Grain growers are set to enjoy another record-breaking year for Australian farm exports, according to the national commodity forecaster ABARES.
The forecaster's June estimates for Australian agricultural production are tipping exports to hit $65 billion in 2022–23, just higher than last year's figure.
While, for only the second time, the total value of all farm produce will exceed $80 billion.
Record-high grain prices, another wet summer and a favourable start to winter, as well as poor seasonal conditions in other grain-growing regions around the world, are driving the numbers higher this season, according to ABARES.
Ukraine has consistently been among the world's top exporters of grain and oilseeds, and Russia's invasion in March sent prices for those commodities skyrocketing.
La Niña, the same climatic system bringing drenching rains to Australia's east coast, is causing droughts in India and Pakistan, France and sub-Saharan Africa, as well as extremely dry conditions in grain-growing regions of the USA, Canada and South America.
Australian farmers have responded to these cues, planting 1 per cent more wheat than they did last year, at 13.2 million hectares, and a record amount of canola, at 3.4 million hectares.
"One of the things we're seeing given the really high back-to-back crops is a high pace of exports," ABARES executive director Jared Greenville said.
"In the 12 months to March this year is a combined monthly average of 3 million tonnes of wheat, barley and canola leaving Australian ports, which is equally as high as the bumper 2016–17 crop."
In a separate report published last week, Rabobank analysts said Australian wheat exports could hit 26 million tonnes this season — about 50 per cent above the 10-year average.
Horticulture record
The value of fruit, nut and vegetable production for 2022–23 is also forecast to break a record; at $13.5 billion it will be the most valuable crop ever harvested.
That is mainly due to the loss of crops in flood-hit areas of Queensland and New South Wales, as well as soaring prices for fuel, gas and fertiliser.
Unfortunately, food prices in Australia will not ease over the coming 12 months, because even as flood-hit farms return to production, input and distribution costs will remain high enough for those expenses to be felt at the check-out, according to ABARES.
"It's unlikely [that prices will fall] given the pressures we've got in terms of the demand pulling grain and meat prices higher, and the supply-side impact of higher input costs," Mr Greenville said.
Consumer prices of fruit rose 4.9 per cent over the March quarter of 2022 and vegetables rose 6.6 per cent.
