Good evening from New York City, where we’re wrapping up today’s installment of the Guardian’s 2016 campaign liveblog. For the next 236 days, we’ll keep bringing you minute-by-minute coverage of the campaign trail, from the cornfields of Iowa to the convention halls of Cleveland - and every Trump rally in between.
One year before the inauguration of the 46th president of the United States, a flurry of new polls indicated that the race to the Oval Office is becoming more volatile by the day. With only 11 days to go before the Iowa caucuses - and on the heels of a CNN/WMUR poll released that shows Vermont senator Bernie Sanders with a commanding 27-point lead in New Hampshire - a new CNN/ORC poll gave Sanders an eight-point lead over Hillary Clinton in Iowa – 51% to 43%.
Clinton had led Sanders by 18 points in the same poll last December, 54% to 36%, and the reversal of fortunes in the Hawkeye State could be hugely damaging if CNN’s numbers come to pass. Although Clinton’s numbers are firmer in South Carolina, a one-two loss in the first primary states could mean the beginnings of a domino effect.
So much for her Demi Lovato-certified confidence.
"I don't think there's a woman more confident than Hillary Clinton," Lovato says, after singing her song 'Confident' pic.twitter.com/nm1YpFaAxe
— Adam Gabbatt (@adamgabbatt) January 22, 2016
Meanwhile, the same survey gave billionaire Republican frontrunner Donald Trump a double-digit lead among likely Republican caucus-goers, leading Texas senator Ted Cruz 37% to 26%. Florida senator Marco Rubio is in a distant third place at 14%. No other member of the crowded field cracks the double digits - which makes Jeb(!) Bush a real sad sack.
Sad sack @JebBush has just done another ad on me, with special interest money, saying I won't beat Hillary - I WILL. But he can't beat me.
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) January 21, 2016
Permanent second-place Republican candidate Ted Cruz alienated the key “nerd” demographic after refusing to take a “Jedi pledge” to “blow up the Death Star” of Citizens United, the 2010 supreme court ruling that allowed corporations and unions to spend unlimited money in support of political campaigns. Cruz called it a matter of free speech, although it would have been way more on-brand for him to say that he found the questioner’s lack of faith in the judicial branch disturbing.
The Guardian’s Ben Jacobs, reporting from the birthplace of deep-fried Oreos, reminded us that despite his precipitous fall in polls, retired pediatric neurosurgeon Ben Carson still has Secret Service protection. His Secret Service codename: “Eli.”
(Fun fact: Secret Service codenames, a legacy from pre-NSA days when sensitive electronic communications weren’t encrypted, are bestowed by the White House Communications Agency. The first family’s codenames are traditionally alliterative, and Al Gore’s daughter Karenna was codenamed “Smurfette.” If Liveblog Scott were to choose a Secret Service codename, it would either be “Bookbag” or “Stormtrooper.”)
In more bad news for Clinton, the former secretary of state - Secret Service codename: “Evergreen” - infuriated students at the University of Iowa after speaking for only five minutes after a three-song Demi Lovato concert was held in her honor.
And in a preview of tomorrow’s highly anticipated anti-Trump editorial from the National Review:
Welcome to the fight, all. Trump is not a conservative. pic.twitter.com/Fri8reAEx1
— Jeb Bush (@JebBush) January 22, 2016
That’s it for fear and laughing on the campaign trail today - tune in tomorrow, the day after, and the 235 days after that as our team of reporters file from around the country, trailing the clown car so you don’t have to.
Demi Lovato won rave reviews at a Clinton campaign rally in Iowa City, according to the Guardian’s Adam Gabbatt. If only the same could be said for Hillary herself...
Hillary Clinton left her audience cold in Iowa City on Thursday night, after she spoke for less than five minutes to a crowd of more than a thousand people, some of whom had lined up for over an hour to see her.
After a day marred by a new poll showing Bernie Sanders leading her by eight points in Iowa, Clinton might have been expected to go for broke at a rally featuring a performance by pop star Demi Lovato.
But Clinton did not reference the Vermont senator in her speech, the length of which appeared to upset many in the crowd.
“It was like a political commercial,” said Allisson Steigerwald, a 24-year-old graduate student at the University of Iowa. “I thought she was saying goodbye to Demi and then she’d start her speech. But it never happened.”
“It was very short,” said Jennifer Marks, 22. “There were a lot of statements. Like: ‘We are we going to make things happen.’,” Marks said. “No actual how.”
Marks said she felt less inclined to vote for Clinton as a result. “But it wasn’t very likely to begin with,” she added. She plans to vote for Sanders.
“I just feel bad for the people who got here at 5,” she said.
Clinton took the stage at around 8.15pm, after Lovato had performed three songs from her recent album Confident. Clinton praised Lovato, who has bipolar disorder and is the face of the Be Vocal mental health campaign, for “having the voice to reach out to so many people who need a little bit of help themselves.
“You have set an extraordinary example to so many in the way you have talked about issues that we all find sometimes hard to talk about,” Clinton said.
The rest of her speech was so short that it is possible to summarize almost all of it in the next six paragraphs.
Clinton thanked the audience for attending. “I’d be so thrilled and honoured if you can caucus for me,” she said. She then promised to “work as hard as I know how to take it to the Republicans” and win the election.
Clinton said was proud of the progress made under President Obama and promised to deal “with the big issues” if elected.
“Like: how do we get the economy working for everybody, not just those at the top,” she said.
“How we keep our country safe and lead the world with peace prosperity and security. And how do we deal with a lot of those prelims that people across Iowa talk to me about. How are we going to afford college, how do we get the cost of student debt down?”
She spoke about making prescription drugs more affordable and defending “human rights and women’s rights”. And about how she would “take on those big special interests” if elected.
“Join us in helping to change our country, keep it on a progressive path, make sure we don’t go backward we go forward with confidence,” Clinton said.
And that was it.
Definitely not cool for the summer. Or the winter. Or any season, really.
