The Kansas City Chiefs are locked in as the No. 3 seed in the AFC playoff picture. As a result, head coach Andy Reid has elected to sit some of the team’s stars in the season finale.
Patrick Mahomes is among the starters who have been confirmed to be no-gos against the Los Angeles Chargers in Week 18. The status of Travis Kelce, Chris Jones, Isaiah Pacheco, L’Jarius Sneed, and other notable players are unknown, though they are expected to be given some rest ahead of the playoffs.
Though their opponent for the first round of the playoffs will depend on the results of games across the AFC, the list of teams that Kansas City could face in the first round of the playoffs includes the Miami Dolphins, Buffalo Bills, Pittsburgh Steelers, Indianapolis Colts, and Houston Texans.
While Buffalo or Miami are the most likely teams to face the Chiefs in the first round, some scenarios open up opportunities for other squads to face Kansas City as the No. 6 seed.
Take a look at which matchups would be most favorable for the Chiefs in the first week of the AFC playoffs:
1. Indianapolis Colts
Shane Steichen’s Colts have been one of the best stories in the NFL this season, but that magic is likely to come to an end in the playoffs. Quarterback Gardner Minshew has played to the best of his abilities this season but has proven to be a subpar signal-caller on the road.
In road games this season, Minshew has a 79.8 QBR, while throwing seven touchdowns and six interceptions.
In addition to poor quarterback play away from home, Indianapolis possesses one of the worst run defenses in the league, which the Chiefs should be able to exploit in a potential matchup.
2. Pittsburgh Steelers
Despite poor quarterback play and underwhelming play-calling, the Steelers have found themselves in the playoff hunt entering Week 18
Pittsburgh has been carried by its defense for multiple seasons, and with Mason Rudolph slated to be their starting quarterback, that formula will likely carry over into any elimination games the Steelers play during the postseason.
3. Houston Texans
Houston is another team that has exceeded expectations this season with rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud and first-year head coach DeMeco Ryans.
Stroud has not only been the best rookie quarterback in the NFL, but one of the best signal-callers in the entire league. The former Ohio State quarterback is among the favorites to win Offensive Rookie of the Year honors.
Unfortunately for the Texans, youth, inexperience, and a season-ending injury to dynamic receiver Tank Dell are the reasons why Houston would struggle against Kansas City on the road.
Stroud is well on his way to becoming a superstar quarterback, but facing the Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium in his first career playoff game would be a worst-case scenario for him.
4. Miami Dolphins
In Week 9, Kansas City’s secondary held Dolphins receiver Tyreek Hill to just 62 receiving yards without a touchdown and forced a game-changing fumble late in the first half that helped the Chiefs secure a 21-14 win in Frankfurt, Germany.
While a tilt between Kansas City and Miami may look a bit different in the playoffs than it did in Week 9, it isn’t a stretch to think defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo could make lightning strike twice against Miami’s high-octane offense.
One thing is certain, though: The Dolphins won’t be an easy out in an elimination scenario, and the Chiefs won’t be able to take a matchup against Miami for granted, even with a home-field advantage.
5. Buffalo Bills
Josh Allen’s otherworldly talent makes the Bills the toughest potential opponent for the Chiefs in the first round of the playoffs.
Allen has found great success in Arrowhead Stadium the last two years and orchestrated back-breaking plays when Kansas City’s defense had Buffalo’s back against the wall.
The playoffs often come down to quarterback play, and while the Bills may possess a lower floor, their ceiling on offense is extremely high.
