Six points with David Dorey

Three weeks into the season and there are only three undefeated teams left – Dolphins, 49ers, and Eagles. We just saw a 70-point effort by the Dolphins that said as much about the Dolphins defense as the Miami offense. After the first two weeks when we lost several players to short or long-term injuries, Week 3 wasn’t nearly as bad.

The lack of two-a-day practices and reduced preseason games send the players into the season still needing to get into game shape. After the first couple of weeks, the injuries should slow down. But any player can but hurt on any play. We’ve already seen why you draft the backup to your stud player, and why they are the No. 2 player – they aren’t nearly as good as the starter.

There is usually plenty of weirdness in performances in the way of inconsistency. That can extend to a single player or an entire team for the week. By mid-season it all gets more predictable, other than the depth chart shifting qualities of continuing injuries.

Here’s six things of note heading into the weekend.

1. Rushing touchdowns are up – Comparing this season to the first three weeks of 2022, and there was amazing consistency in most statistical categories for the four fantasy football positions of note. One of the notable changes was an increase in rushing touchdowns. Quarterbacks rose from 15 to 20, and running backs went from 51 to 60. Not a huge difference, but an interesting one. Passing stats tend to decrease later in the year. It begs the question – are running backs going to be a bigger help later in the year than usual?
2. Receiving touchdowns are down – Again, there wasn’t a huge difference but enough of one to notice. Running backs (18 to 15), tight ends (30 to 25), and wide receivers (96 to 88). It correlates to teams using running backs to rush in more touchdowns. The first month of any season is when the highest passing stats are recorded with the best weather and defense still trying to catch up with the offenses. The only notable yardage changes was with tight ends falling from 10.4 to only 9.1 yards per catch.
3. RB Alvin Kamara – The Saints starting running back is done with his suspension and joins the Saints just in time for Derek Carr to miss time with a shoulder injury. The Saints O-line is below average and no Saints running back has gained more than 45 yards in any game. The expectation was that Kamara would see his role as a receiver increase this season, but there were only six completions to the position so far. The Saints are 2-1 and have to compensate for losing Derek Carr at least this week. Jamaal Williams is on injured reserve and Kendre Miller (9-34) wasn’t effective in his debut last week. The Saints need Kamara to assume a heavy role.
4. WR Joshua Palmer and Quentin Johnston – The plan was to bring Quentin Johnston along slowly while Keenan Allen and Mike Williams continued to be the primary receivers. To no surprise, injury hanged that when Williams tore his ACL and is lost for the season. Josh Palmer caught four passes for 66 yards and a score in Minnesota last week. His role will likely increase but he remains the flanker. Johnston replaces Williams as the split end. Palmer’s position does not change. The Chargers passing offense will produce more than just one fantasy option, so this week is the first time we get to see what Johnston will do as a starter for the first time. He was the second wideout drafted this year, and his development gets accelerated starting this week.
5. RB Alexander Mattison and Cam Akers – The Vikings acquired Cam Akers for minimal cost and he helps replace Kene Nwangwu who is on IR and they released Myles Gaskin to make the room. HC Kevin O’Connell said he was excited to get Akers. Mattison started the year against the Buccaneers and Eagles – both solid run defenses. But he ran for 93 yards on 20 carries last week versus the Chargers. And Week 4 is in Carolina going against the No. 29 defense versus running backs. Mattison should look good again, but Akers may as well with the soft matchup. A second solid performance by Mattison will help him to hold onto his workload.
6. QB Bryce Young – The rookie missed last week with an ankle injury, and Andy Dalton threw for 361 yards and two touchdowns in their loss in Seattle. That’s double what Young has done in his first two starts versus the Falcons and Saints who both have above-average defenses. Young is expected to return, and he’ll face the visiting Vikings and their No. 30 ranked pass defense. This is one of his lightest matchups of the year and we just saw Adam Thielen catch 11 passes for 145 yards.  Young needs to do better than the 153 yards and one score as his current best game.

About last night…

Lions 34, Packers 20

This was all about the Lions who led 27-3 at the half before the Packers woke up and managed to make it look like it was much more competitive that it really was. The Packers had no answer for David Montgomery (32-121, 3 TD) and he added two catches for 20 more yards. Jahmyr Gibbs was left with only eight runs for 40 yards and four catches for 11 yards. The Lions were content to run Montgomery even though he averaged 3.8 yards as opposed to Gibbs’ 5.0 yards per carry. Jared Goff only passed for 210 yards and one score to Amon-Ra St. Brown (5-56, TD). Josh Reynolds (3-69) and Sam LaPorta (4-56) were the only other receivers of any note. But this game was mostly just running Montgomery.

Jordan Love threw for 246 yards and one score with two interceptions  and was mostly ineffective in moving the offense. Aaron Jones (5-18) and AJ Dillon (5-11) never had a chance to do much and Jones return from injury only added one catch for a net four-yard loss. Christian Watson (2-25, TD) caught the lone passing touchdown while wide open in the endzone but most of the passes went to Romeo Doubs (9-95) and Jayden Reed (3-55).  Love only completed 6-of-13 passes for 50 yards and one interception by halftime.

There’s no denying that the Lions are the new sheriff in the NFC North.