The Guardian’s Adam Gabbatt reports live from Iowa City on the most important story of the night and possibly of the campaign: Singer Demi Lovato’s appearance in Iowa with Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton:
"I don't think there's a woman more confident than Hillary Clinton," Lovato says, after singing her song 'Confident' pic.twitter.com/nm1YpFaAxe
— Adam Gabbatt (@adamgabbatt) January 22, 2016
We have Demi Lovato! She walked into the hall to applause before joining her band – accoustic guitar, keyboard, drums – on stage.
“Hello. My name is Demi. I’m so excited to be here!” Lovato said, with typical grace and modesty.
With that she launched into a rousing rendition of recent hit Confident, from the 2015 album of the same name. (Ed.: Yaaass.)
The crowd - and I - went wild.
“I don’t think there is a woman more confident than Hillary Clinton,” Lovato said afterwards.
Lovato, who was born in Albuquerque, New Mexico, on August 20 1992, then performed Stone Cold. The song is the fifth track on her album Confident, which peaked at number 11 on the Billboard top 100 chart. The album’s eponymous song went platinum.
“I’ve got one more song for you guys, and the title of this song is why everyone should vote!” Lovato then told her adoring audience.
The song was Yes, the tenth track from Confident. Confident received a 4.5 star rating (out of five stars) upon its release last October.
A mesmerizing performance.
More good polling news for Donald Trump: A Zogby Analytics poll of likely Republican primary voters shows the billionaire frontrunner receiving the support of a whopping 45% of the national primary electorate, leading Texas senator Ted Cruz by 32 points.
According to Zogby, Trump polls wins the lion’s share of male Republican voters with 49% support, women with 41%, as well as Republicans overall with 47%. He also takes 49% of independents - who can only vote in certain primaries, including the Iowa caucuses - 46% of self-described conservatives and 45% of self-described moderates.
In speculative head-to head matchups, Trump beats Cruz 59% to 29%, Florida senator Marco Rubio 64% to 27%, former Florida governor Jeb(!) Bush 68% to 22%, Ohio governor John Kasich 73% to 15% and New Jersey governor Chris Christie 69% to 19%.
It’s what former president George W. Bush might call “a thumpin’.”
Behind Cruz’s distant second-place support at 13%, Rubio commands 8% of the national primary electorate, Jeb Bush wins 6% and every other candidate falls below the margin of error.
Of course, a requisite reminder that national polls do not really matter at this stage in the primary race, but given Trump’s standing in the most recent polls in first-in-the-nation states like Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina, Zogby’s results may force the rest of the crowded field of Republican candidates - and the rest of the Republican party, for that matter - to contend with the potential reality of a Donald Trump nomination.
The Guardian’s Adam Gabbatt, sensing Liveblog Scott’s tedium, has gifted us with a report on the pre-event buildup ahead of Hillary Clinton’s dual appearance in Iowa City with singer/songwriter/actress/model/general icon Demi Lovato.
According to Gabbatt, Lovato doesn’t necessarily have the same fervent following among Hawkeye State politicos as she does among, say, twentysomething gay men in New York City:
Big crowd at the University of Iowa to see Hillary Clinton. (That's not Hillary Clinton. I don't know who that is.) pic.twitter.com/dTHXjdNTfa
— Adam Gabbatt (@adamgabbatt) January 22, 2016
Hillary Clinton’s event in Iowa City hasn’t even begun yet, but some members of the crowd are already in high spirits. The concert hall was almost full thirty minutes before Clinton and pop sensation Demi Lovato were due to appear.
Outside the hall, people at the back of snaking line that they faced a 55-minute wait to get in.
Jennifer Ettinger, 18, stood dancing at the back of the crowd at 6:30pm. Her friend Avery Rice, 19, was filming a Snapchat video.
“She’s a really good dancer, “ Rice said of her companion. “She did ballet in high school.”
Rice, a first-year student studying business, said she was there primarily to see Clinton. “I like her. I think she would be good in office,” she said. “She’s a cool girl.”
Neither of the women were huge Demi Lovato fans. “She’s, like, fine,” Rice said. (Ed.: What.)
“Who even is Demi Lovato?” Ettinger asked of the singer who has, quite literally, leant her voice to the Clinton campaign. (Ed.: No, seriously. WHAT.)
“She was on the Disney Channel,” Avery said.
Ettinger said she would have preferred to see Justin Bieber perform. “This place would be so packed if it was Justin Bieber,” she said.
Ben Jacobs revives a three-year-old tweet to show the (presumably retired) license plate of Andy McGuire, who is moderating the CNN town hall on Monday in Des Moines:
New license plate of Andy McGuire, former Dem candidate for Lt Gov of Iowa and 2008 Hillary co-chair in Iowa pic.twitter.com/SpHkhthJQS
— Ben Jacobs (@Bencjacobs) July 11, 2013
Updated
The Guardian’s Ben Jacobs files from a Ben Carson campaign event in Glenwood, Iowa, where the neurosurgeon declared that any military veterans suffering from post-traumatic stress disorder had better bring a doctor’s note to the VA if they want to be treated:
Ben Carson indicated that he might be willing to deny support for PTSD to anyone in the military who is an undocumented immigrant.
In a gaggle in Glenwood, Iowa on Thursday, Carson was asked about Sarah Palin blaming her son Track’s PTSD on Barack Obama. After making clear that “I probably wouldn’t do that, but then again I am not big blamer,” the retired neurosurgeon then discussed the importance of providing those in the military support of potential PTSD. “All of our troops, anyone who signs up for volunteer military, should have a support group that works for them in their entire military career, particularly when they are in combat.”
When Carson was asked whether this support should be extended to those in the military who are undocumented immigrants, however, he seemed hesitant to do so. After he said “I personally don’t believe anyone who is illegally in the us should be in our military,” Carson added he thought PTSD support groups to illegal immigrants serving in the US military should “be looked at on a case-by-case basis.”
