How important is Simon Cowell to the X Factor? Analysts at Nomura have been trying to find out.
Amid suggestions that Cowell may be planning to quit the live shows, the brokers have attempted to estimate his value to the show, and to ITV in general.
It was previously understood that under the terms of a three-year deal ITV has signed for the show that Simon Cowell would appear in the live shows towards the end of the series. Now the Daily Mail reports he may only appear in the final show. ITV will not confirm this. While, if correct, this is not a good news story given his importance to the programme, an analysis of the audience performance of the current series of American Idol (which he also left after several years) shows that it has not suffered as much as had been expected from his absence. So far, the American Idol audience is down 12% year-on-year on average in the 18-49 demographic vs prior expectations of being down 20% to 25%. It is also not thought to be the case that revenue has been hurt by Simon Cowell's leaving.
Who comes in in his place could prove crucial, they add:
On American Idol, Steve Tyler from Aerosmith and Jennifer Lopez have joined. It remains to be seen who joins Louis Walsh and Dannii Minogue on the UK X-Factor.
Shares in the broadcaster were down this morning - falling just under 1% to reach 74.6p. It is facing different headwinds too, however, including the weakness in the UK retail market on which it relies for a significant amount of its advertising revenue.
