The sprawling political battlefield for the 2018 midterms grew larger on Monday, when Florida’s governor, Rick Scott, announced his bid for the Senate.
The two-term Republican will face off against three-term Democrat Bill Nelson in what could be one of the most competitive Senate races. Shortly after Scott’s announcement, the nonpartisan Cook Political Report rated the race a toss-up. A poll in late February by Quinnipiac gave Nelson a narrow lead, 46% to 42%.
Florida is a swing state that has been taken by the winning presidential candidate in the past seven elections. In 2000, a notoriously close election and recount gave the White House to George W Bush by only a few hundred votes.
However, Florida is also one of the most expensive states in which to campaign. It costs $3m a week to air TV ads across the state, which covers two time zones, four major metropolitan areas and 10 media markets.
Scott, who spent more than $75m of his own money on his first campaign for governor, in 2010, will have the ability to spend his own funds. He also has high name recognition.
However, both his gubernatorial victories came in years that strongly favored Republicans. Democrats will start the 2018 midterms with a significant advantage on the generic ballot. In Florida they have already won a key special election for state senate in a traditionally Republican district.
Nelson is a former astronaut who went into space while serving in Congress. He has won five statewide elections. However, he has not faced a competitive race since his first campaign for the Senate, in 2000.
As with all races in 2018, Donald Trump will loom large. Scott was an early endorser and will be linked to the unpopular president by Democrats.
In an interview with Politico on Monday, Scott dodged questions about whether he was a “Donald Trump Republican”. Instead, he said: “I consider myself Rick Scott. I don’t consider myself any type of anything.”
Scott also dodged questions about whether he would campaign with Trump, who has long urged him to run for Senate.
The race has also acquired unique dynamics in the aftermath of the mass shooting at Marjory Stoneman Douglas high school in Parkland in February. Scott signed gun control legislation that was condemned by the National Rifle Association. It is unclear if gun rights advocates will hold that against him or if it will gain him any support from more moderate voters.
The race has national ramifications. Senate Democrats must defend 10 seats in states won by Trump while only one Senate Republican is up for re-election in a state won by Clinton.
Scott’s entry will require a response, stretching Democratic resources as the party defends incumbents in deep red states like West Virginia and North Dakota.