Updated
Good news for Bernie Sanders is bad news for New Hampshire citizens who don’t carpool, according to the Guardian’s Dan Roberts.
It may lack the predictive punch of an 8pt Iowa poll lead, but the car park of every Sanders event in New Hampshire today has been rammed.
— Dan Roberts (@RobertsDan) January 21, 2016
Looks like Donald Trump has gotten word about his latest poll numbers...
Thank you, Iowa! #Trump2016 pic.twitter.com/ryhEheTLqN
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) January 21, 2016
The Guardian’s David Smith trailed Ted Cruz in New Hampshire today, where the Texas senator juggled Star Wars fans and Bible thumping primary voters in the same afternoon - and pledged to hold a pig roast on the White House lawn:
Ted Cruz has been showing his protean talents in New Hampshire, first quipping about Hollywood movies with students at a university campus, then referencing the Bible with a working-class audience in a pizza joint.
The Texas senator was presented with a $5 plastic lightsaber by Andrew Slack, 36, a civic activist and self-described “director of the US rebel alliance”. Cruz, himself a Star Wars fan, played along. He said Han Solo was the coolest character in cinema and anyone who believes Luke Skywalker is instead should be disqualified from running for president.
But he disappointed Slack by refusing to take a “Jedi pledge” to “blow up the Death Star” of Citizens United, the supreme court’s 2010 ruling that allowed corporations and unions to spend unlimited money on campaigning and ushered in the rise of Super Pacs.
Cruz said it was a matter of free speech, explaining: “I think Michael Moore’s movies are idiotic. But he’s got a first amendment right to keep making idiotic movies.”
Asked whom he would invite to a fantasy dinner party, Cruz mentioned Jesus Christ, Ronald Reagan, Winston Churchill, Martin Luther King and Elvis Presley. He also promised to hold a pig roast on the south lawn of the White House.
Afterwards he told journalists the Republican establishment is defecting from Marco Rubio to Donald Trump because of the latter’s willingness to cut deals. “The establishment is saying the one guy who scares the heck out of us is Cruz, because Cruz will actually stand with the American people against the career politicians in both parties that get in bed with the lobbyists and special interests.”
Trump has previously been a donor to the Clinton Foundation and supported Clinton and other leading Democrats, Cruz added. “Every day he is engaging in more and more personal attacks. I have no intention of responding. I like Donald Trump, I respect Donald Trump, I will continue to praise him personally, and so if he wants to engage in insults that’s his prerogative. But I’m going to keep the focus on the issues of substance. I think policy distinctions are fair game.”
The senator then made his way to Theo’s pizza restaurant, which was standing-room only and in a more febrile mood. Cruz gave a bleaker account of the state of the nation, comparing it with Jimmy Carter’s presidency in the 1970s but noting that this was followed by the glory years of Reagan and the timeworn “shining city on the hill”.
He pledged to revoke Obama’s executive orders and actions on gun control and other matters, launch an investigation into Planned Parenthood “and those horrible videos”, protect religious liberty and “rip to shreds this catastrophic Iranian nuclear deal”.
And that would just be his first day in office.
He would also move the US embassy in Israel to Jerusalem and “repeal every word of Obamacare”. As for immigration, Cruz said slyly: “We’re going to build a wall - and I got somebody in mind to build it.”
As placard-waving supporters voiced support, Cruz promised to defend the Supreme Court against a liberal majority of justices. Hillary Clinton, he warned, would seek to use it to tear down war memorials which would be “not so far” from removing crosses and stars of David from war graves.
He urged the crowd to pray for the nation and each encourage nine friends to vote for him on primary day. “Continue this awakening,” he said.
The glitz! The glamour! The number of people called stupid!
The Guardian’s Rupert Neate reports from the South Point resort and casino in Las Vegas, where billionaire frontrunner Donald Trump was stumping with the wind of two major polls at his back:
A lot of people came to see Donald Trump speak in a casino Las Vegas on Thursday, and he demanded the media take note of it. The leading Republican Presidential candidate called the press “scumbags at the back of the room” for, he said, consistently not showing the scale of the crowds that turn out to support his campaign rallies.
Trump, in brilliant pink tie, starts off by attacking the media as "scumbags". 'All they focus on is the protesters' pic.twitter.com/gjh1BwTGbv
— RupertNeate (@RupertNeate) January 21, 2016
At one point, Trump, who according to a new poll has captured a double-digit lead in Iowa a mere 11 days before the caucuses, halted his rambling speech until TV cameramen “turn around and show the crowd”. “There’s not been one shot of the crowd,” he said.
So many people (4,000, according to casino security) had turned out to see Trump speak that the casino opened up three overflow rooms to relay his speech on big screens.
Many of those who turned out to see Trump had come from Shot Show, the gun industry trade show also being held in Las Vegas, and one of the biggest cheers came as the candidate pledged to “save the Second Amendment”.
“You listen to Hillary, and you’re not going to have a Second Amendment!”
Jerry Springer, 68, (yes his real name, I checked) was one of those who had taken a break from the gun fair to turn out for Trump. Even though not a big fan of Trump, Springer said he would support any Republican who can “take out Hillary”.
Springer, who wore a sticker on the back of his shirt reading “1.20.17 OBAMA’S LAST DAY IN OFFICE!”, said Obama was “the worst president we have ever had”.
“Why? He is changing this country away from what it was. He doesn’t want people to pay for anything. He is giving away food stamps to everyone. He is making it so that people don’t have to pay for anything, and it is people like us that have to pay for everything.”
Meet Jerry Springer (really, I checked his ID). He's not a fan of Obama, but not hugely keen on Trump either. pic.twitter.com/NiqXUuQwhM
— RupertNeate (@RupertNeate) January 21, 2016
Trump, whose speech concentrated on his favourite topics of immigration, taxation and trade, said “we are being led by stupid people”, and he wanted to lead the country to “make America great again”.
He had a lot of fans in the room, including Rhonda Settles, a small business owner who has lived in Vegas since 1975, said Trump was “awesome as usual”.
