According to MCV, sales of PS3 and Xbox 360 are 'within a hair's breadth of each other' in terms of total number of units shifted this year. However, although PS3 made a promising early splash, Xbox 360 has fought itself in front, utilising a price drop and the launch of the Elite machine to claim better week-on-week figures in the run up to Christmas. ChartTrack director Dorian Block reckons that Microsoft will retain the upperhand:
The consoles are at different stages of their lifecycles, and long-term the sales balance could easily shift. But unless a PS3 price cut comes in - and after Tokyo Games show it looks unlikely - it's difficult to see the 360 not selling more by the end of the year.
Interestingly, PS3 managed 55% of its sales in the four weeks following the launch, suggesting that it's the diehard PlayStation fans who've kept the machine afloat. The lack of killer apps since that date has meant that momentum hasn't built. As one commentator on the MCV story pointed out, this can be spun in PS3's favour - the machine is 'keeping up with' Xbox 360, despite having no real 'must-have' titles on the shelves. Microsoft's machine, on the other hand, has Gears of War (still the biggest game on Xbox Live), Bioshock and Halo 3 - plus a cheaper price point and a well-established online gaming system.
Update: Of course, as someone points out below, take off that big opening month for PS3 and it's limping along like a sickly kitten...
Of course, while this intriguing duel is going on, Wii is just whizzing off into the distance. But there's a problem...
Nintendo of America president Reggie Fils-Aime has just admitted that the company is unlikely to meet demand this Christmas. He was talking about North America, but if they're not getting enough, the UK certainly won't.
Is there a window of opportunity here for the two other machines? High-profile non-Wii releases like Assassin's Creed, Army of Two, Call of Duty 4, Kane and Lynch and PES 2008 may draw attention away from Nintendo's machine. In terms of platform exclusives, Microsoft has pretty much laid its Christmas cards on the table with Halo 3, although it can rely on Mass Effect and Project Gotham Racing 4 to garner some interest. Sony has Gran Turismo 5 Prologue, Haze and Unreal Tournament 3 on the way...
...plus there's probably enough time for a cheeky price drop. Of course Kaz Hirai claimed during his TGS keynote that this wouldn't happen until the content was there to back it up. Instead, there were indications that Sony planned to emphasise the machine's role as a Blu-ray home movie player in the run up to the festive season. Hmmm, okay, but if Nintendo is struggling with Wii numbers, surely the option of a smash and grab raid on disappointed shoppers shouldn't be overlooked? It all might be too late by the time Metal Gear Solid 4 comes out, let alone by the time enough people care about Blu-ray.
