The September Fed meeting kicks off this Tuesday, September 16, and concludes on Wednesday, September 17, with the central bank's latest policy decision.
Following a recent string of weaker-than-expected jobs data, the central bank is widely expected to resume rate cuts this time around – the question is by how much.
Wall Street will also be tuned into the Fed's release of the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), or "dot plot," which will show where it expects the federal funds rate to be at the end of this year.
And Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's press conference could also be a lively event – especially as the Trump administration takes an increasingly combative stance toward committee members.
The Kiplinger team is reporting live on the September Fed meeting, bringing you the news and our expert analysis of what it could mean for the economy. Scroll for the latest updates.
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President Trump's tariff policies are having a moderate impact on inflation
The August Consumer Price Index report showed that President Donald Trump's tariff policies continue to have a moderate impact on price pressures, but the Federal Reserve is still expected to lower the federal funds rate when it meets next week.
According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, headline CPI was up 0.4% month over month in August, higher than the 0.2% rise seen in July and the 0.3% increase economists expected.
The CPI was 2.9% higher year over year, a quicker pace than the month prior and the largest annual increase since January. Still, the results arrived in line with estimates.
Core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices and is seen as a better measure of underlying inflation trends, was up 0.3% month over month and 3.1% year over year. Both figures matched what was seen in July and were on par with economists' forecasts.
"Despite August's small upside surprise, the reality is that consumer price changes have continued to surprise to the downside (relative to economists' expectations)," says William Blair macro analyst Richard de Chazal, CFA. "We are also only seeing limited pass-through from the tariffs."
Chazal adds that "companies are absorbing some of the costs, as well as passing them further along the supply chains, before they reach the end consumer." So while consumer inflation expectations are higher than the Fed would like, the central bank is more focused on a weakening labor market than a sustained inflation surge, he notes.
- Karee Venema
Related: Hot August CPI Report Doesn't Shift the Rate-Cut Needle: What the Experts Say
A weakening labor market is worrying the Fed
A number of economic reports has the Federal Reserve concerned about the labor market.
Most recently, Thursday's release of weekly jobless claims, which climbed by 27,000 in the week ending September 6, to a seasonally adjusted 263,000. This is the highest level since October 2021.
Bill Adams, chief economist at Comerica Bank, says this particular initial claims update "should be taken with a larger-than-usual grain of salt" given the volatile nature of the data and the fact that the latest update coincided with the Labor Day holiday and the start of the school year.
"Even so," he notes, "after the downward revisions to payrolls announced earlier this week and the weak jobs report for August last week, the job market is looking the wobbliest since the pandemic."
As for that August jobs report, the Labor Department recently said that nonfarm payrolls rose by 22,000 in August, missing economists' estimate for 75,000 new jobs. Figures for June were revised down by 27,000, from adding 14,000 to losing 13,000, while July job growth was upwardly revised by 6,000 (from 73,000 to 79,000 additions).
With these revisions, the U.S. added 21,000 fewer jobs in June and July than previously reported.
The unemployment rate, which is calculated from a separate survey, ticked up to 4.3% from 4.2%.
The data "underlines the growing downside risks to the labor market," says Simon Dangoor, head of Fixed Income Macro Strategies at Goldman Sachs Asset Management. "Hiring is running close to stall speed, and the breadth of jobs gains remains poor."
Dangoor adds that while slowing supply growth – due in part to reduced immigration – "is mitigating upward pressure on the unemployment rate, the Fed is acutely aware that a low-demand, low-supply equilibrium is fragile and vulnerable to deterioration."
- Karee Venema
Fed meeting schedule for 2025
The next Fed meeting, which runs from September 17 to 18, marks the sixth gathering of 2025. That means there are two more to go after that.
"The committee meets eight times a year, or about once every six weeks," writes Kiplinger contributor Dan Burrows in his feature, "When Is the Next Fed Meeting?".
The Federal Open Market Committee "is required to meet at least four times a year and may convene additional meetings if necessary," Burrows adds, noting that "the convention of meeting eight times per year dates back to the market stresses of 1981."
Fed meetings last two days and wrap up with the release of a policy decision at 2 pm Eastern Standard Time. This is typically followed by the Fed chair's press conference at 2:30 pm.
Here is the full Fed meeting schedule for 2025:
January 28 to 29
March 18 to 19
May 6 to 7
June 17 to 18
July 29 to 30
September 16 to 17
October 28 to 29
December 9 to 10
Some good news on the inflation front?
This week also brought an encouraging reading on wholesale inflation. Ahead of Wednesday's open, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said the Producer Price Index (PPI), which measures what businesses are paying suppliers for goods, fell 0.1% from July to August – coming in below economists' estimates for a 0.3% rise. Year over year, PPI was up 2.6%.
"The better-than-expected and relatively benign producer price report is both good news and bad news," says Scott Helfstein, head of investment strategy at Global X. "On the positive side, tariffs are not having a drastic impact on company supply chains in aggregate. Alternatively, the slowing in producer inflation could also signal a softening economy."
He goes on to say that inflationary pressures are not impacting producers right now and input costs appear to be contained. And the areas that did see increases in goods pricing were tied to the consumer staples sector, including food, tobacco and certain electronics segments.
"There were a few catalysts for higher prices in services with transportation costs and apparel being notable standouts," Helfstein says.
While he notes that the Fed is likely to take notice of the data, it will not shift the odds for a rate cut next week.
