanks @Keir_Starmer for again making crystal clear on @BBCr4today that Labour policy remains that all options are on the table including a #peoplesvote to avert Tory #BrexitShambles. All shadow cabinet needs to sing from same hymn sheet.
— Ben Bradshaw (@BenPBradshaw) November 12, 2018
But Brandon Lewis, the Conservative party chairman, claims Labour’s policy is now unclear.
Very odd interview with @Keir_Starmer on @BBCr4today where he is unable to reconcile his position with his own Leader. Still not sure if Labour have a policy or if they want a 2nd referendum.
— Brandon Lewis (@BrandonLewis) November 12, 2018
And Patrick O’Flynn, the Ukip MEP, says what Corbyn said was more consistent with Labour’s 2017 manifesto than what Starmer.
Think am right in saying that Corbyn’s Brexit position is more consistent with the prospectus Lab offered to voters last year than Starmer’s
— Patrick O'Flynn (@oflynnmep) November 12, 2018
Justine Greening says cutting tuition fees would be 'terrible plan' and 'bad for social mobility'
Turning away from Brexit for a moment, in her Today interview Justine Greening, the Conservative former education secretary, said she was strongly opposed to a reported government plan to cut tuition fees to £6,500. She said:
I think it’s a terrible plan. I think it’s bad for social mobility if you have a cap on numbers of students. We know that the ones that lose out are the ones from lower income families. I think it’s regressive; the people who will end up paying less in student fees will be those from the better off families who are more likely to go to university.
And I think it’s bad for British business because effectively it will not take money out of arts degrees. It will take money out of STEM [science, technology, engineering and maths] degrees; universities use that additional money from arts degrees that are cheaper in order to cross-subsidise engineering degrees. So this sense that this somehow in any way serves our country or social mobility for people in our country well I think is frankly for the birds.
The Times (paywall) first reported more than a week ago that a government review of higher education funding is likely to recommend cutting tuition fees to between £6,500 and £7,500 a year. In England students currently pay £9,250 a year. Ahead of the Greening interview, Today also said the BBC has confirmed that the Time story was correct.
A government proposal to cut tuition fees in England to £6,500 is a "terrible plan" and "regressive" says former Education Secretary @JustineGreening #r4today https://t.co/MQAnxm9yny pic.twitter.com/R8RaNZNCBl
— BBC Radio 4 Today (@BBCr4today) November 12, 2018
On his LBC phone-in Jacob Rees-Mogg, the chairman of the European Research Group, which represents around 50-odd Tory MPs pushing for a harder Brexit, has just said that Boris Johnson’s call for the cabinet to reject Theresa May’s Chequers plan (see 9.14am) is “absolutely spot on”. But Rees-Mogg said he did not accept that this would amount to a mutiny; it would just be proper cabinet government, he said, with the cabinet asserting its authority.
Boris Johnson says he hopes cabinet 'mutinies' over Brexit
Here are some of the other Brexit developments around this morning.
- Boris Johnson, the former foreign secretary, uses his Telegraph column (paywall) to renew his attack on Theresa May’s Brexit plan, saying that it should be “thrown out wholesale” and that he hopes the cabinet “mutinies”. He says the plans for the Irish backstop, and for the UK to remain aligned to EU rules for goods, amount to surrendering sovereignty. He says:
Under the shameful proposals now before cabinet it will be up to some joint UK/EU committee, or some “independent arbitration mechanism” to decide whether the UK – an ancient and sovereign nation – is finally allowed to come out, to run its own trade policy and set its own tariffs. And most incredibly of all, the whole process will be justiciable by the European court of justice – yes, that court that we were all told would cease to have any say in this country.
I want you to savour the full horror of this capitulation. Under article 50, the UK is at least able in theory to leave the EU. We do not have to consult any other authority. But under these proposals we are agreeing that the EU would have a say on whether this country is capable of making that final exit from the EU’s essential institution, the customs union. In other words, we are on the verge of signing up for something even worse than the current constitutional position. These are the terms that might be enforced on a colony.
On this point Johnson’s arguments are very similar to those cited by his pro-European brother, Jo, in the article he wrote on Friday announcing his resignation from the government because of his opposition to May’s Chequers plan.