“The country is in a downward spiral, and Trump is the only one stepping up to the plate,” she said. “He is the one we can believe he can make America great again. He has a proven record, even though not necessarily in politics.”
Settles, who is African American, said she did not believe Trump was racist or prejudice, despite his description of Mexicans as criminals and rapists and his pledge to make Mexico pay for a wall along the border to prevent illegal immigration.
“Those were not negative [comments],” she said. “We have to protect our country, I don’t think he has anything to do with prejudice or racism. It is about following the laws that exist, but the current government has not been following.”
Settles conceded that Trump did not make any real promises in his 45 minute Vegas speech, but said: “We’re at the point where we have to listen not to what they say but how they say it. Donald Trump is ringing true to a lot of people. I don’t need to know every detail. I just need to trust him, and I do.”
Sharon and Charles Wax, both in their eighties, are also strident Trump supports. “We think he’s absolutely fabulous,” said Sharon wearing a Trump hat, light-up bow tie and a t shirt showing her and Charles meeting Trump at a previous rally. “He thinks what Americans think, our country has gone down the tubes after eight years of Democrats. This is the only man who can bring trade back to America and, as he says, make America great again.”
If Congress handed out superlatives at the end of every session - and if the continued drollery of the Miss America pageant is any indication, it should - Texas senator Ted Cruz would be in no danger of winning “Most Popular.”
A new report from the Associated Press highlights Cruz’s deep unpopularity within the US senate, calling him the “least-favorite colleague” of nearly every Republican senator. But the abhorrence for Cruz’s personal politics and perceived grandstanding is giving way in the upper chamber to panic as members of the senate worry that Cruz’s nomination could spell the end of the party’s control of Congress.
Orrin Hatch of Utah told the Associated Press that he has yet to see “any great desire on [Cruz’s] part to really bring the party along with him, so that’s something that worries me.”
Representative Pete King of New York called Cruz a “fraud,” saying that he couldn’t name a single person in Washington “who gets this opposition from his own people. ... I’m talking about people as conservative as he is who just can’t stand him.”
Richard Burr of North Carolina even reportedly told supporters at a campaign fundraiser that he would rather vote for socialist senator Bernie Sanders than Cruz.
A few of the more glaring highlights that Cruz’s detractors cite in their opposition:
- Cruz implied that former senator Chuck Hagel had received compensation from North Korea during a confirmation hearing
- His confrontation with the White House over the Affordable Care Act resulted in a 16-day government shutdown that Americans largely blamed on the Republican party
- Last year, Cruz accused McConnell of lying about scheduling a vote on the Export-Import Bank in a speech on the senate floor
And who does the senate seem ready to crown as Miss Congeniality? Florida senator Marco Rubio, who has received the endorsement of four Republican members of the chamber.
Cruz has received none.
Filing from the bustling metropolis of Brooklyn, Adam Gabbatt reports that support for Vermont senator Bernie Sanders is at an alarming low.
Wait - scratch that.
Filing from the sleepy cornfields of Brooklyn, Iowa, Adam Gabbatt reports that support for Vermont senator Bernie Sanders is at an alarming low:
Is Brooklyn, Iowa, for Bernie? I'm about to find out pic.twitter.com/JCPG0OrU7E
— Adam Gabbatt (@adamgabbatt) January 21, 2016
In Brooklyn, New York, the main industry is independent coffee shops and almond milk. In Brooklyn, Iowa, it is agriculture: corn, soy and dairy milk.
More than 2.5 million people live in Brooklyn, New York. Brooklyn, Iowa, has a population of 1,500 people.
Oh – and in Brooklyn, New York, Bernie Sanders is wildly popular. Whereas in the Iowan Brooklyn, no one seems to like him very much.
“No,” said Marcia Kilmer, 66, when I asked if she would be voting for Sanders. She was having her hair cut in Shear Expressions. “He’s too old. I don’t like his age.” She likes Ted Cruz and Ben Carson.
“I do not, myself,” said a woman in Brooklyn’s pharmacy, when I asked if she liked Sanders.
“I’m not a big fan of spreading the wealth. I think you should get what you earn,” said a man called Paul, when I asked him why he didn’t like Sanders. Paul was sitting in Brooklyn’s grocery store, Seaton’s Flag Foods, with five friends.
None of them supported Bernie Sanders.
Stay tuned for more updates from Brooklyn, Iowa...
Updated
Reporting from the frosty snowfields of Arendelle Iowa, the Guardian’s Ben Jacobs points out that the campaign’s favorite pediatric neurosurgeon is well-protected - if not well supported:
Everyone remembers that Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton have Secret Service protection - but a third candidate does as well.
Despite his precipitous fall in polls, Ben Carson still has Secret Service protection. The retired neurosurgeon was given Secret Service protection in November along with Trump, at a point when the two were still neck-and-neck in the polls. Secret Service protection is awarded based a mix of factors, including polling and the number of death threats received. Hillary Clinton has been entitled to a Secret Service detail since the start of the campaign and beyond, due to her status as a former first lady.
The result is a jarring juxtaposition as one arrives at a Carson event. Despite his diminishing standing in the polls and a crowd that is heavily composed of high school students eager for an excuse to leave class early, there are still agents in suits and earpieces alertly scanning the crowd and a magnetometer at the entrance to the event.
The Guardian business correspondent Rupert Neate is on the scene in Las Vegas, where Donald Trump is cutting into his best friend and favorite foe, the news media:
Trump, in brilliant pink tie, starts off by attacking the media as "scumbags". 'All they focus on is the protesters' pic.twitter.com/gjh1BwTGbv
— RupertNeate (@RupertNeate) January 21, 2016
The room at the South Point resort and casino is filled to capacity - partly, Rupert says, by design:
More than 4,000 people were issued tickets to see Donald Trump in Vegas. Capacity is 1,5k. People are angry #trump pic.twitter.com/Jf40Yw3u4f
— RupertNeate (@RupertNeate) January 21, 2016
Vermont senator Bernie Sanders is becoming a bit of a cut-up on the campaign trail, to rave reviews from audiences, reports Washington Bureau chief Dan Roberts:
One sign of growing confidence in the Bernie Sanders camp is his willingness to gently mock his reputation for quirky public speaking. In recent days we’ve had quips about his hair and dress sense that do much to endear him to young supporters, but today at Southern New Hampshire University he took on the reputation for giving lectures.
