The Netherlands Military Intelligence and Security Service (MIVD) has warned that Russia could be capable of initiating a confrontation with NATO within 12 months after the war in Ukraine ends, raising fresh concerns over European security, hybrid warfare threats and nuclear escalation risks.
The assessment suggests Moscow may use a mix of cyberattacks, sabotage operations and strategic pressure tactics designed to exploit divisions within the Western alliance rather than engage in immediate full-scale war.
Russia Could Rebuild Military Strength
According to the Dutch intelligence report, Russia may be able to restore significant combat capability within a year of hostilities ending in Ukraine. The agency estimates that despite heavy losses, Moscow has continued to expand its military capacity through recruitment drives, increased weapons production and stockpiling of ammunition.
The MIVD assessed that Russia has suffered around 1.2 million permanent casualties since 2022, including more than 500,000 deaths. However, it noted that the Russian armed forces have become more operationally effective during the conflict, particularly in adapting battlefield lessons into improved command structures and weapon systems.
Vice Admiral Peter Reesink, director of the agency, said Russia remains the 'greatest and most direct threat to peace and stability in Europe', underlining the continued security risks facing NATO member states.
Hybrid Warfare and Cyberattacks Seen as Key Strategy
The report highlights that a direct conventional war between Russia and NATO is currently considered 'virtually out of the question' while Moscow remains heavily engaged in Ukraine. Instead, intelligence officials warn of an increasing reliance on hybrid warfare tactics.
These include cyberattacks targeting critical infrastructure, sabotage operations, covert intelligence activity and disinformation campaigns aimed at weakening political cohesion across Europe. Analysts say such tactics create a persistent security threat that is difficult to attribute and even harder to deter.
As cited by Mirror, the MIVD warned that these activities increase the risk of unintended escalation, particularly in situations where actions are misinterpreted or responses are disproportionate.
NATO Unity Identified as a Strategic Target
The intelligence assessment suggests Russia's broader objective is not outright military victory over NATO, but rather the reshaping of Europe's security architecture. It argues that Moscow may seek to exploit internal political divisions within the alliance in order to weaken collective decision-making.
The report indicates that Russia could focus on limited territorial pressure and influence operations designed to test NATO responses while avoiding full-scale conflict. Officials also warned that this approach may include nuclear signalling as a form of strategic intimidation, aimed at increasing pressure on Western governments.
China Cooperation and Cyber Capability Concerns
The MIVD report also points to growing cooperation between Russia and China, particularly in the cyber domain. It warns that China's cyber capabilities are highly advanced and organised in complex structures, which may indirectly strengthen Russia's ability to conduct cyber operations against Western targets.
The agency stated that Western countries remain vulnerable to these evolving threats, particularly as cyber warfare becomes more integrated into broader geopolitical competition.
Nuclear Risks and Global Arms Competition
Beyond conventional and hybrid threats, the report highlights renewed concerns over nuclear escalation risks. It warns that weakening arms control agreements, combined with rapid technological advances in artificial intelligence and quantum computing, could contribute to a new global arms race.
The intelligence agency also pointed to China's expanding nuclear arsenal as a factor reshaping global strategic stability. According to the report, these developments are increasing uncertainty in international security frameworks and complicating long-term defence planning for NATO allies.
Europe Faces Evolving Security Landscape
The MIVD concludes that Europe is entering a more volatile security environment where traditional rules-based systems may be increasingly challenged by power politics. While it does not predict imminent large-scale war, the assessment stresses that the period following any resolution in Ukraine could represent a heightened risk window for NATO, particularly within the first year.
