There are six weeks left in the 2025 MLB season, and nothing has been decided.
Four division leaders are within five games of second place, and the wild-card picture in both leagues is a muddled mess. Everything is still to play for over the next month and a half, and it should be as exciting a finish as we have seen in years.
We’ve broken down each division race, ranking them based on how interesting they’ll be down the stretch.
1. NL West
The best rivalry in baseball is back in focus. The Padres and Dodgers are locked in a battle atop the division and are set to duke it out for NL West supremacy over the next few weeks. San Diego jumped into first place Wednesday night, and the teams will play six times in the next 10 days. Those games should be electric and could get a little chaotic, given the history here.
This is the latest in the season the Padres have held sole possession of first place in the NL West since 2010. They have been on fire, winning 14 of their past 17 games and getting excellent performances across the board. The team’s trade deadline acquisitions have all contributed, but while Mason Miller was the biggest name the Padres landed, left fielder Ramon Laureano (.333/.400/.600) and catcher Freddy Fermin (.355/.394/.484) have provided the most significant upgrades. The Friars are playing their best baseball of the season and peaking at the right time.
The Dodgers have stumbled, but should never be counted out. Shohei Ohtani is cruising to another MVP award and is starting to go deeper into games on the mound. The team’s loaded starting rotation is finally healthy, and there’s no doubting L.A. has the best roster in baseball. The defending champs won’t go down without a fight. Over the past few years, every time San Diego gets close, Dave Roberts’s squad seems to turn it on. The Padres have been Charlie Brown, and the Dodgers are Lucy with a football. Will that happen again this season?
Though L.A. and San Diego only play six times before the end of the season, it feels like they’re destined to see each other again in the playoffs. That would mark the fourth time in six seasons they have squared off in the postseason.
Major League Baseball has to be salivating at the prospect.
2. AL East
The Blue Jays have a five-game lead in the division and the American League’s best record, but the Red Sox and Yankees are both still within striking distance. Boston and New York hold the two final wild-card spots as well, so the next few weeks have the potential to get tense.
The Yankees host the Red Sox for four games next week, then the teams square off at Fenway Park for three games the second weekend of September. Meanwhile, Toronto travels to Yankee Stadium for three games the first weekend in September and gets Boston at home for three during the season’s final week. Those series could decide the division.
What the Blue Jays have done this season is remarkable, and their success is almost as shocking as the Orioles’ failures. The Yankees were expected to run away with the division and now look like they'll be fighting for a spot in the playoffs until Game 162. Meanwhile, Boston traded its best hitter and somehow got better. Baseball is funny like that.
Toronto has the inside track to win this thing, but all three teams have a chance, and there’s a decent shot they'll all be in the postseason.
3. AL West
The Astros have won the AL West in each of the past seven full seasons (the Athletics won during the COVID-19 shortened 2020 campaign), and lead the division this year. But this might be the fiercest battle they've had in those years.
The Mariners are hot on Houston’s heels, trailing by 1.5 games heading into the weekend. Seattle went all-in at the trade deadline, acquiring third baseman Eugenio Suárez, first baseman Josh Naylor and lefty reliever Caleb Ferguson. They splurged to add punch to their offense alongside MVP candidate Cal Raleigh, who continues his historic offensive pace. Given their rotation, they should stay in the race until the very end.
Houston didn't stand pat at the deadline, as they brought back former franchise cornerstone Carlos Correa. The results of the reunion have been excellent so far, as the 30-year-old boasts a .974 OPS in his 11 games back with the team. Fellow deadline acquisitions Ramón Urias and Jesús Sánchez haven’t provided the same punch yet, but stay tuned.
The Astros will host the Mariners for three games from September 19 to 21, and those matchups could determine who wins the division. Houston may be doing it without star closer Josh Hader, who just hit the IL with a shoulder strain.
It’s worth noting that while the Rangers have fallen off the pace a bit, they’re only 3.5 games out of the final wild-card spot. The division may be out of reach at 7.5 games off the pace, but given the team’s dominant starting staff led by Jacob deGrom and Nathan Eovaldi, Texas can’t be counted out.