“Let me a bit professorial here,” said Sanders to laughter from the students. “Who knows the difference between real unemployment and official unemployment?”, he asked, in an exchange that would not have been out of place in economics class.
The next assignment concerns the environment - a big theme here where Sanders was joined by campaigner Bill McKibben. “How does that relate to campaign finance?” asked the prof, before explaining his theory of the link between energy industry lobbying and climate change denial among Republicans.
It’s not all one way though. After he acknowledged being accused of “Santa Claus” tendencies, one student asks the six-million-dollar question about how Sanders can possibly achieve everything he is proposing. “What am I smoking, you mean?,” he shot back to more laughter.
(His answer, in case you were wondering, is that all radical change takes people by surprise.)
More from the Cable News Network’s polling apparatus...
The same survey that showed Hillary Clinton with a devastating eight-point deficit in Iowa indicates additional good news for outsider candidates who are relatively new to their party of choice. Billionaire frontrunner Donald Trump holds a double-digit lead among likely Republican caucus-goers in the Hawkeye State, leading Texas senator Ted Cruz by eleven points, 37% to 26%. The survey, conducted earlier this week, finds Florida senator Marco Rubio in third place at 14%, the only other Republican candidate to hold double digits in the state.
Trump jumped four points since the same poll was conducted in late November/early December, while Cruz picked up six points. Fifty-four percent of likely Iowa voters see Trump as the most qualified candidate to handle the economy, and an outright majority of 51% say he’s the best candidate on immigration. He even edges out Cruz on foreign policy, 27% to 25%, although among social conservatives, the Texas senator walks away with a leading 29% who are concerned about same-sex marriage and abortion.
Among the lower tier, retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson “leads” with 6% - a quarter of the support he had among likely caucus-goers in October - with Jeb Bush and Mike Huckabee tied for fifth place at 3% each. Kentucky senator Rand Paul, who has put little energy in Iowa, is at 2%, while Chris Christie, Carly Fiorina, John Kasich and previous caucus-winner Rick Santorum each pull in only 1% support.
Put another way: If supporters of the bottom eight candidates were to coalesce behind a single person, that candidate would be in third place.
Hillary Clinton's latest Iowa poll numbers are borderline disastrous
CNN polls are officially on the Clinton hit list.
With only 11 days to go before the Iowa caucuses, a new CNN/ORC poll released Thursday afternoon finds Vermont senator Bernie Sanders with an astonishing eight-point lead over Hillary Clinton in Iowa – 51% to 43%. It’s a dramatic reversal of fortunes for the former secretary of state, who led Sanders by 18 points in the same poll last December, 54% to 36%.
The poll arrives on the heels of a CNN/WMUR poll released earlier this week that shows Sanders with a commanding 27-point lead in New Hampshire. A one-two loss in both Iowa, originally deemed safe Clinton territory, and New Hampshire could indicate an existential threat to the former secretary of state’s candidacy.
Key to Sanders’ lead: voters who will be caucusing for the first time. Among Democrats who caucused in 2008, Clinton leads Sanders by a comfortable 17 points, 55% to 38%. The self-declared socialist can also credit his perceived authenticity on economic issues as a major factor in the surge in support. Likely caucus-goers told CNN that they trust Sanders over Clinton on the economy by 22 points – two in three surveyed said they felt he would do more for America’s middle class. A mere 30% felt that way about Clinton.
It wasn’t exclusively bad news for the former secretary of state, who leads on foreign policy among likely Iowa voters, viewed as more trustworthy on the issue by a margin of 40 points. Additionally, despite what appear to be massive weaknesses in early states, Clinton is seen as the candidate most likely to win the general election in November, 60% to 38%.
Updated
It may have flown under the radar, but an unexpectedly popular presidential candidate has picked up a huge (yuge?) endorsement from a vanguard of his adopted party’s activist wing.
No, not Donald Trump. Obviously, you heard all about that endorsement.
Vermont senator Bernie Sanders picked up the endorsement of The Nation, the oldest continuously published weekly magazine in the US and self-described “flagship of the left,” earlier this month. Now, Katrina vanden Heuvel, The Nation’s editor and publisher, has come out in an interview explaining the progressive magazine’s decision to endorse a primary candidate for only the third time in its 150-year history.
“It is a statement of commitment to issues we believe in above all,” said vanden Heuvel in the magazine’s podcast Start Making Sense. Sanders, vanden Heuvel said, “lifts up, amplifies the issues that have animated The Nation over these last decades.”
“The key issue... is inequality,” she elaborated. “There are many kinds of inequality, but Bernie Sanders is an unbought and passionate fighter against a rigged system and metastasizing inequality, economic and political.”
“Above all, it was his commitment to exposing a rigged system” that prompted The Nation to give the self-declared socialist its endorsement in the Democratic primary.
An endorsement from The Nation is a rare event - the periodical has previously endorsed Ulysses S. Grant in 1868, Norman Thomas in 1943 and Franklin Delano Roosevelt in each of his four campaigns - and even rarer in a primary campaign. It’s the second time that the magazine has endorsed Hillary Clinton’s main rival in the Democratic primary, having bestowed the honor upon then-senator Barack Obama in 2008.
Listen to the full interview, in which vanden Heuvel (pronounced “VAN-din HOY-vul,” in case you were stumped) praises Sanders’ ability to raise millions almost exclusively from small donors, calling him “liberated” to pursue progressive policies without fear of political reprisal.