- Karee Venema
Fed rate cut incoming
Weak job gains during July and August, plus a forthcoming revision that lowers employment numbers going back to April of last year, will change the Fed's default position from one of standing pat to one of cutting short-term interest rates a quarter point at a time, starting with next week's policy meeting on September 17.
Inflation is still higher than the Fed would like, but Chair Powell has emphasized that the Fed has a dual mandate from Congress: not just to maintain low inflation, but a good economy as well. At the moment, it looks like the latter has become a greater concern than the former, and thus is the priority.
- David Payne
The smartest places to keep your cash when rates drop
The Kiplinger personal finance team is of course always following trends in savings vehicles, looking for opportunities and strategies for our readers. With an expected rate cut after months of stasis, this is a key time to get your cash in order. Even if you're not actively saving up, chances are you have spare funds to store that you don't necessarily want to put into the stock market, whether it's because you're holding it for a house project, vacation or emergency fund, or just don't like risk in your portfolio.
Personal finance writer Sean Jackson has been beating the drum for CDs in the lead-up to this September Fed meeting. With a CD, you lock in a rate for its entire lifetime, meaning that even if savings rates drop after the meeting, your CD rate will remain the same. In this article, he shares the best CDs he's found this week — as well as his advice on where not to put your cash.
Read more: The Smartest Places to Keep Your Cash If Rates Drop in 2025
- Alexandra Svokos, digital managing editor
Miran could be confirmed to the Fed board as soon as Monday
The Senate could vote to add Stephen Miran, a White House economic adviser, to the Federal Reserve's Board of Governors as soon as Monday, according to some media reports.
President Trump tapped Miran to fill the seat vacated by Adriana Kugler, who unexpectedly resigned last month.
By a vote of 13-11 along party lines, the Senate Banking Committee on Wednesday advanced Miran's nomination to the Senate floor. Republicans are rushing to get Miran confirmed ahead of the start of the Fed's September meeting.
If confirmed, Miran will serve out the remainder of Kugler's term, which is set to expire on January 31, 2026.
- Karee Venema
How well do you know the Fed?
Fed meetings have become key events on Wall Street after inflation hit a pandemic-induced 40-year peak in 2022 – which forced the central bank into an aggressive rate-hiking campaign that lifted the federal funds rate to its highest level in more than two decades.
But how well do you know the Fed?
With the next Fed meeting on deck, we decided to test your basic knowledge of the Federal Reserve and how its actions impact you and your money.
Quiz: How Well Do You Know the Fed?
Keep an eye on Powell's presser and the FOMC's quarterly forecasts
Looking beyond the FOMC's September 17 policy announcement, Chair Powell's post-meeting press conference and the accompanying new policy committee forecasts may give clues as to whether the members consider the labor market slowdown to be the result of a weakening economy or caused more by immigration tightening and deportations. FOMC members would be more likely to cut more frequently if it were a result of a weakening economy.
It will also be interesting to see whether members consider the higher inflation as temporary, linked to tariffs, or in danger of becoming more sticky as consumer, worker and business expectations shift. Members would also be more likely to cut if they feel it's temporary.
- David Payne
Consumer sentiment slips in September
The University of Michigan on Friday said its Consumer Sentiment Index fell 4.8% from August to September, to 55.4. The index is down 21% year over year.
"This month’s easing in economic views was particularly strong among lower and middle income consumers," says Surveys of Consumers Director Joanne Hsu. "Consumers continue to note multiple vulnerabilities in the economy, with rising risks to business conditions, labor markets, and inflation."
She adds that while several consumers mentioned tariffs during interviews, sentiment remains above the lows seen in April and May after the Trump administration announced reciprocal tariffs.
The report also showed that year-ahead inflation expectations were unchanged from August, at 4.8%, while long-run inflation expectations ticked up to 3.9%.
"Consumers are becoming even more pessimistic about the economy," says Bill Adams, chief economist at Comerica. "There's still some time until the start of the holiday spending season, but the setup looks disappointing for consumer-facing businesses as of today."
As for the Fed, Adams points out that it is being "pulled in opposite directions" by rising inflation and a weak labor market. "Chair Powell signaled at his speech to the Jackson Hole monetary policy conference that he favored 'careful' adjustments of interest rates given those competing pressures."
Comerica, he adds, expects a quarter-point rate cut this Wednesday. And while "the Fed can be expected to cut rates further in coming months; the question is how much, not if," the economist says. "If Powell reiterates the 'proceed carefully' language he used at Jackson Hole in the post-meeting press conference, it will signal that he favors a pause in rate cuts at the October decision (barring further deterioration in the economic data)."
Adams notes that it "will be worth watching for a gap between the FOMC statement's guidance, which represents the consensus view of all FOMC members, and Chair Powell's own statements in the press conference, which reflect his personal view."
- Karee Venema
Stocks closed mixed ahead of Fed week, notch weekly gains
The main indexes closed mixed Friday. While the Nasdaq Composite (+0.4% at 22,141) managed to notch a new record high, the S&P 500 (-0.05% at 6,584) and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (-0.6% at 45,384) were not so resilient.
It was a strong week overall for the U.S. stock market, though, with the Nasdaq, S&P 500 and Dow adding between 1% and 2%.
- Karee Venema
Read more: S&P 500 Slips Ahead of Fed Week: Stock Market Today
