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Wales Online
Wales Online
National
Neil Shaw

Scientists predict exact date coronavirus crisis will end in UK

Scientists have used complex modelling to predict the exact date the coronavirus crisis will end in the UK - along with dates for the USA, Italy and other badly-hit countries.

The date would signify the moment the UK moves to Level One in the new coronavirus alert system - the lowest level of lockdown measures.

The Singapore University of Technology innovation lab has predicted the exact date the UK will be free of Covid-19 and can enter level one by using data-driven predictions.

It says the prediction is 'uncertain' and can change with time - meaning it is vulnerable to changes caused by easing lockdown and people breaching the rules.

The current rules in the UK will stay in place until the start of June when schools in England could reopen - with more businesses, cafes and shops opening in July.

The lab has also predicted when the coronavirus crisis will end in various countries around the world, reports the DailyStar.

Experts have plotted the rate of deaths in the UK in order to predict when the country will be free of the virus (Image: ddi.sutd.edu.sg)

The model predicts that the Covid-19 crisis could end in the UK on September 30.

And it says the pandemic will be over in the USA on November 11, in Italy on August 12 and in Singapore on July 19.

A spokesman for The Singapore University of Technology said: "The model and data are inaccurate to the complex, evolving, and heterogeneous realities of different countries.

"Predictions are uncertain by nature. Readers must take any predictions with caution.

"Over-optimism based on some predicted end dates is dangerous because it may loosen our disciplines and controls and cause the turnaround of the virus and infection, and must be avoided."

Modelling done in Washington and in Oxford predicted that the UK could first see zero deaths from coronavirus by June.

Professor Carl Heneghan, of the Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine at Oxford University told The Sun: "I think by the end of June we'll be looking at the data and finding it difficult to find people with this illness, if the current trends continue in the deaths.

"But we will continue to have these sporadic up and downs for about four to six weeks."

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