Despite some new polls showing Bernie Sanders ahead in New Hampshire by as much as 27 points, there is an air of realism at his first campaign stop since the latest surge captured headlines here, writes Guardian Washington bureau chief Dan Roberts:
The meeting with seniors at the Peterborough community center reflected a conscious push by the campaign to bolster support among older voters, whose undeniable interest in the 74-year-old has been somewhat eclipsed by the more vocal enthusiasm Sanders generally receives from students and younger voters.
“He cares about us older folks – he is one of us you know,” says Merry Stockwell, a volunteer who introduced the senator from neighbouring Vermont to this retirement community an hour or so north of Boston.
“I believe in what he is saying, I’m just not sure how much of it he is going to be able to achieve,” said Ruth, a 68-year-old retired educator from the nearby town of Antrim, who is one of the many voters in the state still to make up their minds.
Though equally sceptical about Hillary Clinton – “Hillary has got a lot of baggage” – she shrugs when asked what might convince her that Sanders can realistically take on Republicans and win the White House.
Read the full piece here.
Snyder to face Congress
Congress wants to hear from the governor of Michigan about poisonous drinking water in the town of Flint:
BREAKING: Rick Snyder will testify in front of Congress on Feb. 3 https://t.co/iwW2OzfjuG
— Justin Miller (@justinjm1) January 21, 2016
Read Joanna Walters’ profile of Snyder here:
The Guardian’s David Smith is following Ted Cruz at Saint Anselm College in Manchester, New Hampshire:
Ted Cruz: I love New Hampshire but it is cold. I have to admit I’ve taken my cowboy boots off.
Cruz: “I am really encouraged what we’re seeing on the ground. We are running in New Hampshire a grassroots campaign.”
Cruz: What’s great in New Hampshire is that every one of you is performing a service to Americans.
Cruz: Playing Monopoly is the closest I've ever been to being Donald Trump. I drive my wife mad by playing iPhone games.
— David Smith (@SmithInAmerica) January 21, 2016
Cruz on fantasy dinner party: Sitting down with Jesus Christ would be an amazing experience.
— David Smith (@SmithInAmerica) January 21, 2016
That would be amazing.
Adam Gabbatt prepares to check out the other Brooklyn.
Is Brooklyn, Iowa, for Bernie? I'm about to find out pic.twitter.com/JCPG0OrU7E
— Adam Gabbatt (@adamgabbatt) January 21, 2016
Clinton sends army of surrogates to Iowa
There’s probably no one in the race who could (literally, not figuratively) win a shouting match against Vermont senator Bernie Sanders, whose trademark is a full-throated tirade against the billionaire class, writes the Guardian’s Lauren Gambino:
But locked in a tight race with just days to go before voting begins, Hillary Clinton is dispatching actors, athletes, musicians, politicians, activists and family members across the Hawkeye state to help her turn up the volume on the campaign trail.
In lieu of the former secretary of state, Iowans can catch Julián Castro, former mayor of San Antonio and secretary of Housing and Urban Development; actress and activists Jamie Lee Curtis; athlete and activist Billie Jean King; Cecile Richards, president of Planned Parenthood Action Fund; Senator Kirsten Gillibrand of New York; Senator Tim Kaine of Virginia; Stephanie Schriock, President of EMILY’s List; Senator Cory Booker of New Jersey; and Scandal actor Tony Goldwyn.
Clinton has even more politicians, entertainers and athletes – plus husband Bill and daughter Chelsea – fanning out across other key early-voting states, including New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada in the coming days and weeks.
A much smaller group of surrogates will hit the trail on Sanders’ behalf. They include rapper and activist Killer Mike; professor Cornel West; Ben Cohen, co-founder of Ben & Jerry’s ice cream; and climate activist Bill McKibben, to name a few.
“People accuse me of playing the gender card,” Clinton says. “Well, if fighting for women’s health, and equal rights, and equal pay is paying the gender card – deal me in.”
Clinton attacks Sanders on health care
Atop the blog, live now: Hillary Clinton on the stump in Indianola, Iowa. She’s taking it to Sanders on health care.
“Senator Sanders and I share many of the same goals,” Clinton says, but they have different ways of going about them.
“Take health care,” she says. “I want us to defend and build on the progress we have made under president Obama with the Affordable Care Act. ... I want to keep going, keep expanding coverage to more people.
“We can get this done without another divisive debate about our entire health care system and without giving Republicans a window to tear down” what we’ve built.
“Rather than build on the progress we’ve made,” Clinton continues, “[Sanders] wants to start over from scratch with a whole new system.
“In theory, there’s a lot to like about some of his ideas, but in theory isn’t enough. A president has to deliver in reality.”
New Clinton argument: Sanders has been in Washington for 25 years, hasn't gotten 1 vote on his health care plan.
— Abby D. Phillip (@abbydphillip) January 21, 2016
Updated
The campaign of former governor Mike Huckabee has announced that the Republican candidate will be performing with 80’s rock band FireHouse at the Surf Ballroom in Clear Lake, Iowa, tomorrow night.
“I’m thrilled about rocking-out with FireHouse in one of the coolest music venues in the world,” Huckabee says in a statement. “We want everyone to come out and join us for some great music and great times.”
It’s strange that the Huckabee press release says the former governor will “shred base guitar” – as it’s properly a bass guitar and not shreddable so much as slappable. Anyway this is FireHouse:
(h/t: @bencjacobs)
The Guardian’s Adam Gabbatt is on the trail in Iowa, where he checks in with some Nurses for Bernie – and prepares himself for a Demi Lovato performance in support of Clinton.
“I met up with some people from National Nurses United yesterday,” Adam writes:
They’ve got themselves a big bus and they have been following Bernie Sanders all over Iowa. They’ll be trekking across the state until the caucuses on February 1.
Jean Ross is one of the organisation’s co-chairs. She is from Minnesota. But she really likes Bernie so she has flown south for the winter.
