Russell Wilson has now been benched, and is likely done as a member of the Denver Broncos. His era spanned 30 games and produced 11 wins over the course of two seasons. Arguably, the most valuable aspect of giving Sean Payton an exorbitant amount of money to coach the Broncos in 2023 was that Payton had the cachet to tell ownership what was abundantly clear to everyone in Denver during Wilson’s first season there: The quarterback is not good enough anymore, and is certainly not worth rolling 30-plus million dollar guarantees each season.
On Sunday night against the New England Patriots, Wilson looked like the lead singer of a Russell Wilson cover band, attempting, but ultimately failing, to reach the physical range of the person he was there to imitate. In our Week 16 power rankings, I wrote about how his opening series against New England was the perfect entry into the end of the Wilson era. That turned out to be more prescient than I expected, especially since Denver is still tangentially alive in the playoff race, and it was surprising to see them bench Wilson now.
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There is little doubt that trading for Wilson was one of the worst personnel moves of the past 25 years. Denver traded away picks that became Charles Cross and Devon Witherspoon, and those are just the headliners. The Broncos ripped up a contract, handed Wilson a fistful of new money and took themselves out of the running for other quarterback options (including simply keeping Nathaniel Hackett for another season and becoming frontrunners for Aaron Rodgers on a natural grass surface in 2023). There were myriad “backup” quarterbacks who could have been better system fits for either Hackett in the interim or for Payton in ’23, any of whom could have produced more wins, or removed Denver from the spotlight and avoided semi-anonymous, always-covered-up teammate frustration that seems to accompany Wilson at each of his stops.
More interesting to me is what will happen to Wilson now and whether there will be any lingering side effects from the trade when it comes to future transactions. In terms of the American Dream, Wilson has made it. He’s earned hundreds of millions of dollars. He has a Super Bowl ring. He is married to a musical superstar. He is known for his acts of charity and faith which, when all of our obituaries are written, has to be one of the most important line items. Had it worked out in Denver, one could imagine Wilson attaining ownership status, as he reportedly coveted during the end of his tenure with the Seattle Seahawks.
But, in terms of living his football dream, I am not sure that Wilson has any remaining options. And, given where we were just a few years ago, clamoring for Seattle to unleash its offense so Wilson could be more like Wilson and win an MVP award, it feels stunning just how quickly a quarterback can decline in value and desirability.
We’ve made similar predictions about quarterbacks who, for one reason or another, have a unique and hyper-specific skill set, a history of complicated relationships, a certain degree of celebrity above football (and the logistical and interpersonal issues that creates), or a certain personality that could only work in the right locker room. Tim Tebow comes to mind. Carson Wentz comes to mind. Baker Mayfield, too.
For Mayfield, the epic process of humbling himself was arduous. He had to give money back, spend time in football outpost Carolina, board a cross-country flight and put his body on the line with limited preparation to win a barely-watched Thursday Night Football game for the Rams before we’d even consider him a potential starter again. He had to compete against Kyle Trask this preseason.
For Wentz, that process is just now beginning. After being booted in Philadelphia—and talked about in Indianapolis on-the-record by team ownership unlike any quarterback I’ve ever witnessed—then going to Washington where he lived the questions about his skill set and leadership out loud, Wentz is now quietly interning for Sean McVay and rebuilding his career.
One would have to question why Wilson, at 35, would put himself through that when he could rent a castle in the Scottish Highlands and live out his days in bliss. One would also question whether he could.
Wilson’s arrival in Denver was supposed to signal a new phase in his career. As attractive as it was to imagine Wilson in an outside-zone offense similar to the one Hackett had majored in as Packers offensive coordinator, it quickly became a muddled soup of ideas bent on promoting Wilson’s goal of being a quick-strike, pocket manager like Tom Brady who could play forever. Indeed, Wilson once told me at the age of 31 that he wanted to play for 15 more seasons, and this seemed to be the avenue by which he could achieve that goal. Under Payton, brief improvements in Wilson’s game seemed to coincide with the moments Wilson willingly left the pocket. In three of his four highest rushing attempt games of 2023, the Broncos won.
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But, Wilson’s gamble on himself exposed his flaws. One has to wonder how many defensive coordinators around the league were waiting for Wilson to fall on his face schematically. One also has to wonder how many teams Broncos GM George Paton was actually bidding against, and how ridiculous his contract and the equity surrendered look in hindsight.
We say all of that to ask ourselves what teams would willingly sign up for this reclamation project. Would Wilson compete for a starting job with Daniel Jones in New York? Would the iron fist of Mike Tomlin cover up the more difficult aspects of Wilson’s personality? A team would have to hope that Wilson could regain some of his nonlinear quickness, so that he could stave off pass rushers and allow more second- and third-chance routes to create openings downfield. Or, it would have to hope that Wilson could become more of a surgeon, which, the deeper we get into the film in this season, the harder that is to envision.
We also bring this all up to ask ourselves a bigger question: What other Wilsons are in our midst now that we are just not seeing? We are in this business of blindly projecting success for decades when, in reality, long-term greatness is nearly impossible to attain. At some point, Josh Allen will probably play for another football team. At some point, Patrick Mahomes is going to have two bad seasons in a row. We’re already seeing a Wilson-esque situation playing itself out in Cleveland, with the Browns’ brilliant supporting cast covering for the potentially horrifying idea of paying a replacement-level quarterback $230 million on a fully-guaranteed deal.
If nothing else, Wilson’s tenure could serve as a cautionary tale. Unless, of course, he defies the longest of odds and reinvents himself the way we all thought he could under two different head coaches in Denver.
