Three races across three very different types of circuits are enough to suggest that Mercedes is the dominant force in Formula 1. The Silver Arrows are back on top – and it will take a lot for its rivals to stop the team from winning both championships. As for the drivers’ title, Russell was the on-paper favourite heading into the season, and he underlined that status with a dominant win in Melbourne.
However, the next two rounds – in different ways – saw him beaten by his 19-year-old team-mate Kimi Antonelli. There are several factors behind Russell losing the early championship lead, but it is now fair to ask whether he still remains the man to beat.
Our international panel of writers offers their view.
It won’t be a walk in the park
Federico Faturos, Motorsport.com Latin America:
After an entire pre-season pointing to George Russell as the favourite for the 2026 title amid expectations of Mercedes dominance, it would be harsh to throw him under the bus after just three grands prix, in which he has taken a win, a sprint victory, a second place and… OK, Suzuka wasn’t exactly his finest weekend.
Even allowing for the fact Russell did not have a “perfect” car, as Toto Wolff pointed out, Antonelli looked to have the edge across the weekend. The Italian had already hinted at it in practice, finishing just 0.026s adrift in FP1 before beating Russell in the following two sessions. In other words, the signs were already there.
Still, that alone is not enough to dethrone Russell as the man to beat. Not yet. He was faultless in Australia and, in China, he controlled the weekend from the outset, topping the only practice session and dictating the sprint running until a gearbox issue derailed his Q3. Antonelli seized the opportunity and executed flawlessly, as any top driver should.
The broader picture, however, still leans in Russell’s favour. This is his eighth season in Formula 1, compared to Antonelli’s second, and that experience will inevitably tell over the course of a long campaign. If anything, it is Antonelli who has shown the rougher edges so far: a heavy crash in Melbourne FP3, a clash with Isack Hadjar in the Shanghai sprint, and a pattern of inconsistent starts. All of which is entirely understandable for a 19-year-old with just 27 grands prix to his name.
So yes, Russell remains the title favourite. But Antonelli has already made one thing clear: converting that status into a championship will be anything but a formality.
There's a belief in Italy...
Giacomo Rauli, Motorsport.com Italy:
When something unexpected happens just once, we say: “One swallow does not make a summer.” And Antonelli’s victory in China initially felt like exactly that – an isolated flash – only to be emphatically confirmed two weeks later at Suzuka, one of Formula 1’s most demanding proving grounds.
After three races, the Italian holds a 2–1 edge over Russell in terms of wins, and in Italy there is a growing belief that the Bologna-born driver could genuinely eclipse Russell’s star. Yet within the paddock, it is never wise to get carried away. What matters is to assess events carefully, interpret them with clarity, and only then form a considered judgment.
Russell remains the leading contender for the world title. In two of the three races so far, he has been markedly unlucky – just consider the safety car timing and the battery issues that compromised his race in Japan. He is widely regarded as one of the top three talents on the current grid, alongside Verstappen and Leclerc, and he brings significantly more experience than Antonelli. Crucially, he also wields greater political influence within the sport; he knows when and how to make his voice heard.
In short, Russell still has everything required to be considered the man to beat. But he now knows that simply ticking the boxes will no longer suffice – he will need to be virtually flawless on every occasion.
Japan illustrates how a title can start slipping away
Stuart Codling, Autosport:
Realistically, we're three grand prix weekends into what will be a 22-round season, so it's too early to talk definitively about which of the Mercedes drivers is the favourite for the title – if indeed they are the only contenders, for who knows what may eventuate as the rules are tinkered with in the coming months?
But the lesson from the past two rounds, particularly the most recent, is how quickly small problems can compound into larger ones. In Japan, Russell laboured to find the optimal setup to be as quick as Antonelli, ultimately resorting to a setup change in qualifying that made the car worse rather than better. He then had to carry that disadvantage into the race, where he would likely have been beaten by Antonelli even without the safety car.
Indeed, the safety car prevented a "George, it's Toto" scenario, which would have been damaging on many levels.
At the beginning of last year, there was a feeling within the Motorsport.com team that this was perhaps Lando Norris' last clear shot at the title before Oscar Piastri matured into the full package. That picture then shifted as Piastri got the upper hand over his team-mate early on and roared into what looked like an unassailable lead... until the latter third of the season.
We had similar feelings about Russell vs Antonelli this year. Right now, it looks like it might be too late for Russell – but, as the late Murray Walker used to say, F1 is "if" spelled backwards (actually that would be "1F", but you get the point).
Too early to tell
Mike Mulder, Motorsport.com Netherlands:
Although everyone is rightly talking about Antonelli and his title chances, Russell remains firmly in the title conversation, no doubt.
Two years ago, during the Belgian Grand Prix weekend, I found myself dining with several Motorsport.com colleagues at a fine Ardennes restaurant when Antonelli entered with his father and quietly took a seat nearby. The youngster cut a modest figure, glancing around shyly from beneath a Mercedes-branded cap. We couldn’t hear their conversation, but that hardly mattered. The questions that lingered in my mind at the time were far more compelling: just how good is this 17-year-old kid? What will his immediate future look like? And, perhaps most importantly, how will he cope with the extraordinary pressure already being placed upon him?
Fast forward a few weeks to August 30, 2024, when Antonelli made his Formula 1 debut at Monza – and did so in dramatic fashion. Moments into FP1, he buried his W15 in the tyre barriers at Parabolica. Too young? Too eager? Or simply the weight of expectation in front of a home crowd? In truth, perhaps a combination of all three. Since then, Antonelli has undergone a steep and valuable learning curve, establishing himself as a serious title contender – even for the harshest sceptics. But the nature of such curves is that they are never entirely linear.
Even though Antonelli has beaten Russell in the last two races, the Brit’s chances of securing a first world title are far from over. Yes, he has faced setbacks, but we are only three races in, and Antonelli will not be immune to adversity either. There will be growing pains, missteps, and difficult weekends along the way – both on and off the track. None of that diminishes his credentials as a title contender – but only on a par with Russell, given that both drivers benefit from what is the benchmark car at Mercedes. Whether, in the end, the raw talent of Antonelli or the experience of Russell will prevail is too early to tell, but for the moment, they are both in the hot seat.
Antonelli isn’t the only threat
Oleg Karpov, Motorsport.com Global edition:
Hope is the last thing to die, isn’t it?
There’s no doubt Mercedes currently holds a significant advantage. But how much of that is down to the fact that the Brackley engineers were in a privileged position to develop the W17 in sync with the Brixworth powertrain department? There’s no evidence to suggest Mercedes has treated its customers unfairly, but it’s also clear that McLaren cannot enjoy the same level of integration simply due to its status as a customer team. Yet it is also catching up quickly – and Japan was a prime example of why you cannot discount the reigning world champions.
Unfortunately for someone like Piastri, the start of the season has been far from ideal, with a significant number of points already lost to Mercedes and Ferrari drivers. But the season is still long.
It’s the development race that is likely to prove decisive this year – and McLaren has repeatedly shown that it is among the very best when it comes to upgrading its car. It is far too early to write it off – and it would be irresponsible for Mercedes to do so as well. After all, Ferrari started 2022 with clearly the best car, yet it was evident long before the end of the season that no titles would be heading to Maranello, with Red Bull outperforming the Scuderia on all fronts.
If you ask me, the hope remains very much alive – not only for McLaren to defend its constructors’ title, but even for Piastri to challenge for the drivers’ championship. And the same goes for Ferrari, Charles Leclerc and Lewis Hamilton.