She said the nurses have been signing people up for caucuses: “And basically explaining to them why the nation’s most trusted profession supports Bernie”.
They’re averaging about four cities a day. I told Ross that the schedule sounded exhausting.
“Have you every seen nurses work!?” she said.
Here’s their bus, right behind Bernie’s:
Tonight I’ll be in Iowa City, where Demi Lovato is performing at a Hillary Clinton rally. It should be exciting. I have never seen Demi Lovato live before.
My favourite tune from her extensive back catalogue is “Give Your Heart A Break”. It’s really good.
The Clinton camp is out with a new video in which foreign policy adviser Jake Sullivan picks apart what he says are flaws in rival Bernie Sanders’ thinking on foreign policy.
The video is a model of calm argumentation. Sullivan sits in a cubicle at what looks like campaign headquarters and speaks directly to camera. “I have the greatest respect for senator Sanders,” he says, “but when you look at the rest of his ideas, they just don’t make a lot of sense.”
The video follows the release on Tuesday of a letter sent by 10 former senior US diplomats and national security officials calling Sanders’s foreign policy agenda “troubling” and “puzzling.”
Sanders replied to the letter by pointing out that “on the crucial foreign policy issue of our time, it turns out that Secretary Clinton – with all of her experience – was wrong and I was right.”
(h/t: @jeneps)
“You say funny ha-ha, I say Honey Boo-Boo, but I also say Honey Nut Cheerios, they’re great!”
Stephen Colbert turns in a pretty solid Sarah Palin impression, beginning at 4:10 in the clip below. Drawing on Allen Ginsberg’s Howl and Disney’s The Little Mermaid, among other sources for inspiration:
(h/t: @aaronblakewp)
Planned Parenthood: abortion will be 'defining issue'
On the 43rd anniversary of Roe v Wade, Planned Parenthood president Cecile Richards said there has never been a more important election for women’s rights, writes the Guardian’s Lauren Gambino:
“There’s never been an election in which Roe was more clearly on the ballot,” Richards told reporters on Thursday. “I do think it’s going to be a defining issue for voters all across the country.”
Photograph: Steven Senne/AP
At least one and as many as four supreme court appointments are likely to fall to the next president. A conservative majority could overturn Roe V Wade, the 1973 decision protecting a woman’s right to choose.
“Young people in America cannot imagine, and are only now beginning to come to grips with the fact, that there are folks in this country who are either in elective office or are trying to get into elective office that would take away a right that has been the law of the land now for more than 40 years,” Richards said. “It’s been an enormous wake-up call.”
Planned Parenthood has endorsed Hillary Clinton for president, the organization’s first-ever primary endorsement in its century-long existence.
On Wednesday, Clinton’s rival, Vermont senator Bernie Sanders, deemed Planned Parenthood and the host of other liberal organizations and labor unions backing Clinton part of the “establishment”.
Sanders said on MSNBC that his campaign is not only taking on Wall Street and the economic elite, but the “political establishment” as well.
“I have friends and supporters in the Human Rights Fund and Planned Parenthood,” Sanders said, referring to two organizations that have endorsed Clinton. “But you know what? Hillary Clinton has been around there for a very, very long time. Some of these groups are, in fact, part of the establishment.”
Clinton quickly hit back, defending Planned Parenthood: “I wish it were [establishment]. If it were part of the establishment, we wouldn’t have to work so hard to protect it.”
Donald Trump’s lead in polling averages in New Hampshire is 20 points – but steadily strengthening showings by Ohio governor John Kasich are creating buzz that he may have a shot in the Granite State.
“Kasich is banking on New Hampshire’s peculiar primary rules, which allow independents to vote in the Republican primary,” writes my colleague Scott Bixby. “His moderation is on full display during a week-long tour across bluer parts of the state - Kasich is stumping primarily in counties that Barack Obama won during the last presidential election. With 44% of the Granite State’s voters registered as independents, Kasich has a huge (yuge?) opportunity with non-traditional GOP voters.”
The Kasich camp is out with a new ad in which the candidate’s wife, Karen Waldbillig, says, “We really need your help to keep this momentum going.” It’s a series of nice family scenes from the New Hampshire primary trail:
Updated
The governor meets the president after Superstorm Sandy but before the 2012 election. Senator Paul submits the picture without comment. We’d submit that this isn’t much of a hug.
In honor of #NationalHugDay. Submitted without comment. pic.twitter.com/XU1ykhe79f
— Dr. Rand Paul (@RandPaul) January 21, 2016
Presidential contender Chris Christie has resisted demands to “smack” Donald Trump as the Republican party establishment panics over the billionaire celebrity’s seemingly unstoppable rise, writes the Guardian’s David Smith:
... frustration is mounting amid fears that the Republican party could tear itself apart, yet only Jeb Bush has attacked Trump head on. Christie, hosting a town hall event in Derry, was confronted by a female US army veteran who asked:“When are you going to take the gloves off and start smacking him around? You don’t have much time.”
Often described as pugnacious, Christie elicited audience laughter by replying: “You know, I think it’s the first time in my political career that people have said to me you’re not aggressive enough.”
He went on: “Listen, you know when I will? When I think it makes sense to. I’m not in this to just beat Donald Trump. I’m in this to become president of the United States and I’m going to make certain decisions about when I want to say what I’m going to say.”
Read the full piece here.
The Twitter timeline of Ted Cruz’s former Princeton University roommate – who is not a Ted Cruz fan – is worth a browse:
I have 30k followers now, and all I had to do was be stuck in a room with Ted Cruz for a year. I'm sure you're all nice, but SO NOT WORTH IT
— Craig Mazin (@clmazin) January 18, 2016
I'm not a journalist. I'm just a guy who experienced 1000 times the safe level of Cruz exposure. #permanentlywarped https://t.co/PHVxwHrwBz
— Craig Mazin (@clmazin) January 19, 2016
Sounds fun!
New GFS model coming in right now absolutely crushes DC. Historic, mind-boggling snow amounts simulated. Today is day to prep.