- Justine Greening, the Conservative pro-European former education secretary, restated her opposition to the Chequers plan in an interview on the Today programme this morning. She said she could not see the plan getting through parliaments. Echoing the arguments used by both Johnsons (pro-leave Boris and pro-remain Jo), she said:
It’s the worst of all worlds. It leaves us with less influence, loss controls over the rules we have to follow and I have to say, if we were to accept it as a parliament, less credibility as a country in the rest of the world, because they would see that we would be prepared to go for a bad deal.
In his Telegraph article today Boris Johnson also describes the current plan as “the worst of both worlds”.
- John Whittingdale, the Brexiter former culture secretary, told the BBC’s Westminster Hour last night that Theresa May would have to go if parliament voted down her Brexit plan. He said:
I think if the prime minister’s Brexit plan doesn’t get through parliament I think it’s quite difficult to see how the prime minister can continue because she has staked her credibility. It’s very hard for her to turn round and say ‘OK, well my plan’s been torn up by Parliament, I’ll go away and think of another one.’
One cabinet minister said the group endorsed the proposal “with a very heavy heart”.
Trade secretary Liam Fox expressed strong doubts about elements of the plan for trading arrangements as they could harm the ability of the UK to do trade deals after Brexit.
Home secretary Sajid Javid, who backed remain, is understood to have had some similar views, describing the proposal for a common rule book with the EU for parts of the economy as “very worrying” and suggesting that there should be a review of the arrangements after five years.
The leader of the House of Lords, Baroness Evans, is understood to have agreed, telling her colleagues that she found it difficult to accept some aspects of the proposals, and might struggle to explain them in parliament.
Penny Mordaunt and Esther McVey - Brexiteers who have both been reluctant to give public support for the plan - are said to have expressed significant unhappiness and questioned whether Brexiteer MPs would be able to support such a deal in parliament.
Starmer contradicts Corbyn and says 'Brexit can be stopped'
Good morning. And welcome back to Brexit Groundhog Day. Yet again we start Monday with reports that Theresa May is facing a crunch week where key decisions about the Brexit withdrawal agreement will have to be made. Yet again we face the possibility that it might all prove impossible. The film analogy holds true up to a point, but it might not be a reliable guide to the future. Groundhog Day had a happy ending.
There is a lot of Brexit around this morning but the key slot on the Today programme went to Sir Keir Starmer, the shadow Brexit secretary. He was also on Sky.
At the end of last week Jeremy Corbyn alarmed Labour’s pro-Europeans by telling the German paper Der Spiegel that Brexit could not be stopped. Here is an extract from the interview, written up in English.
DER SPIEGEL: Not just Labour, but the whole country is extremely divided at the moment -- not least because of Brexit. If you could stop Brexit, would you?
Corbyn: We can’t stop it. The referendum took place. Article 50 has been triggered. What we can do is recognize the reasons why people voted Leave.
This morning Starmer insisted Corbyn was wrong. He told Sky News:
Brexit can be stopped. But the real question is what are the decisions we are going to face over the next few weeks and months?
Decision one is on the deal. Decision two is if the deal goes down should there be a general election and decision three is if there is no general election all options must be on the table including the option of a public vote.
That is the clear position. Jeremy is signed up to it. I’m signed up to that.
I will post more from his interviews shortly.
Here is the agenda for the day:
9am: Jacob Rees-Mogg, the Tory Brexiter and chair of the European Research Group, hosts his LBC phone-in.
11am: Downing Street lobby briefing.
12.15pm: Gordon Brown, the former Labour prime minister, gives a speech on Brexit at the Institute for Government.
2pm: Four pro-remain parties from Northern Ireland, Sinn Fein, the SDLP, the Alliance party and the Greens, hold a briefing in Westminster.
4pm: The EU holds a press conference after today’s general affairs council meeting.
As usual, I will also be covering breaking political news as it happens, as well as bringing you the best reaction, comment and analysis from the web. I plan to post a summary at lunchtime and another when I finish, at around 6pm.
Here is the Politico Europe round-up of this morning’s political news. And here is the PoliticsHome list of today’s top 10 must-reads.
If you want to follow me or contact me on Twitter, I’m on @AndrewSparrow.
I try to monitor the comments BTL but normally I find it impossible to read them all. If you have a direct question, do include “Andrew” in it somewhere and I’m more likely to find it. I do try to answer direct questions, although sometimes I miss them or don’t have time.
If you want to attract my attention quickly, it is probably better to use Twitter.
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