Reform UK would become the main opposition in Scotland if an election were held tomorrow, a survey has suggested.
The poll from Survation, commissioned by True North Advisors, puts Nigel Farage’s party slightly ahead of Labour as the second-largest political party at Holyrood.
According to the poll, the SNP would remain, by far, the biggest group in the Parliament, with 33% on the constituency vote and 29% on the regional vote.
Reform UK came second with 19% on the constituency vote and 20% on the list vote.
Labour was close behind with 19% on the first-past-the-post vote but fell slightly with 18% on the regional ballot.
The Tories were on 11% and 12% respectively while the Liberal Democrats were on 11% and 10%.
The Greens came in behind at 5% and 9% while Alba was last with 1% and 3% respectively.
According to polling expert Professor Sir John Curtice, the survey would see the SNP fall to 58 seats while Reform would be in second place with 21 seats.
That would make the party the Scottish Parliament’s main opposition in the event the SNP formed the next government.
Labour would place third again with 18 seats while the Tories would slip from Holyrood’s second biggest party to its fourth with just 13 seats.
Under the seat projection, the LibDems would increase its seat count to 10 while the Greens would stay at eight.
A total of 65 seats are needed to form a majority government in the Scottish Parliament.
A slim majority would vote to stay in the UK, the poll also found, with 51% opting for No and 49% for Yes.
“After its success in last week’s English local elections, Reform now pose a significant threat to the Conservatives’ and Labour’s prospects at Holyrood too,” Sir John said.
“More than one in four of those who voted Conservative in last year’s Westminster election and nearly one in five of those who backed Labour have now switched to Reform.
“As a result, Reform’s poll rating in Scotland has risen to 20% for the first time and the party is now a serious competitor for the position of principal opposition party at Holyrood.”
The University of Strathclyde professor said the “fracturing of the unionist vote” in Scotland would be “good news” for the First Minister.
He said: “Even though the party’s share of the vote is now well down on May 2021, it could still win the bulk of Holyrood’s first past the post seats and, as a result, be left with only a little short of its current tally of MSPs at Holyrood.
“Crucially, the fragmentation of Scotland’s politics could help ease the path towards another pro-independence majority at Holyrood at a time when, still, almost half of Scotland would like to leave the UK.”
Fergus Mutch, True North’s managing partner, said: “A year out from a Holyrood election, our latest poll presents a fascinating set of results.
“The SNP remains, by some distance, the largest party but will have to look to other parties for the support needed to secure a working majority.
“The party of independence will, however, be asking itself why its electoral support lags so far behind the 49% of voters who wish to see Scotland go it alone.
“Reform UK, buoyed by their recent success in English local elections, are nipping at Labour’s heels on the constituency vote in Scotland and now a nose ahead on the list.
“Converting these figures into seats, we’re at a tipping point where they emerge as the second party in Scottish politics heading into a May 2026 election – representing a significant breakthrough north of the border.
“Anas Sarwar continues to struggle to catch a break – with the woes of his party at a UK level reflecting on his support in Scotland – and Reform UK nibbling away at enough of his vote share to prove a problem for him.
“The Conservatives, meanwhile, are being monstered by Reform and are at risk of tumbling from second to fourth place in Scottish politics.”
Some 1,020 people aged 16 or over were polled between May 2 and 5 for the survey.
Commenting afterwards, Reform councillor for Shettleston, Thomas Kerr, said: “As all political parties gear up towards Holyrood 2026, Reform UK does so with a spring in our step and passion in our hearts.
“We know Scotland is broken and those SNP and Labour politicians who broke it will be held accountable next year. There’s a lot of ground to cover, a lot of scrutiny to come but Reform UK is ready for the challenge ahead.
“To our opponents, we say, bring it. Scotland badly needs real fundamental change and only Reform UK will fix the mess the mainstream establishment parties have created.
“As today’s Survation poll shows, Reform UK is the only political party in Scotland with momentum and now the clear opposition to this rotten SNP Government.”