— Capital Weather Gang (@capitalweather) January 21, 2016
Trump picks up establishment backing in Arizona. Will the Republican plan to take out Trump turn out to be, “heartily endorse this visionary businessman”?
Donald Trump gets his first endorsement from an incumbent statewide elected official, Jeff DeWit, State Treasurer of Arizona
— Ben Jacobs (@Bencjacobs) January 21, 2016
DeWit told the Arizona Republic:
As I said when I was a candidate and still say in my speeches, our government needs less politicians and more business leaders who understand the economic principles that can put our country’s finances back on a sustainable path.”
Pretty wild to watch GOP establishment embracing Trump in realtime https://t.co/RHqH0bI890 by @ryangrim @samsteinhp pic.twitter.com/ozAXNIccoe
— Jonathan Cohn (@CitizenCohn) January 21, 2016
Updated
Voters don’t expect the nominating races to come out the way that current polling seems to indicate they may come out, writes Guardian US data editor Mona Chalabi. “Either Americans aren’t watching polls or else they simply don’t trust them,” Mona writes:
A poll from Loras college this morning puts Donald Trump and Ted Cruz neck-and-neck, with just 1 percentage point separating them in Iowa. There’s nothing particularly surprising about that finding – it’s not far off the average across all Iowa polls, which has Trump at 28%, Cruz at 27% and Rubio trailing at 11%.
What’s interesting though are the follow-up questions Loras included about expectations. When 1,000 likely 2016 caucus-goers were asked this month who they thought would win Iowa, 38% said Cruz while 29% said Trump.
Those expectations were flipped for the national race, though, where 36% said they thought Trump would be the Republican nominee while only 21% thought Cruz would get the backing of the party.
On the Democrat side, a recent survey from YouGov points to a similar gap between expectations and polling data: people think Sanders has much less of a chance in Iowa than polls suggest. Overall, 51% expect Clinton to win Iowa and only 35% think Sanders can while polling averages suggest it will be a much closer race: 47% Clinton and 43% Sanders.
One comfort for @HillaryClinton in an anxious January is that expectations have shifted: Even a narrow win in IA would be treated as a plus.
— David Axelrod (@davidaxelrod) January 21, 2016
Updated
For your planning purposes, we will be posting live video streams of a Trump event in Las Vegas scheduled to begin at 11.30am ET [changed to] 4.30pm ET, and a Clinton event in Iowa scheduled to begin at about 12.30pm ET.
Have you heard their stump speeches yet? Do you already know them by heart? Let’s watch!
Updated
Republican candidate Carly Fiorina has been accused of “ambushing” a group of children, after she ushered pre-schoolers, who were on a field trip to a botanical garden, into an anti-abortion rally in Des Moines, the Guardian’s Adam Gabbatt reports:
The alleged ambush occurred when Fiorina hosted a “right to life” forum at the Greater Des Moines botanical garden. Entering the rally, before a crowd of about 60 people, she directed around 15 young children towards a makeshift stage.
The problem, one parent said, was that the children’s parents had not given Fiorina permission to have their children sit with her – in front of a huge banner bearing the image of an unborn foetus – while she talked about harvesting organs from aborted babies.
“The kids went there to see the plants,” said Chris Beck, the father of four-year-old Chatham, one of the children Fiorina appeared with. “She ambushed my son’s field trip.”
Read the full piece here.
Updated
Hello and welcome to our live-wire, minute-to-minute coverage of the 2016 presidential election.
It’s an interesting mix today, with Guardian reporters following Hillary Clinton and Ben Carson in Iowa, Donald Trump and Bill Clinton in Nevada and no fewer than four Republican candidates in New Hampshire – Jeb Bush, Chris Christie, Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz. Democrat Bernie Sanders is also campaigning in the Granite State.
In a new ad to air in Iowa, Sanders has gone full Simon & Garfunkel:
Donald Trump dished last night on CNN on what it was like to stand next to Sarah Palin during the rambling 20-minute speech she gave to endorse him on Tuesday.
“I didn’t know it was going to be quite that long,” Trump said.
… but she made a beautiful, you know, she made a very good speech. No, I wasn’t uncomfortable – I was very happy. I would have normally left the stage and let her speak … I thought it would be disrespectful to her if I left the stage. So, no, I wasn’t uncomfortable at all.”
He doesn’t look uncomfortable in this mashup:
Trump spent part of Wednesday hammering Texas senator Ted Cruz, seemingly his closest rival in Iowa, which votes in just 11 days’ time.
This morning it appears the Republican establishment has picked a horse in the Trump-Cruz race – and it is Trump. Bob Dole, the former senator and presidential nominee, told the New York Times Republicans would suffer “cataclysmic” losses with Cruz and that Trump would be better.
Trent Lott, the former Senate majority leader, told the Atlantic he’d take Trump over Cruz if he had to choose. Trump himself pointed out that “Everybody dislikes [Cruz]. I mean, he’s a nasty guy that everybody dislikes.”
Cruz hit back, saying there actually is a new alignment between Trump and the establishment – difficult to argue, except in the case of a Trump-Cruz race – and trying to use it against Trump.
“Right now the Washington establishment is abandoning Marco Rubio, they made an assessment that Marco can’t win this race, and the Washington establishment is rushing over to support Donald Trump,” Cruz told Politico.
We’re seeing that happen every day and Mr Trump is welcoming the support of the Washington establishment.
In other news, Ben Carson resumes campaign activities today after the death on Tuesday of a volunteer, in a van crash.
At the state level, last night emails released to the public indicated that Michigan governor Rick Snyder was informed of water quality issues in the city of Flint as early as February 2015 but his administration struck a dismissive tone, saying the problems would eventually “fade in the rearview”.
And that blizzard bearing down on Washington DC and perhaps NYC – it’s still coming...
That moment when topical news and commentary intersect pic.twitter.com/YPjJwqrbRK
— al tompkins (@atompkins) January 21, 2016