4. NL Central
Raise your hand if you thought the Brewers would be the best team in baseball by mid-August. Anyone with their hand up needs to put it down. Somehow, that’s precisely what has happened.
Milwaukee has reeled off 12 consecutive wins and now has the best record in baseball by six games. The Brewers also boast the best run differential in the game at +159, 44 runs more than their nearest competition (more on that later). They lead the Padres by 7.5 for the best record in the National League, so they’ve all but sewn up the top seed at this point.
The Cubs picked the wrong season to go all-in because no matter how good they’ve been, Milwaukee has been that much better. Chicago is now eight games back of the Brewers in the NL Central despite boasting the second-best run differential in MLB at +115. The Northsiders own the top wild-card spot by 4.5 games over the Dodgers and look like a postseason lock. If the Cubs want to top Milwaukee, it’s looking like they’ll have to wait for the playoffs.
The Central’s playoff intrigue doesn’t end with the top two. The Reds are still in the postseason hunt thanks to the Mets’ big-time collapse. Cincinnati is a half-game behind New York for the final wild-card spot, and Fangraphs gives them a 20% chance to make the playoffs. That’s not insignificant. The addition of Miguel Andujar at the trade deadline has been tremendous. In 10 games, the 30-year-old has three home runs, is slugging .778 and has an OPS of 1.247. The Reds are having a fantastic season and, like the Brewers, no one saw this coming. They could be dangerous down the stretch.
5. NL East
The slumping Mets have allowed the Phillies to build a five-game lead in the NL East as we enter the weekend. It’s unlikely Philadelphia will surrender that advantage.
Though the Nationals just swept them, no one should be worrying about the Phillies. They boast a dominant starting rotation with two Cy Young contenders in Cristopher Sánchez and Zack Wheeler, plus Ranger Suárez, Jesús Luzardo and a now-healthy Aaron Nola. Meanwhile, Kyle Schwarber is having a career year to pace an offense that has even more juice than it has shown. Philly addressed its bullpen woes at the trade deadline and looks like a far more complete team than we saw a few weeks ago.
The Mets, well ... the Mets have had a rough go of it. They have lost 13 of their past 15 games, and the offense has gone in the tank. Francisco Lindor has been emblematic of the team’s struggles, as he’s hitting .181 with a .538 OPS over the past 25 games. New York is now barely hanging on to the final wild-card spot, opening the weekend a half-game ahead of the Reds.
The Mets host the Phillies for three games starting on Aug. 25, then travel to Philadelphia for four beginning on Sept. 8. Just before that, they go to Cincinnati to face the Reds. There are plenty of opportunities for Juan Soto & Co. to make up ground, but they need to get it together.
If the Mets bounce back, this could get interesting down the stretch. As of now, expect to watch them battle for a wild-card spot while the Phillies roll to their second consecutive division title.
6. AL Central
The Tigers have had a stranglehold on the AL Central for months, though their grip has loosened recently. Detroit led the division by 14 games on July 7, and Cleveland was in fourth, 15.5 games back. Now, the Guardians sit 6.5 games back and are closing hard.
It’s unlikely the Tigers will give up the lead, but things could get dicey if they don’t find more consistency. Detroit hosts Cleveland from Sept. 16 to 18, and goes to Progressive Field for three games starting on Sept. 23. So six of the season’s final 12 games will see the division’s top two teams facing off.
If you want intrigue, tune in to watch Tarik Skubal do Tarik Skubal things. He’s baseball’s best pitcher by a solid stretch right now, and he's leading the Tigers from the front. Detroit's offense is also excellent, ranking eighth in MLB with 588 runs scored and an OPS of .737. Despite that, the Tigers haven't locked this thing up quite yet.
As for the Guardians, their late-season magic is more than improbable. A few weeks ago, they were looking to sell at the deadline and even traded franchise mainstay Shane Bieber. On top of that, they had their All-Star closer and a starting pitcher put on leave amid a gambling investigation, and they only have two hitters in the lineup with a WAR higher than 1.6. Your guess for their success is as good as mine.
Cleveland is a half-game behind the Yankees for the American League’s final wild card slot, and it would be foolish to count them out at this point.
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This article was originally published on www.si.com as Ranking MLB Division Races With Six Weeks to Go.
