The novel coronavirus is spreading rapidly to regional cities outside the Tokyo metropolitan and Kansai areas, with the number of new cases in 12 prefectures exceeding 1.5 times that of the previous week.
Observers predict that figure is likely to double in the near future in Hokkaido and Ishikawa, Gifu, Tottori, Okayama, Hiroshima, Yamaguchi, Kagawa, Saga, Nagasaki, Kumamoto, and Miyazaki prefectures.
It is estimated that cases involving the highly infectious N501Y mutation, mainly the British variant, have increased to more than 90% nationwide, which is believed to be a factor in the rapid spread.
In the week through Tuesday, the number of new cases has increased more than 1.5 times compared with the previous week in the 12 prefectures.
It has been said that if the number of cases increases at a rate of 1.5 times that of the previous week, the number of new cases will more than double in two weeks, and the spread of the outbreak will be uncontrollable.
On the other hand, the number of new cases in Tokyo and Osaka Prefecture was 0.98 times and 0.79 times higher than the previous week, respectively, due to a decrease in the volume of foot traffic after the declaration of a state of emergency. While the number of new cases remained high, a slight downward trend was seen.
Infections have spread from the Tokyo metropolitan area and the Kansai region, which were the main centers, to areas that were not previously subject to the declaration of a state of emergency or emergency-level priority measures to prevent the spread.
In Okayama Prefecture, where the number of new cases has been more than 100 for eight consecutive days, the shortage of hospital beds has become increasingly acute, with the occupancy rate of hospital beds rising from 22% on April 13 to 71% on Tuesday. The hospital bed occupancy rate for the critically ill jumped from 9% to 60% in the prefecture.
"We are obviously affected by variants. The way to fight against the virus is changing," Okayama Gov. Ryuta Ibaragi said.
In Hokkaido, where the number of new cases reached a record high for the second consecutive day, the hospital bed occupancy rate in Sapporo exceeded 90% as of Wednesday.
In some cases in Sapporo, ambulances were forced to return patients to their homes because they could not find a hospital to accept them.
In Fukushima Prefecture, some medical institutions in Aizuwakamatsu have reached a nearly 100% occupancy rate of hospital beds, with some sending patients to hospitals over a wide area including the cities of Fukushima and Koriyama.
There also are cases in which patients have to wait at home for several days before being hospitalized.
The National Institute of Infectious Diseases estimates that more than 90% of the novel coronaviruses in the nation have been replaced by the N501Y mutation from the conventional strain. The institute said the infectivity of coronavirus variants is expected to be 1.3 times higher, and the risk of developing serious COVID-19 symptoms is to be 1.4 times higher.
"Now that the virus has been replaced by variants, it will be too late to take the same measures as before," Jikei University School of Medicine Prof. Mitsuyoshi Urashima said. "The government should do its best regarding vaccinations, and prefectures should take the initiative and hurry to secure hospital beds and other measures as soon as possible."
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