ANALYSIS — Democrats have a difficult and narrow road to the Senate majority, but Republicans apparently want to make it a bit easier.
While Oklahoma Sen. Markwayne Mullin’s expected departure to join President Donald Trump’s Cabinet doesn’t alter the Senate battleground, Montana Sen. Steve Daines’ last-minute drop changes the landscape. It was an unforced error that gives Democrats an opening where they previously had none.
Montana is a Republican state. A little more than a year ago, Trump finished ahead of Kamala Harris by 20 points and Republican Tim Sheehy defeated Democratic Sen. Jon Tester by 8 points. With those recent results, no one was seriously talking about the Montana Senate race this cycle, until Daines stepped aside minutes before the filing deadline in an attempt to hand off his seat to U.S. Attorney Kurt Alme.
Those shenanigans are enough to create some uncertainty in the race. And they are also the reason why states such as Nebraska have different filing deadlines for incumbents and non-incumbents.
While Republicans are still favored to hold Montana, it’s not hard to see how a combination of excited Democrats, independent voters who are dissatisfied with the party in power and Republicans who don’t appreciate an attempted coronation make Big Sky Country competitive in an environment that won’t favor the party in power.
If Daines had dropped out of the race even just a couple days before the filing deadline, Republicans probably would have avoided any potential backlash that could be headed their way now.
Republicans shouldn’t be surprised that some people are upset with what Daines did. In November, when Democratic Rep. Jesus “Chuy” Garcia of Illinois pulled a similar stunt with his chief of staff, House Republicans (and some Democrats) publicly rebuked him. In the Montana scenario, Daines and Trump endorsed Alme. And Daines, a former chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, should have known that his plan could potentially jeopardize the party’s chances of holding the seat and thus the majority.
Inside Elections has changed the rating of the Montana Senate race from Solid Republican to Likely Republican. That means Democrats likely need to win races in two of five Republican states (Alaska, Iowa, Montana, Ohio and Texas) rather than two of four, assuming Democrats hold all of their own seats, including competitive races in Georgia, Michigan and New Hampshire. GOP-held seats in Maine and North Carolina are also competitive for Democrats.
Oklahoma remains rated Solid Republican. Once Mullins is confirmed and resigns, GOP Gov. Kevin Stitt will get to appoint a caretaker who will serve until someone is elected for the full term in November. Despite all the shuffling, there’s no reason to believe Democrats will put up much of a fight in the Sooner State.
Overall, Republicans are still favored to maintain control of the Senate, but Democrats are in better shape than at the beginning of the cycle. In January 2025, Inside Elections rated just two Republican-held seats as vulnerable (North Carolina and Maine). Now there are seven. That certainly doesn’t guarantee Democrats will gain the four they need, but those are much better odds.
The Senate battleground could still grow even further in favor of Democrats. Democratic Rep. Sharice Davids would make GOP Sen. Roger Marshall work for reelection in Kansas. And even though independent Dan Osborn lost to Sen. Deb Fischer in 2024, a better political environment could help him knock off Sen. Pete Ricketts in 2026.
Even with those two additional states, Democrats still have a better chance of winning the House majority, where the party doesn’t need an electoral wave because it doesn’t have to win heavily Republican districts. The Senate is different and more difficult, but the path is there, and slightly wider than it was a couple weeks ago.
