Presuming every scheduled 2021 theatrical offering hits its release date, here are my predictions for the biggest Hollywood hit for each of the next twelve months.
As I’ve done for every year since 2015, I’m celebrating the new year by doing an estimated guestimate as to what films will be the biggest, in terms of global grosses, for each month of the year. Needless to say, the version of this I did for 2020 didn’t exactly age well. Sonic the Hedgehog overperformed, Birds of Prey underperformed and, oh yeah, the entire theatrical industry came to standstill as a global pandemic swept the world.
A sizable number of top-tier theatrical releases moved from 2020 to 2021, to the point where some of this 2021 preview will be essentially a repeat of the 2020 that wasn’t. Covid-19 is still very much a factor and it’s possible that this year’s month-by-month rundown will be just as, well, “wrong,” but let’s be optimistic, shall we?
Oh, and this will be specifically Hollywood releases, even as I expect Chinese biggies like Detective Chinatown 3 (February 12, 2021) to rule until Hollywood gets back into the swing of things. And without further ado…
The Marksman (January 15, 2021)
This is the second Open Road-released Liam Neeson actioner to open theatrically just since theaters reopened. Honest Thief earned just $13 million domestic (from a $4 million opening), which is about what the likes of A Walk Among the Tombstones, Run All Night, The Commuter and Cold Pursuit earned in their opening weekends. The Marksman stars Neeson as a former marine working as a rancher along the Arizona-Mexican border who ends up protecting a young immigrant child from cartel baddies. With The 355 moved to January of 2021 and Denzel Washington’s The Little Things (starring Washington as a cop hunting a serial killer) doing the theater/HBO Max split thing, The Marksman may be this month’s biggest theatrical movie by default. Absent the HBO Max factor, I’d never bet against a Denzel Washington thriller.
Nobody (February 26, 2021)
Again, this whole “biggest Hollywood movie of the month” thing is by default, as I can’t imagine February’s biggest global grosser won’t be China’s Detective Chinatown 3, whose predecessor earned $575 million in 2018. I’m assuming Kay Cannon’s Cinderella (starring Camila Cabello) isn’t actually opening on February 5, since that’s 31 days away and we’ve yet to see so much as a teaser for the Sony release. Absent the HBO Max/theaters variable, I’d be more optimistic about Warner Bros.’ Judas and the Black Messiah (which is allegedly exactly the Oscar season “surprise” you’d expect it to be from the jolting teaser trailer) and Tom & Jerry (which, at a glance, looks better than the likes of Yogi Bear).
While Universal moved to of its higher profile early-2021 releases (Jessica Chastain’s The 355 and Jennifer Lopez’s Marry Me) to safer waters, Blumhouse’s Nobody is staying the course. Directed by Ilya Naishuller (Hardcore Harry) and written by Derek Kolstad (John Wick: Chapter 3), this one stars Bob Odenkirk as a seemingly ordinary suburban dad who declines to act during a home invasion. The situation leads to vigilante vengeance which in turn results in unexpected blowback. The trailer seems to suggest something closer to A History of Violence (with our protagonist being revealed as a violent man in a previous life) than Death Sentence (where Kevin Bacon’s pursuit of his son’s murderers has horrific consequences), but it certainly looks like polished grindhouse trash. I mean that as a compliment.
Morbius (March 19, 2021)
Absent its concurrent availability on Disney+ (where available) for a $30 upcharge, I’d presume Raya and the Last Dragon would be March’s biggest theatrical hit. It may still be but considering how little of an impact Mulan made theatrically last Fall, the advantage goes to Sony’s “only in theaters” entry in their, uh, Sony Pictures Universe of Marvel Characters.
Morbius stars Jared Leto as “the living vampire” in this mostly (?) stand-alone anti-hero origin story, as Sony hopes that their recent run of, well, the opposite of “classic Parker luck” continues. Come what may, this one will follow a string of well-liked and/or well-received hits, arriving after Spider-Man: Homecoming, Venom, Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse and Spider-Man: Far from Home. That doesn’t mean Morbius would be expected to earn, even in normal times, anywhere near what Venom did ($854 million global), as Venom is a far-more well-known character and Hardy is a more popular leading man. But presuming Morbius was budgeted closer to Venom ($90 million) than Far from Home ($165 million), it doesn’t need to break records to break even. Especially in these odd times, being “good” is more important to the brand than being a theatrical hit.
