SNP figures believe Reform UK will finish second in a key upcoming by-election, The National has been told.
The ascendancy of Nigel Farage’s party has become one of the defining features of the battle for Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse.
One SNP MSP told this paper they expected Reform to come second place to their party while another insider said that Farage’s troops had taken “wholesale” the support which used to go to the Tories in the South Lanarkshire seat.
An MSP said: “I think they’ll come second, the way things are looking, but I’d be surprised if they came first.”
But they insisted there was a hard “ceiling” on Reform’s support, adding: “There’s a lot of people who would never vote Reform.
“A lot of folk would run a million miles from them, for good reason.”
They argued that Labour were suffering more from Reform’s rise and pointed to a recent council by-election in Clydebank, where Farage’s candidate came 149 votes ahead of the Labour candidate.
But they added: “Our vote will not be as high as it was in 2021 but we’ve got a decent floor there.
“Turnout’s a factor as well. Folk are scunnered with everybody.”
Another insider said: “Reform have adopted the Tory vote wholesale.
“As a three-way marginal, it’s more about the balance of votes than it is about the total. You really rely on second and third place being split enough to get the first person over the line.”
They said it would be a “mistake” for the party to take any of its support in the seat “for granted”, adding that the party would need to run a tight “get out the vote” operation on polling day to buoy up its numbers.
Speculation is also rife as to exactly where and when Farage will come to the constituency. The only confirmed detail is that the Reform UK leader will visit next week but a time and location are unconfirmed.
An SNP source said: “I’ve heard that he’s going to Larkhall. What does that tell you? That he’s playing to his core vote but not anything beyond that.”
But the converse, where Farage appears in a part of the constituency where he is doing less well, will make the Reform campaign appear “more confident”, the source added.
