Coffee chain Starbucks Corporation (NASDAQ:SBUX) could show more signs of a turnaround — or hints that competition is gaining market share — when the company reports third-quarter financial results Tuesday after market close.
Check out Starbucks’ stock current price here.
Here are the earnings estimates, what analysts are saying and key items to watch.
Earnings Estimates: Analysts expect Starbucks to report third-quarter revenue of $9.29 billion, up from $9.11 billion in last year's third quarter, according to data from Benzinga Pro.
The company missed analyst estimates for revenue last quarter and missed estimates in seven of the past 10 quarters.
Analysts expect the company to post third-quarter earnings per share of 65 cents, down from 93 cents per share in last year's third quarter. The company missed analyst estimates last quarter and has missed estimates for earnings per share in five of the past 10 quarters.
What Analysts Are Saying: Starbucks rolling out the Green Apron staffing model in the U.S. could be a headwind to 2026 and 2027 earnings, TD Cowen analyst Andrew Charles said ahead of the earnings report.
The analyst maintained a Hold rating and price target of $90.
Charles said the Green Apron model could increase labor costs for Starbucks by 12% at its U.S. stores, with the rollout of the assistant store manager position at all U.S. company-owned stores adding to the headwinds in 2026.
While the model could increase labor costs, Charles also highlights the potential positive impact on sales. The analyst raised same-store sales estimates for 2026 through 2028 as a result.
See Also: Starbucks’ Green Apron Expansion To Boost Service — But Squeeze Earnings Through 2027
Here are other recent analyst ratings on Starbucks and their price targets:
- Bank of America: Maintained Buy rating, raised price target from $101 to $110
- Barclays: Maintained Overweight rating, lowered price target from $108 to $106
- Jefferies: Downgraded from Hold to Underperform rating with price target of $76
- Citigroup: Maintained Neutral rating, raised price target from $95 to $100
- Stifel: Maintained Buy rating, raised price target from $92 to $105
Key Items to Watch: A Placer.ai report highlights that Starbucks has had a consistent number of unique visitors in recent years. Overall visits have declined in recent months, but 2025 is also showing signs of a recovery from late 2024, according to the report.
The Placer.ai report shows January monthly visits up 3.1% and April visits up 0.9% on a year-over-year basis. The other months saw declines, but the year-over-year drops of 1.7% in March and 0.7% in May were less than late 2024.
The last four months of 2024 saw monthly visit declines of 6.0%, 4.7%, 1.6% and 2.9% for September through December, respectively.
Starbucks is putting an emphasis on loyal visits with its menu and moving away from short-term discounts, the report highlights. This strategy could take time, but the early results show that it could already be paying off based on monthly visits.
Placer.ai points to competition for Starbucks that includes drive-thru coffee chains, coffee houses and some consumers brewing their own coffee at home.
Investors and analysts will be looking to see if Starbucks highlights its strong loyal consumer base during the results and if any comments on trends for competition are shared.
The company's second quarter saw comparable store sales down 1% in North America, down 2% internationally and flat in China.
With new CEO Brian Niccol, Starbucks is undergoing transformations with plans like "Back to Starbucks" and "Green Apron."
Analysts remain cautious on the outcome of the plans and what impact they will have on 2025 and 2026 results.
Starbucks has been quiet on guidance since Niccol took over. Guidance for the rest of the fiscal year could create more volatility for shares after the earnings report.
SBUX Price Action: Starbucks stock is down 0.85% to $93.62 on Monday versus a 52-week trading range of $72.72 to $117.46. Starbucks stock is up 2.2% year-to-date in 2025.
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Photo: Ned Snowman via Shutterstock
