AROUND a quarter of people who voted for Scottish independence in 2014 backed Reform UK or Labour at the latest election, new figures have shown.
Ipsos carried out post-election research to learn about voting trends in Scotland, and find out how voters made their minds up before May 7.
As part of its research, the polling firm interviewed 3162 adults aged over 16 across the country from May 8 to May 13.
Among its findings was the statistic that while the SNP are certainly the most popular party among those who supported a Yes vote in 2014 – with 67% of Yes voters supporting them in the constituency vote and 51% giving them their list vote – some 13% of those Yes voters backed Reform in the constituency vote on polling day, while 10% voted Labour.
Outside of that lens, other notable findings on voting behaviour included high levels of youth support for the Scottish Greens. Nearly a third (30%) of people aged under 35 voted Green on the list, making them the most popular party among that demographic.
Meanwhile, this demographic did not have much backing for Reform UK, with just 11% of the age cohort giving the party their constituency vote, compared to 17% among older age groups.
Men were more likely to vote for Reform, with 18% backing them in the constituency compared to 14% of women. The party also saw higher support among non university graduates (18%) than graduates (11%).
Elsewhere, Ipsos found that a third (32%) of voters did not decide how they would vote until the final week of the campaign.
Those who did not vote cited not trusting any parties, or their respective leaders, as their reason for abstaining. Turnout was substantially down on 2021, going from a record of 63.5% to 53.2% this year.
Among the most important issues for voters were the NHS, with 50% calling it the main factor in deciding how to vote, and independence (34%).
Immigration was unsurprisingly a major issue for supporters of Reform more so than other party. Some 76% of Reform constituency voters mentioned immigration as a factor in their vote, compared to 28% of Tory voters, 18% of Labour voters, 16% of LibDem voters and 15% of SNP voters.
Finally, the SNP were most likely to be viewed by voters as the party of change, despite having governed Scotland for 19 years.
Among SNP constituency voters, 44% said they backed them as the party "most likely to provide Scotland with the change it needs". This was higher than the percentage of Reform voters (38%) or Labour voters (20%) saying the same for their respective parties.
Rachel Ormston, research director at Ipsos in Scotland, said: "Our post-election poll confirms that many voters remained uncertain how they would cast their vote until very shortly before they entered the ballot box.
"It also highlights the uphill battle other parties face in making further inroads to the SNP’s lead – even after 19 years, the SNP are more likely to be seen as the party of change by their voters than are Labour or Reform among their voters.
"And all parties should be concerned, particularly after a lower-turnout election, that the most common reason given for not voting at all is not trusting any of the parties or leaders."
