When the UK went into coronavirus lockdown a year ago, few people thought it would need to bounce in and out of the strictest curtailment of freedoms in memory several more times.
Now a Guardian data analysis shows how, while all three national lockdowns were successful in reducing infection rates, each was lifted when cases in at least some areas were too high, leading to rebounds.
As the whole of the UK begins to ease restrictions once again, there are currently nine areas that have case rates of more than 135 in every 100,000 – the threshold at which Leicester was first put under local lockdown back on 29 June 2020.
With the vaccine rollout, there are hopes that the current lockdown may be the UK’s last.
But the lessons of previous waves are clear. Martin McKee, a professor of European public health at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, warned that last year the UK was imposing travel restrictions when rates elsewhere were 20 in every 100,000. Cases are much higher now as restrictions are once again being eased.
He added: “The vaccine rollout changes things a lot. Essentially, it removes a large number of people from the pool of those at risk, which is good.
“However, it also means that if the overall number of cases is the same then it is concentrated in a smaller population so, among them, rates are higher. This has implications for severe illness in these groups. Even though the risk is low in these groups, in this case younger people, the higher incidence among them means that the absolute number of those getting severely ill will be higher.”
About the data
The data used in this analysis is the rolling rate of coronavirus cases for each local authority, as found by specimen date. The data is published by data.gov.uk.
The seven-day rolling rate for any one day is calculated by working out the mean average of the day itself, the previous three days and the following three days. These numbers are then standardised by population, working out the rate per 100,000 people, in order to fairly compare areas of different size.
Changing testing rates can impact case rates. There have been more recorded cases in the second wave of the pandemic, and this can be partly attributed to increased testing. Many more tests were done in autumn than during the first wave in the spring.
Such issues in the inconsistent recording of coronavirus cases can make direct comparisons between the first and second waves problematic. However, in the case of Leicester and Greater Manchester and their local lockdowns, mass testing was already in place and so direct comparisons are more reliable.