No Time to Die (April 2, 2021)
The 25th official James Bond movie has been the canary in the coal mine from the beginning of the pandemic. Cary Fukunaga’s action thriller was the first major movie to jump ship from its intended (April 10, 2020) release date, and its choice to ditch November 20, 2020 for April 2, 2021 was what quashed any hopes of a post-Tenet recovery for theaters. As of now, with the UK beginning another lockdown, all eyes are on the fifth-and-final Daniel Craig 007 movie, with hopes that overseas vaccination efforts are such that at least the flick can score outside of North America even if America lags behind its neighbors.
That’s a problem for MGM (which is distributing domestically), which is partially why they reportedly considered selling the film to Apple or Netflix earlier this year. I cannot say for certain that the film will keep its current release date, but if it does then it’ll be a sign that we’re approaching something resembling “recovery” outside of just China and Japan. April 2 is my birthday, and I can think of no better 41st birthday present than actually getting to write a “No Time to Die is kicking ass in theaters” box office post. Needless to say, under current circumstances, I’d still expect a global cume closer to Spectre ($880 million in 2015) or even Casino Royale ($599 million in 2006) than Skyfall ($1.108 billion in 2012).
F9 (May 28, 2021)
As Universal’s first super-duper tentpole (that isn’t an MGM flick), the ninth Fast & Furious is still the frontrunner to be 2021’s top global grosser, partially because it’s still the only Hollywood biggie outside the MCU likely to score huge in China. Fate of the Furious and Furious 7 both earned $392 million in China while even Hobbs & Shaw grossed $200 million in 2019. Oh, and it’s a hell of a test case for Universal’s “theaters to PVOD in 31 days for tentpole flicks” deal that was reached last year with AMC and Cinemark.
Justin Lin returns to the director’s chair in this “Vin Diesel versus Jon Cena and Charlize Theron” entry, which is notable for bringing Sung Kang’s Han Lue back from the dead. I guess that goes into the same “let people enjoy things as the world ends” late stage-capitalism box as the second season finale of The Mandalorian, but really it’s about morally validating additional Hobbs & Shaw movies, since Jason Statham’s Deckard Shaw no longer has Han’s blood on his hands.
With Jurassic World: Dominion shifted to June 2022, Universal’s Fast & Furious 9 is the frontrunner to win the year, even if any of the MCU movies could play “spoiler” in this regard. I’m also curious if news that there will be 11 F&F movies (as opposed to ten) may dilute some of the urgency of what was supposed to be the penultimate episode. But after two sequels that earned $1.263 billion in 2017 and $1.517 billion in 2015, F9 can take a real dive and still end up on top for the year.
Venom: Let There Be Carnage (June 25, 2021)
Will Andy Serkis’ Venom 2 get anywhere near the $216 million domestic/$854 million worldwide (including $262 million in China) gross of Tom Hardy’s first Venom? It could be a breakout sequel or a case where the curiosity was satiated on the first try. Audiences liked Venom more than critics, but even its biggest fans will admit that there was something aw-shucks ridiculous about the 1990’s-style comic book superhero movie throwback, and that Tom Hardy was either channeling Johnny Depp in Pirates of the Caribbean: Curse of the Black Pearl or Chris Klein in Street Fighter: The Legend of Chin-Li.
To what extent does this sequel lean into the absurdity at the risk of negating its own shaggy dog charm? Sony is certainly “going for it,” with Woody Harrelson as Carnage, Naomie Harris as Shriek and a rumored cameo from Tom Holland as Peter Parker/Spider-Man. I imagine the main draw will be watching Hardy and Harrelson compete to become one of the first actors nominated for an Oscar and a Razzie for the same performance.
Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings (July 9, 2021)
No, Destin Daniel Cretton’s martial arts fantasy flick won’t automatically break big in China just because it features Asian actors and filmmakers. Recall the sad fates of Mulan, Abominable and Crazy Rich Asians). However, if the MCU remains as big in China as it was before the pandemic, then the likes of Simu Liu, Awkwafina and Tony Chiu-Wai Leung (allegedly as the “real” Mandarin) in a mega-budget martial arts actioner, will just make the package that much sweeter.
Let’s hope that Kevin Feige has noticed what has broken big in China of late and offers something unapologetically fantastical and weird and not just “very respectful.” As a presumably stand-alone story, better to entrap folks who are showing up for demographic reasons first and for superhero/MCU fandom second, this one could be a major disrupter during a very crowded July. That goes double if it pulls a (relative) Black Panther.
Okay, so its competition is a bit stronger than Pacific Rim: Uprising, A Wrinkle in Time, Red Sparrow and Tomb Raider. We could see a scenario, especially if its as good as we all hope (Short Term 12 is a modern classic), where Shang-Chi sucks a disproportionate amount of oxygen out of the marketplace. That may be a pickle for Paramount’s Top Gun: Maverick, Warner Bros.’ Space Jam: A New Legacy and Disney’s own Jungle Cruise.
Or maybe I’m overthinking it and Shang-Chi will perform like Ant-Man and the Wasp ($620 million) while Minions: The Rise of Gru quietly coasts to $1 billion.
The Suicide Squad (August 5, 2021)
Opening five years after the critically-panned but decently-received David Ayer flick ($330 million from a $130 million debut despite a 67% second-weekend drop), this sequel will be concerned about being a “folks were only curious the first time” installment, or a Tomb Raider Trap sequel (whereby a superior sequel to a successful but disliked original bombs because folks were once bitten and twice shy).
This one will have to lean into whether or not audience care about the mere idea of a Suicide Squad movie. It won’t have high-profile cameos from Batman and the Joker, will be the third go-around for Margot Robbie’s Harley Quinn and won’t be a Will Smith actioner comedy. It’s entirely possible that Nia DaCosta and Jordan Peele’s buzzy Candyman sequel (August 27) spars with The Suicide Squad for domestic dominance.
Still, nabbing this month’s global crown should be a cinch even if it pulls a King of the Monsters. Besides, -27% from $745 million global is still $543 million. Heck, even -51% (Secret Life of Pets 2) gets it to $366 million, which would be tied with Shazam! and okay if the R-rated movie doesn’t cost anywhere near Ayer’s $175 million PG-13 installment.
Death on the Nile (September 17, 2021)
While DreamWorks and Universal’s The Boss Baby grossed $528 million in 2017, Alec Baldwin playing a “grown-up” baby (albeit not a monster) had a “for adults too” appeal in the first months of Donald Trump’s presidency. Family Business risks being another example of a four-quadrant animated hit that spawns a “just for kids” sequel.
Kenneth Branagh’s Death on the Nile may well drop from Murder on the Orient Express’ $355 million global gross. However, it stands to reason that the same audiences that showed up for that 2017 whodunnit will come for the same tricks (a murder among famous actors in a glossy locale) and treats (uh, a murder among famous actors in a glossy locale).
This time around, Kenneth Branagh directs himself as Hercule Poirot as an apparent love triangle results in murder. Among the suspects (or victims, no spoilers) are Gal Gadot, Armie Hammer, Letitia Wright, Emma Mackey, Annette Bening, Russell Brand and Jodie Comer. That Disney pushed this 20th Century release way into the future implies they’d like to have at least one non-Marvel/Avatar Fox franchise on the books.
Dune (October 1, 2021)
I don’t think that Denis Villeneuve’s big-budget ($165 million!) adaptation of Frank Hebert’s sci-fi novel is going to be the global super-smash that much of Film Twitter presumes it destined to be. The best shot it had for breaking big was in its original (pre-pandemic) December 18, 2020 release slot, where Warner Bros. absolutely planned to pitch it as last year’s Star Wars/Avatar/Lord of the Rings.
