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Dan Gartland

SI:AM | Tigers’ Recent Skid Makes Tarik Skubal Trade More Likely

Good morning, I’m Dan Gartland. I can’t believe this is how the Yankees gave up the tying run to the White Sox in the bottom of the 11th inning. (They went on to lose in the 12th.)

In today’s SI:AM:
Potential Skubal deals
⛏️ Breer’s notes from Niners camp
🦆 Why Dante Moore went back to school

If you’re reading this on SI.com, click here to subscribe and receive SI:AM directly in your inbox each morning.

Skubal’s Detroit sendoff

More than 34,000 fans packed Comerica Park in Detroit yesterday afternoon—the Tigers’ biggest crowd for a mid-week afternoon game this season—and they all came to see one man: Tarik Skubal.

Skubal is undoubtedly the top player available on the trade market as Monday’s deadline looms. The back-to-back Cy Young winner is set to become a free agent at the end of the season and has been the subject of trade rumors since the offseason. But until recently, there was some doubt as to whether the Tigers would actually move their ace before the deadline. After all, Detroit plays in the consistently mediocre AL Central, where even a .500 team is never all that far from the playoff hunt. Now, though, with Detroit’s record sitting at 51–58, it seems more likely that Skubal will be wearing a different uniform by the end of next week. ESPN’s Jeff Passan said on SportsCenter last night that Skubal “will be traded.”

Skubal’s start yesterday afternoon against the Orioles was his last before the deadline. So when he was pulled from the game in the seventh inning after allowing an RBI single, it was an opportunity for the Detroit fans to say goodbye with a standing ovation.

“There’s a lot of stuff going on around me that I have no control [over],” Skubal said. “I try to be pretty present all the time. When the fans get on their feet like that and give you a pretty good ovation, it’s special. It’ll never not be special, and it’s something I’ve always appreciated. Hopefully they feel the same way. Hopefully they feel like I’ve given everything to the team, the city, because I truly have.”

The Tigers were leading Baltimore 7–1 when Skubal exited, and the Orioles ended up winning a wacky one, 10–9, in extra innings. The loss dropped Detroit six games behind the White Sox in the Central and 4 ½ games behind the AL’s final wild-card spot. Fangraphs puts the Tigers’ chances of making the playoffs at 24.9%—not remote, but not high enough to pass up the haul of prospects that they’ll receive in exchange for Skubal. It’s also a significant drop from where they were three weeks ago.

Between June 29 and July 10, the Tigers won nine of their 10 games. They were still below .500 at 44–50, but they were 4 ½ games out of first place in the division. Their Fangraphs playoff odds sat at 39.3%. If they had continued that hot streak, they might have turned themselves into a strong enough playoff contender that they’d want to hang onto Skubal. Instead, they’ve lost four of their last five, pushing themselves farther to the fringes of playoff contention.

The Tigers’ loss will be one very fortunate team’s gain. Other pitchers in the AL have had better results than Skubal this season, but he’s still one of the game’s most dominant pitchers and has been nearly as effective this year as he was in his two Cy Young seasons. He has a 2.79 ERA and 0.910 WHIP, compared to a 2.30 ERA and 0.906 WHIP in his previous two seasons combined. He’s exactly the kind of pitcher who can make a real difference down the stretch for a team in the playoff hunt, and will be capable of swinging a postseason series if his new team makes it to the playoffs. Whichever team acquires him will be hoping he can do for them what CC Sabathia did for the Brewers as a midseason acquisition in 2008.

In fact, the Brewers may be looking for a repeat of that scenario. Milwaukee is among the rumored favorites to land Skubal as it looks to add starting pitching depth alongside Jacob Misiorowski. (The Brewers have also been linked to Mets starter Freddy Peralta, who they traded to New York in January.) Other teams said to be contenders to land Skubal include the Yankees, Rays, Braves and Dodgers. Passan reported that people across the league view the Dodgers as the favorites, but the bidding will start to heat up in the next few days as the deadline approaches.

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Maxx Crosby at training camp
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The top five…

… things I saw last night:
5. An excellent finish for FC Cincinnati’s Evander in the MLS All-Star Game.
4. Pete Crow-Armstrong’s go-ahead homer for the Cubs in the top of the 10th inning against the Cardinals.
3. Jordan Walker’s hustle to score the winning run from first base and give the Cardinals the walk-off win.
2. An excellent leaping catch by Dodgers outfielder Teoscar Hernández. He’s generally one of the worst defensive outfielders in the majors, but that one was a beauty.
1. An outrageous bicycle kick goal by Lucas Meek of the Greenville Triumph.

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