All signs are pointing towards the Boston Red Sox heavily selling before the trade deadline on Kalshi, with both Aroldis Chapman and Sonny Gray as the top two pitchers on the prediction market board most likely to be moved. Chapman is far more likely to be traded than Gray.
Chapman sits at the second-highest price on Kalshi's trade market at 71%, while Gray is priced at 52%. Champman’s price has been above 70% for over a month, while Gray has leveled around the 50% mark.
Will Aroldis Chapman be traded? - Kalshi
- Yes 71%
- No 29%
Will Sonny Gray be traded? - Kalshi
- Yes 52%
- No 48%
Trading $10 on either of them to be traded profits $3.43 for Chapman and $8.26 for Gray. This market settles on whether they’re traded by August 5th, two days after the MLB trade deadline.
Red Sox leaning towards selling
While Boston is still in position to claim a wild-card playoff spot ahead of the second half of the season, they have serious decisions to make on Chapman and Gray. Both are on expiring contracts. That said, if Boston misses the playoffs, it’s hard to see either re-signing.
In the eyes of Boston’s GM, Craig Breslow, we’d have to imagine that he’d rather gain value for both of them rather than let them walk for free.
Chapman a trade lock?
Aroldis Chapman is Boston’s most likely trade piece and one of the most in-demand players on the market ahead of the deadline. He’s one of the elite relievers in the league at a 2.20 ERA, 19 saves, and just eight runs allowed on 23 hits. At his $13 million contract with an option for 2027, Chapman is a contender's dream.
Gray’s case to stay put
Sonny Gray’s price is not a sure thing. There are more reasons for him to stay put than there are to trade him, even on an expiring deal of his own. He is undoubtedly the best pitcher on Boston’s roster. If Boston does make a run for a wildcard spot, it would lose serious pitching if it trades Gray.
He’s one of the top pitchers in the league with an 11-1 record and boasts a 2.54 ERA. Both top-5 in the league.
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