However, even a performance like Blade Runner 2049 ($92 million domestic and $261 million worldwide, but on a $155 million budget) would make it, by default the biggest movie of October. Yes, I’m expecting a modest (but not perilous) dip for Halloween Kills which earned $159 million domestic (from a $77 million debut) and $256 million worldwide.
Nonetheless, the first Dune trailer did it right, selling the hero’s journey of its protagonist and the film’s all-star cast (Timothée Chalamet, Zendaya, Rebecca Ferguson, Jason Momoa, Oscar Isaac, Dave Bautista, etc.) over the mere idea of larger-than-life big-screen spectacle or IP interest. I’ll happily eat crow if this pulls even Alita: Battle Angel ($405 million)-level grosses, with or without HBO Max getting in the way.
Mission: Impossible 7 (November 19, 2021)
Tom Cruise’s Mission: Impossible series has only become more popular and more comparatively acclaimed over the last few installments, borrowing the lessons of the Fast & Furious films (a stricter continuity and an ensemble cast) to become more than just the “Tom Cruise does action” franchise. Fallout earned $791 million worldwide in 2018, a record for Cruise and 15% higher than Ghost Protocol ($694 million in 2011) Rogue Nation ($682 million in 2015). That Christopher McQuarrie is again helming the next two (and allegedly final) chapters after two well-received installments (Rogue Nation and Fallout) has turned him into the David Yates of the M: I series.
With oodles of audience goodwill and a killer cast of newbies and franchise vets (Ferguson, Angela Bassett, Hayley Atwell, Simon Pegg, Ving Rhames, Pom Klementieff, Nicholas Hoult, etc.), well, if Spectre can earn $880 million in this release slot in 2015, I’d argue (in ideal circumstances) that M:I 7 would become Tom Cruise’s first $800 million-grosser. Marvel’s Eternals, which was supposed to open last November, will absolutely be a hit, but only one has Henry Czerny returning as Eugene Kittridge. Besting an MCU movie is indeed difficult, but that should be a walk in the park for Ethan and friends.
Spider-Man 3 (December 17, 2021)
The year-end holiday season is going to be as crowded as it would be any other year, with Steven Spielberg’s “delayed by a year” West Side Story facing off against Warner Bros.’ The Matrix 4, Universal’s Sing 2 and Sony/Disney’s Spider-Man 3 (or whatever it ends up being called. Offhand, I’d argue that the Marvel Peter Parker sequel is going to be this Christmas’ Star Wars ($1.073-$1.333 billion) while WB’s Keanu Reeves sequel is aiming to be this Christmas’ Jumanji ($800-$962 million), but either movie would be thrilled with either result.
But the current advantage goes to the Sony threequel, as it’ll be banking on goodwill from Homecoming, Far from Home and Into the Spider-Verse, along with a narrative that seemingly plunges into the multi-verse with cameos from various villains and heroes from the Sam Raimi and Marc Webb-helmed Spider-Man franchises. Depending on if Disney and Sony play nice, this could be Tom Holland’s last appearance in an MCU movie, so I’m curious if A) that remotely ends up being the case and B) Marvel leans into a “series finale” aspect to the MCU’s Peter Parker passion play.
Epilogue:
As always, I generally go into the new year hoping that some of these will be wrong, and that there will be some overperforming surprises or (for the sake of analysis) “surprise” misses to shake things up. This year has the added wrinkle of us not knowing if any of the big movies set for 2021, save for maybe the Warner Bros. slate (thanks to the HBO Max arrangement) will actually keep their theatrical release dates as the world tries to use the recently available vaccines to bring the Coronavirus pandemic to an end.
Can movie theaters and HBO Max coexist? Will Fast & Furious and the MCU continue to dominate in China compared to other Hollywood franchises? Will Matrix 4 and Ghostbusters: Afterlife be (relatively speaking) The Force Awakens and Creed or Terminator: Dark Fate and Independence Day: Resurgence? Will the three biggest studios, Disney, Universal and Warner Bros., still care about movie theaters by the end of 2021, or will Disney+, Peacock and HBO Max become so dominant (and shareholder-friendly) that theaters become a glorified afterthought? As my favorite cable news pundit likes to say, “watch this space.”
